Interesting bubble choice

10+1 SNG on Party, Blinds are 100/200. 4 players left. This is from memory, but close, values are after posting the blinds.

SB T250<-- left the tourney, auto-folds every hand.
BB T2500
Hero T950
UTG+1 T4000

Hero is dealt AA and ???

If I min-raise, I'm unlikely to steal the blinds. If I push and lose, I kick myself because I know the SB is going to fold out and very likely put me into 3rd. Even if the SB wins his showdown when the SB comes to him again he'll only have 100 chips so he'll be all in again on the BB as well.

Do you fold AA preflop? If I bet 2-3x the blinds and get a call, what then? Any bet post flop will get called and I risk busting out in 4th when 3rd is all but a lock.

I ended up pushing and getting the blinds, but I wonder if in hindsight that was the right thing to do.

[bluefeet]

Bust or not...you can't pass up on this chance to get 'back in the hunt'. Actually, I wouldn't pass on any 'monster' here (AA-QQ, AK, etc.). Your willingness to push despite SB should be well respected. Not to mention you still have FE over BB.

AND...if bigstack KNOWS that you KNOW that they should "respect" your push - thus KNOWING that you might actually be pushing anything...you might just get called by his KJ or such /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[nyc999]

I would push this every time. You are an overwhelming favorite over the range of hands that call you. If you somehow get busted, oh well. Most times you win the blinds or double up.

This is the time to build chips and play for more than 3rd.

[lorinda]

I push this. if you are on a site where the Vacant seat doesn't even get to see a flop with his last chips, I still push it, although I feel it may be a little closer than everyone else is going to say it is /images/graemlins/blush.gif

The difference between this and "normal" posts like this is that you are guaranteed third place. However, there are only two other opponents who can call you so you will be favourite even if both call.

Lori

[ QUOTE ]
Bust or not...you can't pass up on this chance to get 'back in the hunt'. Actually, I wouldn't pass on any 'monster' here (AA-QQ, AK, etc.). Your willingness to push despite SB should be well respected. Not to mention you still have FE over BB.

AND...if bigstack KNOWS that you KNOW that they should "respect" your push - thus KNOWING that you might actually be pushing anything...you might just get called by his KJ or such /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, he knows that I know that he knows...etc /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

My big concern here is the BB can call my push for 700 and still have enough chips to take 3rd if he loses. He knows that, I know that. Both other players also know if they take me out, they've locked up 1st and 2nd.

Given 2nd place wasn't that many more chips than me, I think pushing was good. Equity for 2nd and some towards 1st was probably valuable. It was a really hard choice though. If I'd busted out and left a ghost to take 3rd...well, I'd feel pretty damn lame.

"How'd you do?"
"I lost to a dead guy..."

[ QUOTE ]
I push this. if you are on a site where the Vacant seat doesn't even get to see a flop with his last chips

[/ QUOTE ]

It's party (eurobet). The ghost gets to have a real showdown.

[Wes ManTooth]

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AND...if bigstack KNOWS that you KNOW that they should "respect" your push -

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you would be surprised; but yes I would push in this situation. Also it depends on the buy-in, reads on opponents left as well.

Man I'm glad I've never been in this spot before.

[ QUOTE ]
Man I'm glad I've never been in this spot before.

[/ QUOTE ]

The funny thing is I muttered to myself "damn, I'm folding everything!" Then of course, I get AA...

[45suited]

Is taking 3rd really that important to you?

BTW, what if you fold this and the vacant guy suddenly comes back this hand and doubles up?

[ QUOTE ]
Is taking 3rd really that important to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

To me it is.

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BTW, what if you fold this and the vacant guy suddenly comes back this hand and doubles up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. That'd suck.

Btw, I couldn't fold this, but also maybe couldn't push AK here.

[ QUOTE ]
Is taking 3rd really that important to you?

BTW, what if you fold this and the vacant guy suddenly comes back this hand and doubles up?

[/ QUOTE ]

He won't come back, he's been gone for 2/3rd the tournament.

As for importance, yea. I want the best equity. It's +$20 to reach 3rd, but only another +$10 to reach 2nd. I've only got a small shot at 1st anyway, but it'd be +20 again.

So, if I'm fighting for 2nd or 3rd, 3rd has a lot of value, 2nd some value. Is a 95% shot at 3rd better than risking for a good shot at 2nd?

Probably, in hindsight I'm happy I pushed. I just thought it was an interesting hand. Especially if I'd been shorter on chips. Say I only had slightly more than the ghost? Now, my push gets no respect, a double through doesn't really improve my odds at 2nd that much either.

[45suited]

AK in this example is a no-brainer fold. Here's what is likely to happen with AA:

Much of the time, the bigstacks will fold.

Some of the time, they'll call, you double up, have a chance for first.

Once in a blue moon, they'll call, you bust out.

Meh, I'll take my chances. BTW, I wouldn't hate this spot at all. I'd welcome the chance to get out of puss auto-fold mode and fight for the top couple spots.

[45suited]

Doubling through significantly improves your chances for the 1st two positions. And it's not like you have no FE by pushing here. It's not like you have 2 BB. And the bigstacks likely recognize that you must have a super strong hand to take the chance of pushing.

Whatever, if they don't see this and decide to call, I think that the chance is worth taking.

[nyc999]

[ QUOTE ]
My big concern here is the BB can call my push for 700 and still have enough chips to take 3rd if he loses. He knows that, I know that. Both other players also know if they take me out, they've locked up 1st and 2nd.


[/ QUOTE ]

Seems to me that this widens their calling range, which is better for you. If you double up on the BB first place is within reach.

[Ixnert]

The small stack is small enough (150 after this hand, less than one BB) that this isn't all that far from the situation you'd be looking at if he were still live. You'd have probably an 80-90% chance of making the money here if the shortie were still in the game, and you'd absolutely play AA (and a lot of other hands) under those circumstances. Does it really make that much of a difference going from 80% to 100%?

Yes, you do tighten up some, but most of your equity in most tournament situations comes from your 1st place finishes, not the 3rds. I suspect you're giving up a lot of equity by even folding JJ or QQ here, though I could understand it. You can't even think about folding KK+.

Anyone have SNGPT at hand that could run this? Reasonable calling ranges for the big stacks and zero calling range for the absent one? (Maybe also reduce the small stack as low as it will let you -- as I recall, it won't let anyone have a less than 1 BB stack? -- to simulate his virtually zero prize equity.) I've got a feeling that pushing a lot more than AA/KK is profitable, but I won't be home until late tonight to check...

[fnord_too]

This is a math problem. You can determine your EV if you fold your way in and then start playing. Assuming the range of calling hands your opponents have, you can work out the percent chance you steal the blinds, double up, and go bust and calculate the EV of pushing from that. It's kind of tedious, so I am not going to do it, but you can probably just make some rough guesses to % called and %win if called. Intuitively, I think this is a push, and I think it is a push by an fair margin.

[dogsballs]

In this spot I'd still push loadsa hands without blinking.

AA-99, AK-AT....prolly a bunch more too, depending on my view of the opps.

So what if you might blow out 4th. Gotta work on 1st place too.

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
AK in this example is a no-brainer fold. Here's what is likely to happen with AA:

Much of the time, the bigstacks will fold.

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??? That's just a good reason to push AK too.