1-2 at MGM Grande...preflop question

[TylerD]

Very fishy 5 a.m. 1-2 NL game at MGM Grande. Stoner girl with huge stack (and rack coincidentally) limps UTG, stoner's boyfriend who appears to be sober and appears to play OK (much better than his crazy girlfriend) also limps. I raise to $15 with JJ in MP. Everyone folds to stoner who calls, stoner's boyfriend then raises all-in for about $300. I have $250 left after the raise. Anyone call?

[mickeynygaard]

I normally play 1-2 online, so i dont have the option of "reading" peoples faces, but in this spot with no reads, i think its a clear fold. Fish tend to enjoy limpreraises with big hands, qq, kk, aa.

He could have AK or AQ, but i seriously doubt that. At best you have a coinflip, but 9/10 times i think youre beat, id fold and wait for a better chance to take his money.

Mickey

[jkkkk]

Grande? Grand.

and no, I fold.

[deadmoney98]

Yes, he has AK

[mickeynygaard]

Well, what if he have AK, do you seriously wanna gamble with all your money, with just 15$ invested? At best its a coinflip, but if it is, youre still only gonna win about 55% of the time, why not wait for a hand where youre more then 55% favorite (at best)

Mickey

[TylerD]

This thinking is flawed. If I know he has AK I'd call in an instant. This isn't a tournament, I can reload, there is no need to wait for a better spot. As well as being a 55% favourite there is also ~$30 or so already in the pot, so its in an insta-call if he has AK.

[mickeynygaard]

Ok, guess im a little weak then /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But still, what would he limpreraise you with?

Mickey

[ QUOTE ]
Well, what if he have AK, do you seriously wanna gamble with all your money, with just 15$ invested? At best its a coinflip, but if it is, youre still only gonna win about 55% of the time, why not wait for a hand where youre more then 55% favorite (at best)

Mickey

[/ QUOTE ]

In a cash game? If someone came up to you while you were in the casino and made you this deal: If a coin comes up heads, you get the amount in your chip stack + $1, and if it comes up tails, you give him your chip stack. Do you take it?

If you answered no, you're playing above your bankroll.

Incidentally, doyle brunson says somewhere in super system 1 that he'd do something similar for his entire life savings--or maybe it was $1 million, which when super system was written was a lot for doyle brunson.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
This thinking is flawed. If I know he has AK I'd call in an instant. This isn't a tournament, I can reload, there is no need to wait for a better spot. As well as being a 55% favourite there is also ~$30 or so already in the pot, so its in an insta-call if he has AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are obviously right. unfortunately you will face AK far less often than AA. it's an easy fold for me.

[TheWorstPlayer]

No.

[pottie]

[ QUOTE ]
In a cash game? If someone came up to you while you were in the casino and made you this deal: If a coin comes up heads, you get the amount in your chip stack + $1, and if it comes up tails, you give him your chip stack. Do you take it?

If you answered no, you're playing above your bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

If my bankroll is only 20 times my stack, no thank you.

To OP I fold this quickly. You said he played well.

[TylerD]

I folded, nutty girlfriend called with Q9 or something similar, he showed AKs and I threw up.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded, nutty girlfriend called with Q9 or something similar, he showed AKs and I threw up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding is good. Puking is bad.

[pokerguard]

Did the AK pair?

JJ was about a 56% favorite, but with the girl in with her Q, those odds drop just a hair, no?