Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10

[fimbulwinter]

BB is excellent and covers. plays all day every day like a champ. player to my right is suck. always buys for 200.

short has 250 right now. I have 230 after bluffing off my kopecs last hand like a tard.

im on button, three limp to me with 67s, i limp along, sb completes. then BB raises to 40. I have never seen this out of him before.

three calls to shorty who calls. right after i shove it in i feel sick...

fim

[LethalRose]

fold and rebuy. why play a suited connector if you have no chips...

[JKratzer]

It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is excellent and covers. plays all day every day like a champ. player to my right is suck. always buys for 200.

short has 250 right now. I have 230 after bluffing off my kopecs last hand like a tard.

im on button, three limp to me with 67s, i limp along, sb completes. then BB raises to 40. I have never seen this out of him before.

three calls to shorty who calls. right after i shove it in i feel sick...

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

Question : when would you limp on the button with a big hand after 3 callers?

Answer: never.

BB will go through the thought process and autocall, probably with AA.

Nonetheless, you have two live, connected, suited cards, so the push is not the worst play in the world. It probably only costs you a little bit in the long run, given that some small percent of the time BB only has two overs and not a pair.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

There's $60 in the pot before his raise; $220 in the pot after your call. If you raise to $190 more and he isolates, that puts $600 even in the pot, so your EV is $150 after a call, given your 25% assumption. If you take the pot, your EV is 220+190 = $410

If you fold, you come out of it with $220 (I won't discuss calling because that's too complicated).

So, for this to be better than folding, you need 410* %F + 150*(1-%F) > 230.

That comes out to %F > 30.7%.

However, if his %F is 1% (the odds that he doesn't see that he's getting 2-1 with a huge hand or that he loses his connection), you're losing a good amount of money. Fold or call.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

You're pushing 220. If they all fold you pick up 210 and end at $430. If you get called, you have 25% equity in a pot of 210 (the pot before it gets to you) + 220 (your remaining stack) + 190 (what it costs BB to call you). If we assume the pot's HU when you get called, you have 0.25 * 620 = $155 equity.

Let "c" be the % you're called.
If [c * $155 + (1 - c) * 430 - 220] > 0, it's +EV.
155c + 430 - 430c - 200 = 0 when c = 230/285 = 0.81, so you have to be called over 80% of the time for this to be -EV.

A calling range that gives you 25% equity would be AA-JJ, AKs. If you add in AKo then even if we give him AA-66, AKs, AKo your equity's 27%. As you remove over/dominating pairs it only goes up, so AA-JJ, AKs, AKo gives you around 30% equity.

If he's calling with AA-JJ, AKs, AKo then that has to be 86% of his range to make the original raise or you're going to show a profit. You need 32% equity if he's going to call 100% of the time. Again, this is assuming everyone else drops.

If someone else is going to look you up if BB folds, this play obviously goes way way down in EV, but you know that. If you've just bluffed off most of your stack I'd think someone might be inclined to call this "tilting" push, but you're going to have a better guess as to how likely that is.


edit - I have the pot size wrong. By "three calls to shorty who calls" do you mean three calls total? Not four? Otherwise there would have been four limpers to you pf instead of three the first time around. So, the pot's either $180 or $220 when it gets to you, not $210. Doesn't mean a huge change in what folding equity you need, but the $180 figure does raise it by a couple percent. It's still not huge.

[AZK]

I like the idea, just not the raise, make it like 200 to go. Great/cheap image play.

[deadmoney98]

Uh, AZK, did you see stack sizes in OP?

[gol4pro]

He's got much more than 25% equity for sure. 67s is about 25% against most overpairs, and a little more than 40 against AK/AQ which I think almost certainly call here.

[ahnuld]

Are you caspis on party, or is just another good LAG?

[Lucky]

not a good spot for this raise. You have small stack AND small suited connectors which dont get stronger heads up.

If either of thes were different, it might be ok.

[vapourtrail]

hi here are my thoughts

i like the play in general, if called you are likely to get heads up. with all the dead money in the pot, the play is only a small money loser when called, in the neighborhood of -50$ (depending on what range of hands you want to give the caller)

when everyone folds, you win a large pot, so you need to take it down something like 25% of the time to break even. well, how often will you win the pot right there? i dont know. in my experience, this number can range anywhere between 0 and 100%, depending on the players, game conditions, image, all that fun stuff.

if i were deciding on my play, here are some things i would think about:

* you just lost a big pot. how many times have you seen a player lose the majority of his chips, and then push all-in preflop the very next time?

* how often do you limp on the button after many limpers with AA? i'd guess not often. beware, the BS quotient is very high!

* the BB - with such a small raise, it is hard to see him with a big pair if he is a good player. but everyone makes dumb mistakes from time to time. a raise like this could be a pot juicer from a SC or small PP - even so, could he have something like 88, and after your raise, decide his hand is best and isolate?

* there are a lot of limpers to get by. is one of them going to call you with 88? or are they scared money and willing to accept a 40$ loss rather than risk losing their stack?

* the shortie in position - even it gets folded to the shortie, you say he is bad. so how often can u see him just throwing in his money because he feels like it with Q9o? does he like to "gambooool" ?

* and now for the upside - when called, you get to show your beautiful 76s, and it only costs you maybe at most 50$ to do so. image! imo this will work much better if it is completely random, and you didn't just lose most of your stack - that way we get the reaction:

"wow, what a maniac!"

as opposed to:

"i hope i never tilt like that!"

[nWirb]

You bluffed off all your chips on the previous hand, the excellent BB makes a decent sized raise after 5 ppl limps in and he has odds to call anything but an overpair.
I'd say your FE is cloe to 0% here.
But what do I know.