Getting back into limit.

[FieryJustice]

Hows it going. I usually 8 table the $215 sngs but have decided to relearn to play limit. I used to play it, although not well, before i got into sngs and I think it would ne good to learn to play limit. Anyways, I am basically wondering how often I should expect to lose my buyin (25 bbs) and how often I can expect to have a losing session of 500 hands or so. so far, i have been 4 tabling 15/30 on party and up until today, I had been a fairly consistent winner at about 3bb/100. Today, it seemed as if every draw got there against me and every time I had AA or KK it lost. So....how often should I expect this?

Also, I only have 2500 hands on pt, but I figured i'd post me stats to see if I am on the right track.

VP$IP: 15.01%
VP$SB: 45.45%
FSBTS: 62.16%
FBBTS: 35.63%
ATSB: 35.63%
W$WSF: 35.19%
bb/100: 1.98
WTSD: 30.07%
W$ASD: 55.56%
PFR: 7.26%

I greatly appreciate any responses. Thank you.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

You lose your buy-in once in a while (happens to me once or twice a week on average I guess). If you are a long term 2BB/100-winner it is very unlikely that you will suffer a 500BB downswing due to only bad luck, maybe insulting some players, but I think it happens mostly to players who either tilt/start playing bad after i.e. a 100BB downswing or isn't really a 2BB/100-player.

I think you're going to hear from a lot of people that 2500 hands basically tells you nothing.

[FieryJustice]

Note "I only have..." I realize that isnt a real sample. I was just curious about the swings I should expect. Like most people who play sngs think 1000 sngs is a large sample...although it isnt. I understand 10000 hands isnt a large sample at all. I am just wondering what I should expect.

Sorry hope my response wasn't rude. I've kind of learned about this stuff from reading on 2+2 but I will tell you what I know. Basically the fluctuations you expect will depend on your win rate and your Standard Deviation. So if you win at 2BB/100 and have a SD of 15BB/100 you can calculate how big and frequent downswings will be. I would try to search for these discussions as they are quite good. The thing is that you cannot accurately calculate your win rate and SD without playing a lot of hands, I think maybe like even 100K. So after 2500 hands a 2BB/100 could mean anything, you could be a 4BB/100 player running cold or a -2BB/100 player running hot. So right now you do not know if you are a winning or losing player at this game. Your downswings will be a function of your BB/100 and could be pretty big if you are not beating the game for as much as you think. Sounds like you probably have a big bankroll from the SNG's so you can afford to find out!

[MyTurn2Raise]

These threads might help:
downswings-- http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3088592&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1
'good' pt stats-- http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2129882&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1