77 flop decision

[mike l.]

live 20-40 okay game. i have 77 in c/o. sometimes laggy fishy player raises, i 3 bet, decent semi-taggish sb who thinks i play okay caps it, we both call. 3 of us.

the flop is KT6 rainbow. sb bets, next guy calls, what's my play and why?

[BWebb]

Fold. You don't have the best hand and you don't have odds to call.

[Your Mom]

Fold. You're probably beat and if you aren't, you are probably going to be beat by the time you get to the river. If behind, you have 2 outs. Time to move on.

[tpir90036]

Eh. I guess it's kind of close if you are in the mood for gambling. 15:1 closing the action...do you think you can get 4BBs out of them by the river if you hit? You also might be drawing dead to running 7's though. I think you can fold this one and sleep at night. Anything I am missing?

[mike l.]

i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just going to reply that my first inclination was to raise actually. But Ive been playing a ton of shorthanded lately, so that may be why.

Are u checking behind on the turn or betting?

[amulet]

clear fold.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

[/ QUOTE ]
You have ESP and know that your opponents have QQ and 99 and will both fold on the turn???

[mike l.]

"You have ESP and know that your opponents have QQ and 99 and will both fold on the turn???"

maybe they have some other hands too right?

[mike l.]

"clear fold."

let's start over. is sb going to bet the flop no matter what? yes. is fish on my right going to raise with most pieces of that flop? yes. is the pot getting big and i act last on all rounds? yes.

"clear fold" still?

[DpR]

I think this is an easy fold. You are probably behind and even if you are ahead now you are almost 100% dead if an A,Q or J comes on the turn.

Raising is your other option, but I would save it for when that Ten is a 8 or something.

[CanKid]

i'd peel a card
[ QUOTE ]
and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

- laggy fish could have anything, you'll get to see what he does on the turn
- if sb's range of hands includes all the big aces that didn't pair the flop he may check the turn after 2 flop callers? (you know better than me)
- assuming sb bets again you'll get 9:1 or 10:1 if fish calls again on the turn if you hit an 8 or a 9 for a b/d draw with your set draw (6 outs)
- do that Tommy stuff on the turn

i hate folding this big pot on the flop then seeing the turn go check check and watching QJ or 55 or something stupid get shown down

[Ryno]

If the SB is good he might suspect Mike is light. So the SB's range is wider than that. The fishy one could have a lot of things, and probably doesn't have a K. There are a ton of hands he could have that make a gutshot/OESD with the K and T, that he would just call the flop with.

The SB's bet tells you nothing, it is an autobet.

This is basically a game of chicken that you hope to win. If SB 3-bets the flop you'd probably have to yield on the turn unimproved.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

[/ QUOTE ]

What does the SB think of the LAG PFR? Is he capping light here? Will he fold QQ or JJ? How likely is he to 3 bet?

I think you can make a case for all 3 options here. You're getting like 15:1 on a call, and you're closing the action, and you have position the rest of the hand. Thats worth a lot. If, by some miracle the turn is a 7 you have to think your good most of the time and you're probably going to get a fair amount of action. Combine that with the possibility (albeit small) that you're currently in front and I think you need to see the turn card.

The real question is how likely it is the SB will 3 bet, and whether he'll do it with anything that doesn't beat you. If he 3bets you have to call, but it would suck to have to do that and still not know where you're at in the hand (I can't imagine calling a turn bet if you get 3 bet and miss?). If he's the type that will only call w/ a whiffed AQ, then I think raising is good. If he'd 3bet no pair to put pressure on the fish, then I like a peel, and see what happens on the turn.

thoughts?

lf

[mike l.]

"What does the SB think of the LAG PFR? Is he capping light here? Will he fold QQ or JJ? How likely is he to 3 bet?"

these are the sort of questions to ask. but if i had precise answers than it wouldnt be much of a pickle now would it?

"I think you need to see the turn card."

i agree.

"The real question is how likely it is the SB will 3 bet, and whether he'll do it with anything that doesn't beat you."

excellent. i agree.

"If he 3bets you have to call, but it would suck to have to do that and still not know where you're at in the hand"

well then we'd be talking about a different creature altogether. if sb 3 bet me id know where im at with great certainty and fold the turn unimproved (but call w/ gutshots and fold the river).

"If he's the type that will only call w/ a whiffed AQ, then I think raising is good. If he'd 3bet no pair to put pressure on the fish, then I like a peel, and see what happens on the turn."

good plan. he's the more sensible caller w/ AQ.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a clear raise or fold situation because calling won't tell you anything about the SB's hand. For you to continue and have any idea where he's at you had to raise.

If he 3 bets you fold. If he calls he'll check the turn and, respecting your play or not, call you down with QQ-JJ if rags come off. The best cards for you to bet would be a K, T or a 7. Otherwise I'd seriously consider taking a free card because he's not folding a better hand.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
If he 3 bets you fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's wrong. Forgot how many sb's were in the pot. You call the 3 bet and fold turn UI.

[Gamblor]

Is there any argument for calling the flop and raising/betting any brick turn card, folding otherwise?

[oreogod]

I never really stated my reasons for staying in the hand, but Lil did a pretty good job. If SB thinks mike plays okay and loose, he has probably loosened his capping range. And his flop bet is an auto bet.

Mike, if u raise and are called, whats your plan on the turn (I guess this is assuming a blank comes.)

[DpR]

Revisiting this thread, is SBs hand range really anything more than AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, and pairs down to 88? he did CAP preflop, he is semi taggish and he does think mike plays OK.

So we are ahead of what, 20/71 combos? So, 28% chance we are ahead on the flop. Further, 10 of 47 cards on the turn put those 20 combinations ahead of us. So 21% chance we fall behind on the turn.

Maybe you can fold out 88 and 99 (although this would probably require a turn bet).

So on the turn we are still ahead 28%*79% = 22% plus the times we were behind and hit our 7 to take the lead, (2/47)*(72%) = 3% for a total of 25%.

Of course all of this ignores the fact that there is another player in the hand and the fact that a set of 7s may still be behind. The former is certainly a significant ommision.

This analysis (assuming I didnt mess it up), certainly does not give us a clear answer. If it were heads up it seems pretty clear we should continue. If we added the 3rd player in I cannot imagine we are ahead after the turn card more than 10%. Then, if we get that far, may fall behind on the river. So we are ahead by the river maybe 8% of the time at best?

We have to put in minimum, 1 sb bet on flop, 79%*2sb on turn (we fold if one of the 10 outs hits), 62%*2sb on the river = 3.84 bet to win maybe 20. So about 6-1.

Obviously there is a lot of pieces missing here, the largest of which is that you can play in a fashion that you win without s.d.

That said I think it does frame a little bit how much we need to make up here.

The results we actually closer than I expected them to be, but I think folding is still the way to go here.

[Lawrence Ng]

If you wanna play raising games and head games, raise the turn, not the flop especially if the SB thinks you are an OK player.

Lawrence

[elindauer]

This looks like a super-easy fold. Calling for set-value doesn't make sense as you can easily be drawing dead already.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
i did something i used to do too much but now dont do enough in these scenarios. i raised.

any good reasons to do that??

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, there's a small chance you can get QQ to fold and get it heads up with a guy who, sadly, probably still has you beat. Personally, I think calling is better than raising as you at least come close to break even drawing for just a set and maybe you get a free card.

I'd say folding > calling > raising.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[amulet]

yes, you are usually behind here, playing to 2 outs and hoping to win through shreer aggression. over time, playing when you are behind is costs you money.

[vmacosta]

"If you wanna play raising games and head games, raise the turn, not the flop especially if the SB thinks you are an OK player."

I cant imagine a turn raise not getting called down (unless 77 is still the best hand). In big pots like this, PPs that would fold to a raise usually c/c the big bet streets to ensure showdown. Raising the autobet on the flop, on the other hand, has some merits except, as others have said, getting 3-bet sucks. In the heat of the moment I'd probably just peel n the flop and fold turn UI but maybe I ought to raise this flop once in a while.

[vmacosta]

How did the rest of the hand play out?

[drbk2]

I think the preflop raiser can have a wide range of hands obviously. I think the SB's hand range is not wide at all. If he's a decent, semi taggish guy who thinks you play ok, he's capping here with very few hands.

I think the play here is to call and fold to a bet from either player on the turn. I think it's a little too early to fold since the pot is so large and you got position and you have a slight chance of being ahead and you might hit a 7 on the turn that would likely be good. I think raising is a bad idea because the small blind will probably recognize that you yourself can have a wide variety of hands here. If you choose to raise at all, I say do it on the turn, but I would be done with this hand on the turn if i don't improve.

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
over time, playing when you are behind is costs you money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh jeez. Good luck in this thread, amulet.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
"You have ESP and know that your opponents have QQ and 99 and will both fold on the turn???"

maybe they have some other hands too right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course, I was joking... *but*, when I read this:

"semi-taggish sb who thinks i play okay caps it"

I certainly don't expect to be ahead very often if ever. Is he really capping with AJ out of the blinds?

I don't think seeing a turn card is a mistake... but I am not sure what raising accomplishes in this spot.

[mike l.]

he could have AQs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, some other pairs sometimes, some other A hands sometimes, rarely on the other ones, but not so rare as to say they dont count. the other guy can have all sorts of hands. my raise w/ the 77 is mostly an attempt to get sb to lay down some big pairs that beat mine and make AQs pay. if he has QQ or JJ the presence of the other player in the pot might falsely convince sb i cant be bluffing or making a play. so all i have to do is convince him i hold AK or KQ, or even some other hand with a K. it's not a play i like to try often, it takes exactly a good enough player, a player who prides himself in being able to read hands and stay detached and make the right play without thinking "i damn well capped this preflop, im seeing a damn showdown!" like most players do.

[Your Mom]

I just don't think that one of your opponenets is laying down QQ or JJ here.

[tpir90036]

I like and undertand your thinking and the pot is certainly big enough that investing an extra SB can not be that big of a mistake...I just read his range as being a little smaller given the information. Hope it worked out for you...

tpir

[lil']

[ QUOTE ]
he could have AQs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, some other pairs sometimes, some other A hands sometimes, rarely on the other ones, but not so rare as to say they dont count. the other guy can have all sorts of hands. my raise w/ the 77 is mostly an attempt to get sb to lay down some big pairs that beat mine and make AQs pay. if he has QQ or JJ the presence of the other player in the pot might falsely convince sb i cant be bluffing or making a play. so all i have to do is convince him i hold AK or KQ, or even some other hand with a K. it's not a play i like to try often, it takes exactly a good enough player, a player who prides himself in being able to read hands and stay detached and make the right play without thinking "i damn well capped this preflop, im seeing a damn showdown!" like most players do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't care for the play until I read your last post, and then I changed my mind. Because I play primarily online, I am used to people never folding. However, in a live game, your play could work in this spot.

[mike l.]

the guy did fold QQ face up on the turn after i bet again (brick came). other guy called me with AQ the whole way and my hand was good. but i wanted to talk about it anyway.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
the guy did fold QQ face up on the turn after i bet again (brick came). other guy called me with AQ the whole way and my hand was good. but i wanted to talk about it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

No "decent" player makes that fold face up. Nice hand Mike.

lf

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the guy did fold QQ face up on the turn after i bet again (brick came). other guy called me with AQ the whole way and my hand was good. but i wanted to talk about it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

No "decent" player makes that fold face up. Nice hand Mike.

lf

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I would have put a very low chance on him folding QQ here. This is just a different game than I am used to playing.....

[amulet]

bear, you think i will get a reaction to "over time playing when you are behind costs you money"? lol, ok.

[skp]

The effectivenmess of your raise is embedded in the preamble of your post. If you are prone to raising a lot in this spot, I would say fold. If you are prone to folding or calling a lot in this spot, I would say raise (or call now and raise later although that gets expensive if your opponent has AK or better).

So, bottom line for me in this spot is usually call (given 15:1) and sometimes raise. If you do raise, it goes without saying that you keep your foot on the gas on the turn and possibly the river assuming that opponents offer no reraises.

[bunky9590]

I wanna be like Mike. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[esspo]

[ QUOTE ]
"clear fold."

let's start over. is sb going to bet the flop no matter what? yes. is fish on my right going to raise with most pieces of that flop? yes. is the pot getting big and i act last on all rounds? yes.

"clear fold" still?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the fish part. I don't agree with the bet any flop part. Plus I think you are leaving out the "won't SB fold a better hand often enough" part, which I'm not sure about given your description that SB thinks you play decent. I think SKP nails it with his analysis becuase if you are folding alot in that spot you increase the likelihood that SB will fold a better hand often enough to make the play worthwhile.