nfl futures wins o/u

[NajdorfDefense]

I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

Avoid the Bears under -- very easy schedule, one of the best defenses in the league when healthy.

[20Five]

I personally am planning on fading the patriots as much as possible this year..

Losing both Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis will be very detrimental to their organization, not to mention Andruzzi who was a rock on the line, Ty Law who is still one of the leagues best blanket corners and Brushchi, who was an emotional leader on D.

Also, the patriots have a pretty tough schedule relative to the rest of the league, ive seen that report in a few places.. Id stay away from this bet, too close to call. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally am planning on fading the patriots as much as possible this year..

Losing both Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis will be very detrimental to their organization, not to mention Andruzzi who was a rock on the line, Ty Law who is still one of the leagues best blanket corners and Brushchi, who was an emotional leader on D.

Also, the patriots have a pretty tough schedule relative to the rest of the league, ive seen that report in a few places.. Id stay away from this bet, too close to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brushchi will be missed, as will Ted Johnson. Andruzzi is a solid player but easily replaceable. Ty Law essentially did not play after week 5 last year and the secondary did pretty well without him. They'll be OK there.

Crennel's replacement calling defenses is Eric Mangini, who's been in the system for awhile.Should be OK there, especially with D being Bellichek's claim to fame.

The question mark for me is replacing Weis. IMO no one in the league called a better game. You couldn't defense him by studying tendencies because he had none. Overcoming that loss could be a giant hurdle.

As far as fading them as much as possible...well, they've never been the type of team to blow teams out and as two time defending champs they will probably be saddled with some extra weight most games. I'll look at that on a week to week basis. And I do think they'll slip some this year but not to 10-6. I think over 10.5 wins for the year is the best bet on the futures board.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Avoid the Bears under -- very easy schedule, one of the best defenses in the league when healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Bears D is OK but you have to score to win. That's been a problem the last few years.

The schedule doesn't appear to be that easy either. Yes, they play Cleveland, SF, Washington, New Orleans and Tampa but four of those games are on the road and they also play Baltimore, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. I lean toward under 6.5 here.

[the34eagle]

The bears defense is ok? that made me laugh. Maybe you forgot they have a healthy ugunleye, tillman, urlacher, brown, harris, and briggs. I consider them one of the top 4 defenses in the NFL

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
The bears defense is ok? that made me laugh. Maybe you forgot they have a healthy ugunleye, tillman, urlacher, brown, harris, and briggs. I consider them one of the top 4 defenses in the NFL

[/ QUOTE ]

buffalo, baltimore, carolina, and chicago?? i dont think so.. more then a couple teams id take over the bears defense. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
they have a healthy ugunleye, tillman, urlacher, brown, harris, and briggs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

[tech]

The Bears are going to be much much much better with Orton at QB.

The NFC North is just a tad weak as well. But hey if you think Minny, Detroit and the Pack are great teams then by all means play the under 6.5 big.

The Bears won 5 games with no virtually defensive stars last year, injuries abounded. If you give up 14-17 points per game, you need to score about 14-17 to go 8-8. The scored an average of 14.5 points last year and should up that to 17 this season, which is not a lot but enough for this team to win 7 games. Outside of teams like the Colts and Chiefs, winning in the NFL is about defense. Chicago has it this year, enough anyway to win 7 games against a weak schedule.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
The NFC North is just a tad weak as well. But hey if you think Minny, Detroit and the Pack are great teams then by all means play the under 6.5 big.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I don't think any of these three are anything special but I still rank them all ahead of the Bears. Their quarterbacks and lead running backs at least have some NFL experience.

[ QUOTE ]
The Bears won 5 games with no virtually defensive stars last year, injuries abounded

[/ QUOTE ]
The Bears riddled with injuries seems to be a yearly saga in Chicago. So...are they just unlucky or do they have some players who can't get through the season healthy? If form holds they'll have some injuries which expose a lack of depth this year too.

[ QUOTE ]
If you give up 14-17 points per game, you need to score about 14-17 to go 8-8. The scored an average of 14.5 points last year and should up that to 17 this season, which is not a lot but enough for this team to win 7 games

[/ QUOTE ]
Averaging 17 a game seems like a tall order for this team right now. And if they can't, well, tired defenses tend to give up points late in games. Inept offenses tend to turn the ball over when they try to play catch up. IMO it adds up to another 5-11 or 6-10 season. 7-9 is possible, sure, but I still lean towards the under.

[LargeCents]

[ QUOTE ]
I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Both of these are two close to call, for reasons stated already.

Don't you need a pretty definitive advantage to justify tying up your money for such a long time, plus offsetting the juice?

[20Five]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Both of these are two close to call, for reasons stated already.

Don't you need a pretty definitive advantage to justify tying up your money for such a long time, plus offsetting the juice?

[/ QUOTE ]

well put /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like Bears under 6.5 wins and Pats over 10.5.

Thoughts?

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

Both of these are two close to call, for reasons stated already.

Don't you need a pretty definitive advantage to justify tying up your money for such a long time, plus offsetting the juice?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I have an advantage on the Bears, I doubt they win 7 games with Orton.

Even by PVing the payout back 3-4 months, it's not that much of a hurdle to overcome. In fact, you can make a case that if you have a decent bankroll, it's better than paying the 5% vig to the casino for 17 weeks in a row.

I will likely not do the Pats bet, but the Bears bet is solid.

/images/graemlins/smirk.gifnaj
best to all,

I am a tremendous believer in the variables of defense, special teams and turnover ability as determinants of success. The Bears, when healthy, rate quite well in all of these. The cake schedule helps quite a bit as well.

Of course, if you believe the Bears' D will get banged up again and the offense, on its own and separate of special teams and defensive scores, will only be able to manage 7-10 points/game, then the under is a good bet.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif hey naj:

how about posting some game winners; gotta help us mere mortals out..

gl

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[NajdorfDefense]

I'm trying Scalfie! How ya doing? I had ASU and I think I posted about SoFla and USC and Wyoming.

My pick of the week is now Miami -2.5 down from -3 at FSU.

Naj /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[the34eagle]

Hate to say I told you so. Looks like I'm going to be cashing BIG time at the end of the year with my bet on the bears winning the division (20:1) as well as the over 6.5 wins this year. But you were right, the bears defense is OK.