I don't get Stats Much - Homer's Streaks Spreadsheet

[Sarge85]

Is this really possible?

I’ve played around a lot with Homer’s Streak spreadsheet.

Those of you not familiar with the spreadsheet, it’s designed to show how streaky your play can be. At the same time, it shows the effect of the “long run” and despite any short term streak, if you are a proven winner, you will have a positive trend line over the “long run”.

It uses a combination of win rate and Standard Deviation to come up with potential results.

More on the design, and spreadsheet can be found here:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=445039&page=&view= &sb=5&o=&fpart=1

I’ve created a few additional charts to extrapolate what 4 tabling, 2-4, 5 hours a day, 20 days a month, for a year. What I would consider Semi Pro, Pro Hours in a year.

I have “Streaks” graphs representing:

1hr session, 4 tables = 4 Table Hours (Representing a possible hour in a 5 hour session – relevance = Extremely Low/Irrelevant

5 hr session, 4 tables = 20 Hours (Representing one full day/full session – relevance = Very Low

5 Days, @ 5 hr sessions, @ 4 tables = 100 Table Hours (Representing one week – relevance = Low
20 Days @ 5 hr Sessions @ 4 tables = 400 Table Hours (Representing one month play – relevance = somewhat relevant

12 Months @ 5 hr Sessions @ 4 tables = 4800 table hours (Representing one year of play – relevance = very relevant

So anyway my ultimate question is, how reliable of a tool is this.

By SD is 15 BB HR.
My WR is 2.0/BB per HR
BB = 4.00
(These figures can be gathered out of PT)


I recalculated the spreadsheet 100 times (representing 100 different poker years)

Lowest Year: $28,745
Highest Year: $50,489

Average Year: $38,884

The Avg Year is what I have a question about. The win rate isn’t anything extravagant, and the SD is what I believe “typical” (though I’m not as sure on SD)

However averaging nearly $39,000 a year at $2/$4 seems high to me.

Is the spreadsheet calculations inaccurate?
Are my playing time assumptions wrong?
Could one expect to put in 5 hours a day, 20 days a month, and expect to make $39,000 a year?

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[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]

Could one expect to put in 5 hours a day, 20 days a month, and expect to make $39,000 a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems very reasonable.

[chief444]

4800 table hours x 55 hands/hr = 264000 hands

If you average 2.5 BB/100 that's 2.5 x $4 x 264000/100 = $26,400.

Rakeback would add about another $2.5 x 264000/100 = $6,600

So that's about $33k/yr if 2.5BB/100 is your average.

So, yes. It's very possible.

I didn't check the spreadsheet for any innacuracies. I don't use it anyway. So I can't comment on that part of it.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Could one expect to put in 5 hours a day, 20 days a month, and expect to make $39,000 a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems very reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.

Krishan

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
4800 table hours x 55 hands/hr = 264000 hands

If you average 2.5 BB/100 that's 2.5 x $4 x 264000/100 = $26,400.

Rakeback would add about another $2.5 x 264000/100 = $6,600

So that's about $33k/yr if 2.5BB/100 is your average.

So, yes. It's very possible.

I didn't check the spreadsheet for any innacuracies. I don't use it anyway. So I can't comment on that part of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The rakeback was important I thought too add. being that it is 2/4, bonuses are also good. Sure, they cut into rakeback, but at 2/4 they're still worth it and you can clear them real fast playing that much.

I know it doesn't directly affect the method in OP, but if the goal of OP is to see what expected annual salary for 2/4 at a year, I think it belongs.

[Sarge85]

The rakeback was important I thought too add. being that it is 2/4, bonuses are also good. Sure, they cut into rakeback, but at 2/4 they're still worth it and you can clear them real fast playing that much.

I know it doesn't directly affect the method in OP, but if the goal of OP is to see what expected annual salary for 2/4 at a year, I think it belongs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rakeback....I've got to get me one of those....

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