Ever appropriate to fold AA (preflop)?

[jasonHoldEm]

Ok, I'm asking this because I honestly don't know what the proper play is, and even thinking about it right now I'm confused, because it seems like there's very good arguments for both sides.

Single table tournament, 8000 chips in play, four people left (top three are paid). Two big stacks have almost all of the money roughly $3500 each. Unfortuantely I'm not one of them (so in other words I'm playing to beat the other guy for third place). I have approximately $550 and I'm in the small blind (Limits have just increased to 400-800, so I have $350 left to play with after paying the SB). The person to my left is the short stack, he has $450 ($50 left to play after paying the BB).

UTG raises, other player folds, I have AA...

This is where I'm not sure if I'm thinking right. I obviously have the best possible hand at this point, and calling/raising in any other situation would be a no brainer. I'm not sure if this situation is special enough to warrant a fold, but here's my line of thinking.

-> If I call, I'm all-in, all the BB has to do is fold and hope I lose the race and he will take 3rd place with a whopping $50 in chips.

-> If I fold, the BB will either call this hand (and be all-in) or be all-in when he pays the SB next hand, either way there is no chance for him to get more chips without a race/showdown.

-> I realize that people are a lot looser with their raises when it's short handed, but given what I know from the player who raised, I think he has enough brains to realize that if either of us call his raise we will be all-in and there will be a race/showdown. So in other words I don't think he's raising here with crap, I think he has a decent hand...obviously not as good as AA, but he probably has a good chance of beating the BB if he calls (and/or outdrawing me if I call).

-> (This one is a longshot, but still a possibility). If I fold, even if the SB wins one of the two possible situations (or maybe both...lol), there's still a chance that he would make a mistake, overplay a hand and get knocked out before I'm forced to go all-in with the next BB (I'd have two hands to "wait it out").

-> In truth though, If I fold and the SB wins his all-in I'm probably fried chicken, I don't think he'd be foolish enough to voluntarily play a hand when I will be blinded out.

-> However, the BB must either go all-in this hand (against what I previously said I suspected was a good hand), or be forced all-in next hand with a random hand.

Well, the last one was the one that clinched it for me. I choose for the survival route and folded. It worked out, the BB called and lost the hand to UTG's JJ (woo-hoo! I was right about him having a good hand, D'oh! I would have won).

Interested to hear if I played it right or if I'm a moron,
jHE

[Martin Aigner]

OUCH. YOU FOLDED???

No way I would fold here, unless I was really desperate and needed to have the $50 for some reason. The points you posted were right, still you missed what goes pro calling.

If you win (which obviously is likely), chances of becoming 3rd are way higher than by folding and hoping that the other player gets eliminated. He has to post the blind next hand, and if he survives, you will be in all in in your next small blind (assuming, that you fold in the BB)

If you call, you have a shot for 1st price too. You double up and have about 1k out of 8k. Chances are small, but alive.

Further you wrote:

" realize that people are a lot looser with their raises when it's short handed, but given what I know from the player who raised, I think he has enough brains to realize that if either of us call his raise we will be all-in and there will be a race/showdown. So in other words I don't think he's raising here with crap, I think he has a decent hand...obviously not as good as AA, but he probably has a good chance of beating the BB if he calls (and/or outdrawing me if I call)."

Why should a good hand draw out to AA more easily than a bad hand. The best hand to draw out against AA is 65s. Wouldn´t you prefer him to have AK (or any Ax) or KK(or any other pair) to something like T7s?

BTW, I don´t think that he needs to have any hand at all in this situation, since he hopes that you fold (because the BB is almost all in and the BB might hope for a survival in the next hand and hopes that you get eliminated first in the next orbit). If I was a big stack, I would raise UTG with any picture card + a straight card (e.g. J8o), if I was the button and first in, I might raise with every hand. (Depending on the tightness of the players, of course)

Regards

Martin Aigner

[Ignatius]

If this would have been a satellite with top-3 places paying equally, then you might consider folding. (Even then, the situation is far from clear-cut, b/c if the BB wins the hand, you will have to go in on your BB in 3 hands). Otherwise, even thinking about mucking your bullets is insane. You have an excellent chance to triple up and give yourself a shot for first place, and even if you lose to the BB but win against UTG, you will be in essentially the same situation as by mucking b/c it doesn't make much of a difference if you move in on your next BB with T200 or T350. Also, if you muck and the BB wins, you are a favorite for coming out 4th anyway.
.
Moreover, by moving in, you will put the BB into a tough situation: If he calls for his last T50, he will still place 4th unless he wins against two opponents b/c he is in there with less chips than you, so it's quite possible that he'll fold for tactical reasons and you'll get better than 3:1 against a single opponents as a 4:1 favorite (or 10:1 if UTG happens to have an ace).

[philnewall]

It depends on the payout structure. If the prize for third is relatively close to the other two prizes then it may be best to fold, and to hope to sneak in in third place. however, if there are big jumps, you would probably want to go in with the AA, try to double or triple through, and then you would have a much better shot at getting one of the higher prizes.

[iblucky4u2]

1st - nice mandelbrot logo /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

This is a no brainer - push your chips in! You will be tripling up. This will give you about $1500 in chips and put the UTG down to 3000 with him going into the blinds and you having position on him and the other big stack. That means after the next 2 hands the current UTG player may be down to 2400 chips. If you can pick up blinds in the next hand or 2, you will be in 2nd and challenging for 1st.

[jasonHoldEm]

Thanks for your comments guys,

I guess the main reason behind my fold was due to the fact I didn't factor in the 400 in the BB when trying to figure out how much I would be winning (If I had called and won I would have almost tripled my stack...I was thinking just doubling up for some reason, even though that alone should have been good enough to call). I would have had around 1500 vs 3500 in first place and 2800 in second, so I guess I blew a big opportunity to get a chance to make some real money vs chickening out and winning a small amount (D'oh). Unfotunately I was in more of a survival mode (trying to win third) than trying to win the whole thing. I find this happens to me a lot when I'm on the bubble, I guess there's a time when that's the right play (when the other short stacks are too loose/agressive and they will make mistakes), but in this situation folding was pretty weak.

Thanks again,
jHE

[maplepig]

even when you are in survival mode, you should raise this hand. AA wins average 80% of time heads up. If you win, BB has close to zero chance to beat you. So you are in money 80% of time. If you fold, BB has average at least 35% chance of winning. If he wins, you chance for third will be no more than 20%. In that case, by folding you are in money 65% + 35%*20%= 72%.
For survival, folding AK is ok in this situation, but not AA. It's probably never correct to fold AA preflop in single table tournament.

[Hung]

This is why I hate limit so much. AA is an all-in hand, but that's not possible when you're playing limit.
AA is much stronger in NL. If you don't play hands like AA, what would you play then?

The other guy has a similar stack. If he gets lucky he'll win a pot and you'll lose at 4th place. I'd risk it all with AA. If I'm really unlucky, I'll lose. But that's the game. If I have the best of it I put it all-in. Not matter the outcome.

[Guy McSucker]

If this is an online tournament with the typical 50%-30%-20% payouts, there's nothing wrong with survival mode: 3rd is a significant chunk of the money, and 2nd is not much more. My goals on the bubble in these games are first to get in the money, then to win it.

However, AA is far too good a hand to pass up. Something like AQ I could fold with a clear conscience. AK would be tricky...

Guy.

[jasonHoldEm]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
even when you are in survival mode, you should raise this hand. AA wins average 80% of time heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was another factor I knew but ignored. I was playing scared with the best hand and really wish I would have called (putting myself all-in).

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
If this is an online tournament with the typical 50%-30%-20% payouts, there's nothing wrong with survival mode:

[/ QUOTE ]

It was the standard 50/30/20, but I still wish I would have called, I'm realizing it now that to do anything else was very, very foolish. It still worked out for me (I made the money), but I blew my chance at getting anything but third place.

Also, what would you do if you had the same situation as above, but had 1000 in your stack instead of 550? Would you just call the raise and see the flop with a chance to fold (and possibly survive til the other person knocks himself out) or would you re-raise putting yourself all-in?

Thanks,
jHE

[RollaJ]

always push with the aces in that situation, worst case scenario u pony up another $11 /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[ohkanada]

The bi-annual, should I fold AA pre-flop post!

Unless this is a super, I can't think of many examples where I would fold AA pre-flop.

Raise it up!

Ken Poklitar

[matt_d]

Even if you somehow find a situation where folding AA is profitable, you should go all in anyway to avoid the psychic pain of seeing that you would have won, and then thinking "I coulda, shoulda". Also I feel that folding AA is wrong on principle, almost sacriligeous in fact.

And think about this - Jack Strauss won the WSOP coming back from one chip. And you're telling us you folded AA to salvage 3rd? Get outta here! (j/k) /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[Mr. Peterson]

OK easy call here. Super easy even. You only lose if you call, big blind folds, and you lose (4-1 fav over another pair, and roughly 15 to 20 - 1 fav against an Ace - suits and straight possibilitys influence the exact number) OR you call BB calls, and he beats both you and UTG (pretty damn unlikely). And with a 50/30/20 payout this doesn't even begin to be close. 20% is not even double your entry fee. Go for the win and get nearly 5x.

AK AQs AA KK QQ are all automatic calls here other hands depend more on who raised...

[Mark Heide]

jasonHoldEm,

This is a very close decision and depends on the payoff percentages and your opponents likely hands. Here is an example that you could probably use to make the decision easier in the future.

Let us say that the payoff structure is 50% for 1st, 33% for 2nd, and 17% for 3rd. If you fold everytime you will win third place almost 100% of the time. So, you will have $350 out of the $8000 which gives you a chance to win 1st place 0.04375% and 2nd place 0.065625% (2nd place is based on 0.04375 + (0.5 x 0.04375)). Your total equity for this plan of action is 21.4% of the prize pool. I calculated this number by adding the following: 17% for 3rd, 2.2% for 2nd, and 2.2% for 1st. The calculation for 2.2% for 2nd place assumes that the payoff is 33% of the prize pool, multiplied by the probability of finishing 2nd place, and 1st place is calculated by multiplying 50% of the prize pool by the percentage of chips left after folding for 3rd place.

What happens if we play a hand that is at least a 65% favorite to win. You would win 3rd place 11.1% of the time(17 x .65), 2nd place 6% (33 (0.5 x .1875 + .1875).65), and 1st place 6.1% (50 x .1875 x .65). Note that the .1875 is the percentage of the prize pool you've won by deciding to play a 65% favorite. If you add these percentages up you will have 23.2% of the prize pool by making the decision to play compared to only 21.4% if you didn't play.

It would be incorrect to play a hand that only gave you a 50% chance or less of winning. This is due to your total equity being only 17.9%.

In this situation, you can play AA because this hand is better than a 65% favorite to win. You could probably play KK too. But, if you have AK you are putting yourself in a situation that is not quite a 50% to win against a pair.

Good Luck

Mark

[jasonHoldEm]

Mark,

Wow, thanks...that really makes more sense now. This post is a couple weeks old (I've already resolved to never fold aces again in this situation), but your analysis/formula helps to make it more clear WHY I should play the hand. I'm going to adjust it to the payouts for the tourmanets I normally play (which will only make calling more appropirate).

Thanks again,
jHE

[MtSmalls]

Jason,

look further in this very forum for another similar situation under "self Flagellation". I doubt there is a situation that I can come up with that i wouldn't call pre-flop. Now post-flop, that's a different story.....

[Nottom]

If there were a time to fold AA ... this is not it.

The only time I could think would be more like ... you are the shortstack by a few hundred chips under the other players that are all pretty close with 4 players left and the pay out is for top 3. You are in the BB, UTG goes all-in, UTG+1 calls all-in, and SB calls all-in. In this case it might be best to let them duke it out since you very likely lose the hand and since you had the short stack you would be considered 4th (is this correct for most tourneys?)
Where as a fold almost guarentees you finish no worse than 2nd.

[DaNoob]

I think this actually brings up a very good question:

It's the 1st hand of a tournament, you're in the BB and look down to find pocket rockets. UTG goes all-in, so does the next person, and the next, and the next, and the next. Although you have the best possible hand, against this many callers, it probably wouldn't make sense for you to call. So, how many callers makes this an easy muck? /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[PokerFinder]

Yes! I have done it few times and there's no shame. My situation involved a final table on a site where there were 2 re-raises and 3 allins already. I didn't think I stood a chance with AA with 3 allins.

What would you do in that situation?

[jasonHoldEm]

Hmmm....

I'll take a shot but it's probably incorrect /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif

I'd probably call if there were at least 4 people in the pot, I'm pretty sure AA holds up 1/3 times at a 10 handed table, so that's the minimium you'd need to put the odds in your favor (rather than breaking even with 3). You'll be headed for the rail 2/3 of the time (statistically speaking), but the other time you'll end up with half the chips at the table (not bad after the first hand).

Then again, I started this whole thread, so what do I know? /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

Interested to hear the "right" answer.
jHE

[Greg (FossilMan)]

No!

It's really very simple. With some rare exceptions that only occur in super-satellites, NEVER fold AA preflop in holdem. NEVER!!!!!

I have only seen one manufactured scenario (that wasn't part of a super, or some other tourney with a similar payout scheme) where it was correct to fold AA preflop. And the chances of finding yourself in that scenario are probably about 1 in 10 to the 100th power.

Since this is the first hand of the tournament in your scenario, you are still a VERY long way from the money. As such, you cannot turn down a chance to win a 9x or 10x sized stack, where you're only about a 2:1 dog to do so.

Although the situation you describe will never take place in the real world, if it did, I am sure that no top player would fold here.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)