Getting in a Mess at 5/10

[naphand]

Same table as other post, same players involved.

TABLE: Quite loose in general. MP3 is V$IP 26 PFR 05 and AF 1.47, has done nothing of note except comfirm the statistical impression. He seems weak. I recently busted SB's AA after stealing OTB with KTo. I do not think he is steaming, but I am beginning to think he is overly loose (and quite/average aggro post-flop - but not a LAG). Too few hands to have meaningful stats.


$5/$10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Naphand calls, SB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (6 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, SB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (12 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Naphand calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Naphand folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 19 BB


Flop is a WA/WB situation, so I elect to call and see what the Turn brings. With the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif another flush card may not be so bad.

Turn is the flush (under) card. No "extra" bets will come on a 4-sooted River if I make my flush (barring losing to the Ace of course). I figure I have enough here to make a free SD play, only betting again if the flush hits.

Optimal line?

When SB calls two cold on the turn, that makes we very suspicious. He has either a 9, a full house, or J10. I think the fold on the river is OK, though it is a pretty huge freaking pot, but I don't think you are good that often. I think you absolutely need to raise the flop, to push out the SB in case he has an ace or a hand like J10.

[krubban]

Raise the flop, you don't want to give the As a cheap look at the turn. And I don't think it's a WA/WB situation, most of the time you are way ahead and i wouldn't want anyone to draw to a cheap ace.
Since you didn't raise the flop raising the turn is good.
SBs coldcall would scare me though, what does he coldcall with there? A /images/graemlins/spade.gif a 9 or maybe a made flush he decided to slowplay.
I think you played the river correct, that donkbet makes no sense and i wouldn't think i was good here but would still call.
I think you should have bet the river though if MP2 hadn't bet it for you.

[peterchi]

I don't think you want to be calling this wa/wb with two flush cards on the board, two opponents, and totally clean ace outs for either one of them.

So I'd raise the flop. Not sure how the rest of the hand plays then.

As is, I like your turn and river play.

[jskills]

Flop is a must raise given its texture and your hand. Waiting for a third spade to fall on the turn to raise makes little sense to me ...

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you absolutely need to raise the flop, to push out the SB in case he has an ace or a hand like J10.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of equity does JT have against us in this spot?

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is a must raise given its texture and your hand. Waiting for a third spade to fall on the turn to raise makes little sense to me ...

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't know that a 3rd spade was going to fall. I don't mind waiting till the turn to raise. It's close because the top flop card is so low.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is the flush (under) card. No "extra" bets will come on a 4-sooted River if I make my flush (barring losing to the Ace of course). I figure I have enough here to make a free SD play, only betting again if the flush hits.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet the river if everyone just called the turn.

Krishan

You're right not much. And it is unlikely that j10 is calling for even one bet. But I still raise to get SB to fold an ace.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right not much. And it is unlikely that j10 is calling for even one bet. But I still raise to get SB to fold an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Use some reverse baysian analysis. Figure out the collective number of outs your opponents have, determine the potential cost of losing the pot when a raise would have protected your hand against the potential value of a turn raise.

I think a flop raise is best, but not because I want to fold people out. I think it's best because we can't rely on MP betting the turn a high enough % of the time. A spade, AK or Q might freeze him up and that's too many cards for me. He also could be betting the flush draw.

Krishan

[naphand]

What if you thought SB was tricky?

I am just recalling how he cold-called QQ PF against my AJ and let me bet a J-flop to the River HU before raising me. He had also shown some preponderance to slow-play like this against others.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
What if you thought SB was tricky?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd still bet the river. It's hard to not be tainted by the real river. Even if he's tricky, he has to have a hand to be tricky with and I think much more often he has a regular hand.

Krishan

[naphand]

Yeah it is close. The 2-soots on the flop make me want to raise and perhaps I should. Against this is idea that I have the backdoor draw should a 3rd spade fall (so I have enough equity to play on should that arise) and I do not really want to fold this if 3-bet. No flush draw is folding, a single A might and especially the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, and certainly this is to my advantage.

Ho-hum. As my image was poor and the whole table probably expects me to raise this low board as the PFR with position, waiting until the Turn gives my raise a lot more credibility. There are really not too many cards I fear, Krishans point about the player not betting the Turn is the most valid IMO.

What weighting do you place on my abysmal image Krishan?

[W. Deranged]

Raise the flop.

The pot is multiway, and I see no reason to get fancy here. The player in front of you often won't bet the flop. Also, your plan to raise the turn could clash with that of others who are either slowplaying or might hit draws, which could put you in some extremely tough positions after the flop (like here) where you have put in two or three big bets before you realize that you even have an opportunity to consider getting away from your hand.

[naphand]

I see I did not include my comment about image for this hand (as I did for the other).

My concern is not to get FPS, but that my image is poor and as PFR with position I think a lot of players will expect me to raise overs. I do not think it will so easily achieve the folds people suggest as a consequence. This was the main reason I delayed. The $5/$10 players are not so much the passive non-thinkers I have played before at $3/$6 down, I really do think many are watching and anticipating moves. A 3-bet would not necessarily mean a 9, and I could also expect to get CR or donked a lot on the Turn too. It's all rather confusing, part of the problem with running with a bad image... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
My concern is not to get FPS, but that my image is poor and as PFR with position I think a lot of players will expect me to raise overs. I do not think it will so easily achieve the folds people suggest as a consequence.

[/ QUOTE ]

This really makes me want to raise the flop. If you get too much action, just call down.

Krishan