Questionable Flop 3-bet and a Donk 5/10

[naphand]

Sickening session, I am getting turned over with some really shocking beats so my image is probably quite crappy.

TABLE: Quite loose in general. MP3 is V$IP 26 PFR 05 and AF 1.47, has done nothing of note except comfirm the statistical impression. He seems weak. I recently busted SB's AA after stealing OTB with KTo. I do not think he is steaming, but I am beginning to think he is overly loose (and quite/average aggro post-flop - but not a LAG). Too few hands to have meaningful stats.

$5/$10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Naphand calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand 3-bets</font>, SB calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (7 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Naphand /images/graemlins/confused.gif

On the Flop I figure MP3 for a weak K, he would raise any better K than mine. SB I am not so sure but figure a 3-bet will help play later streets (or preferably fold him/MP1 and leave me with MP3). Turn is HU with SB (??) and I get donked. Yuk.

Anyone care to read this player and provide a better line?

[naphand]

That is to say, a better line than call..call.

[lozen]

With two limpers I raise this preflop. Loks like a open ended draw or k-q. Looks like he hot on turn. I call down and that could be a leak of mine

I don't think there is much of a difference in these situations between the amount of EV of raising/calling preflop.

Your best line after the donk bet, IMO, is to call call. With this bet he could be testing you and getting three bet here is a disaster.

[naphand]

Agreed. Not sure why I did not raise this PF, seems strange looking at it now. Nothing else from the session looks awry, at least PF. I think it was partly to do with the fact that my image was crap, and there was little to zero chance of taking it down on the flop for one bet.

Yes, I know I have good equity here in an unraised pot but when you are running bad....

Also I am not sure how the equity compares for this hand, which fares pretty well multi-way, between a raise 3-way and a limp 5-way.

I did some SD simluations against random hands (not ideal I know):

3-way raised (for 2 SB): 0.447 x 6 SB = 2.68 SB
5-way limped (1 SB): 0.299 x 5 SB = 1.49 SB

Raising against 2 has an EV of +0.68 SB and limping 5-way has an EV of +0.49 SB. Even 6-way the EV is not a great as raising.

However, if I use PokerStove and bung in some reasonable loose player/limper (all sooted Aces, all pairs, most offsuit Aces hands like 78s and KTo etc.) hand ranges things change somewhat and the EV becomes much closer:

Raise against 2 opponents = +0.205 SB
Limp against 3 opponents (1 blind calls) = +0.20 SB
Limp against 4 opponents (both blinds call) = +0.25 SB

And in fact if both blind call, limping is to my advantage. Looks like Jonny C is right.

[toss]

I don't know how the calculations work, but I still think KJs is a good hand to play raised and in position.

[PITTM]

dude! raise preflop. i would probably raise the turn too, i&lt;3 agg.

rj

[chief444]

I can't think of a better line than call call here naphand. But yeah...raise it up preflop. You have position and a good hand.

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't think of a better line than call call here naphand. But yeah...raise it up preflop. You have position and a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my line until I get to know sb a little better.

[naphand]

I agree, my normal line is to raise PF.

The calculations are based on the SD value (i.e. how many times the hand wins when played to SD). Effectively this is an all-in calculation, it is far from ideal as so much depends on what happens post-flop, but it does give an idea of the theoretical value of the hand at this point.

Take the % win rate and multiply by the total pot, subtract the bets put in by you. If the result is positive you have an +EV situation.

So a hand like KJs will win 44.7% of the time in a 3-way pot (for an all-in situation), 36.7% of the time in a 4-way pot and 29.9% of the time 5-ways.

The total pot if you raise 2 opponents will be 6 SB, of which 2 SB are yours. The EV is therefore:

(Equity % x Pot Value) - Cost
(0.447 x 6 SB) - 2 SB = 0.205 SB

What is interesting is that the figures come out so close for the different scenarios. Clearly raising against the same number of opponents wins you more (twice as much) but if limping enourages other limps/completions then there is equal or greater value in limping, at least theoretically.

Other considerations are such things as being able to take a free card if flopping a draw, a bigger pot giving you odds to play on, easier play of the hand on later streets, the possibility of winning the hand uncontested.

The last of these is very important, particualarly in tighter games. But what I find interesting is for a hand like this the figures do seem to support the notion that limping is a viable option and if your image is bad (i.e. you have little or no chance of winning uncontested) this represents a viable line that does not lose EV.

I would be interested to hear the comments of others on this, as I have to confess I was suprised to see the figures coming out like they did. I suspect similar results might be achievable for quite a few hands, but what makes them more relevant here is the multi-way strength of a hand like KJs.

[W. Deranged]

1. Raise pre-flop.

2. I don't particularly find a fold here, since the 9 is a very innocuous card and you still have some outs against two pairs (particularly the junky ones that could be coming out of the small blind). The donk-bet might be truly donky and simply represent a K. He may be tilting and trying to take shots at you. Getting 4.5-1 on a calldown here I don't think you can go anywhere.

3. Raising the turn for a free showdown could be a nice option, particularly if you believe your opponent could be capable of donk-betting here with a draw and if you don't believe it's likely he'll three-bet you with a better hand. You reserve the option to get another bet in if you hit a J or possibly the board pairs.

[naphand]

Another player on the table was most definitely taking shots, this player was loose and tricky. My belief was that his donk after calling 2 bets cold on the Flop, is an invitation to raise and get 3-bet. I think this is quite likely, he probably puts me on AK or at least a big K.

My 2-pair outs are reasonably plentiful, so I agree that folding is wrong. But since moving the $5/$10 I have noticed that very often this kind of donk, into an aggressive player (such as I am), means more than at lower limits and a 3-bet is really quite likely, which is too much pain for this hand. I have used the donk exactly this way to good effect against aggro players, it is sweet when it works.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Another player on the table was most definitely taking shots, this player was loose and tricky. My belief was that his donk after calling 2 bets cold on the Flop, is an invitation to raise and get 3-bet. I think this is quite likely, he probably puts me on AK or at least a big K.

My 2-pair outs are reasonably plentiful, so I agree that folding is wrong. But since moving the $5/$10 I have noticed that very often this kind of donk, into an aggressive player (such as I am), means more than at lower limits and a 3-bet is really quite likely, which is too much pain for this hand. I have used the donk exactly this way to good effect against aggro players, it is sweet when it works.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you feel it's particularly likely you'll get three-bet by a hand that either you: a) are beating; b) have sufficient outs against, then calling the turn is definitely better. This is read dependent, clearly.

[KramerTM]

Oy. I'm raising this PF 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

[naphand]

Did nobody spot the deliberate mistake? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Just for completeness/correctness I feel I should correct my post.

The PF raise scenario is incorrect because it fails to include the dead money when the blinds fold.

I ran the PokerStove SIM again with a BB that gets a free ride when limping (i.e. random) plus limping hands for the rest, and also with some adjustment for a raise for the SB/BB. The SD figures are:

3-way 0.363
4-way 0.289
5-way 0.252

If I raise and both blinds fold there is an additional 1.5 SB in the pot as dead money. This makes the EV calculation:

(0.363 x 7.5) - 2 = +0.72 SB

A huge difference! (compared to 0.20 SB).

If we take the line of one blind folding (after a raise) then:

SB folds (0.289 x 8.5) - 2 = +0.46 SB
BB folds (0.289 x 9) - 2 = +0.60 SB

For the limping:

SB calls (0.252 x 5) - 1 = +0.26 SB
SB folds (0.289 x 4.5) - 1 = +0.30 SB

Obviously BB never folds when I limp.

The above clearly show the value of getting the blinds out, and esp. the BB. A significant chunk of equity is added when the BB folds. Raising and getting both blinds to fold adds approx. +0.4 SB to the EV.


NOTE ON HAND RANGES
The actual hand range chosen for opponents matters to some degree, but as both limpers call one more when I raise in almost every case, the hand ranges for the limpers do not change between raising/limping. The BB obviously changes from random when he gets a free ride (I limp) to a range similar to the limpers (I used the same range). As for SB, his complete will be different to calling a raise, or at least for a reasonable player. Here I assumed he called with a similar range as he was loose, but it actually makes only about a 1% difference even for much tighter hand ranges (and excluding 3-betting hands) when you assume he is tight/decent.

[jskills]

Why are we not raising preflop with this hand and in this position? It would likely change the entire hand.

I think in the line you took, call down the two bets. He may have not been able to flop his crappy two pair if he faced a raise preflop though ...