Bet or check turn

[baronzeus]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero......

[Trix]

I dont think it´s close.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think it´s close.

[/ QUOTE ]

neither do i, but ive been wrong before.

[Trix]

Maybe I am too, cuz it´s 4-4 now..

[aK13]

I thought it was pretty easy too...I've discussed with baron already.

[Poldi]

You raised preflop from MP, there is an Ace on the flop but all of them stayed in anyways. You have to be concerned that you may be behind but cant give anyone credit for an Ace yet.

The turn makes things way worse, it completes the flush and straight draws. For whatever reason the 3 guys called the flop, its likely someone got what he needed to beat you.
Usually you want to bet to not give any free cards but here it seems more likely that you are the one who could use the free card. Most of the time you are drawing now and you dont want to pay more than needed to see the river. A check-raise is a very serious concern here.
You ll have to see the river with your nut-flush draw, I dont think your KK is ahead here very often so you want to see it as cheap as possible, therefore I check.

[Trix]

I bet this, it isn´t that big a dissaster if you get check-raised here with 8-17 outs and all 3 of these guys came in from blinds, so I dont really expect them to have very good hands, but good enough that I dont want to give them a free shot at a 6BB pot. If I check and it gets checked through, then I will probably have to show it down anyway, so I´d rather bet now to try for a cheap SD or get an extra bet when I improve.

[Digs]

With a fd and those connectors on the board I bet this.

But I'm no good at this game /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[yoshi_yoshi]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought it was pretty easy too...I've discussed with baron already.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, could you guys share your thoughts? Seems like the poll is split, and hardly an easy decision at all.

I think a deciding factor could be in the cold-calling standards of the SB. Both the BB/CO can be put on some middle cards enough of the time so that a bet would be fine, if it were just them. For the SB, a lot of TAGs will either 3-bet or fold their aces, and since he called pre-flop and flop, a pocket pair is most likely, and a bet is still fine. OTOH, some other players will cold-call their ace-rag in the SB and proceed to call you all the way down. If this seems like SB, then the combined probability of the others having an ace would be fairly high, and I would check.

[TheMetetron]

Seemed like an easy bet to me at first. Poll seems very split, though.

[Lost Wages]

[ QUOTE ]
Poll seems very split, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That usually means that it really doesn't matter much either way.

Lost Wages

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Poll seems very split, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That usually means that it really doesn't matter much either way.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate this answer to any question. It does matter. Every play matters. I'm really interested in breaking this down further and seeing what the correct play is.

[kidcolin]

Kinda like the prez elections.

I like checking, because SB has me worried.

[Jinx]

Being check raised wouldn't be awful, but I don't see anyone folding an Ace here if they called the flop. If you check, there's some chance that CO check, and then you get to see the river for free. If you get a spade that's great, if it's a blank and SB bets out and BB calls, you can fold.

[ZZZ]

I voted check. I can see this being a bet though, looks close to me. Argument for checking: you are probably behind. Argument for betting: you are not behind a large majority of the time and you have outs and probably several callers.

What I don't understand is why my turn aggression is so high by 2+2 standards (3.5), and yet I still see checks where other people don't.

ZZZ

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this, it isn´t that big a dissaster if you get check-raised here with 8-17 outs and all 3 of these guys came in from blinds, so I dont really expect them to have very good hands, but good enough that I dont want to give them a free shot at a 6BB pot. If I check and it gets checked through, then I will probably have to show it down anyway, so I´d rather bet now to try for a cheap SD or get an extra bet when I improve.

[/ QUOTE ]
I voted for bet then read the comments and Trix seems to sum my feelings on why a bet is good.

[Cancuk]

I think you bet and fold the river UI.

cheers.

[Lost Wages]

Well, I voted for check. When three opponents call the flop bet of the preflop raiser on an Ace high flush draw board and the turn brings the flush and makes 2 pair for 76 or 87 and fills some gutshots, I don't think that Kings are ever good. Against one opponent bet. Against 2 it's close. But 3 is a definite check IMO. Two players have already checked so you only need the CO to cooperate to get the free card that you need. If there was a reasonable chance that you had the best hand or if you could fold to a raise then a bet would be mandatory but that's not the case here. IMO, a bet is -EV and needlessly risks a raise.

Lost Wages

[RunDownHouse]

I bet. Worst case scenario is CO raises and everyone else folds, and even then you've got outs. I think its more likely that you'll get a caller or three or a c/r from the blinds, and even a c/r is a smaller and smaller disaster the more people that are in the pot.

If you don't improve, the river is a pretty easy check.

[wheelz]

I voted check, I'm with Lost Wages. Yeah we have a lot of outs so getting check raised isn't disastrous, etc., but I don't think we ever have the best hand here. So why bet? Maybe getting check-raised isn't terrible for our hand, but why put in more bets when you don't need to. Only one player to act behind us, I'd rather get a free card.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Poll seems very split, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats because lots of 2+2ers are morons.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet. Worst case scenario is CO raises and everyone else folds, and even then you've got outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what's the best case scenario (besides a spade coming on the river, you can't predict that)? You don't get raised and check behind on the river UI and probably lose. Which costs the same as checking behind on the turn and calling the river would, but no risk involved. I don't understand why we want to risk it.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Poll seems very split, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats because lots of 2+2ers are morons.

[/ QUOTE ]

What did you vote? I'm curious.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet. Worst case scenario is CO raises and everyone else folds, and even then you've got outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what's the best case scenario (besides a spade coming on the river, that doesn't count)? You don't get raised and check behind on the river UI and probably lose. Which costs the same as checking behind on the turn and calling the river would, but no risk involved. I don't understand why we want to risk it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wheelz I voted check because getting raised here is -EV and even getting called here is probably -EV barring the hand ranges we put them on. But a free card definitely doesn't hurt us here.


I'm sure NL soldier disagrees though /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[wheelz]

Huh? I said I wanted to check and hope for a free card too. What I mean is, everyone says "well if you get check raised it's not a big deal," but it's not better than getting a free card. So why choose putting in 1-2 bets with what has to be the worst hand, when checking allows you to put in probably 0-1

[BabyJesus]

Why put in a bet when you're behind? You have soooooo little chance of being ahead in this situation. You can make the argument that you have outs to the nut flush. Just because you still have a decent hand to see the river with even if you're check raised isn't a good reason to bet again.
A pair of aces is still going to call you on this board, these players don't fold top pair.

I can see an argument for betting the turn if you're against a lesser feild (only one opponent or possibly two if you have position on both of them).

I vote for checking and calling a bet or a bet and raise. Folding river unimproved.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet. Worst case scenario is CO raises and everyone else folds, and even then you've got outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what's the best case scenario (besides a spade coming on the river, that doesn't count)? You don't get raised and check behind on the river UI and probably lose. Which costs the same as checking behind on the turn and calling the river would, but no risk involved. I don't understand why we want to risk it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wheelz I voted check because getting raised here is -EV and even getting called here is probably -EV barring the hand ranges we put them on. But a free card definitely doesn't hurt us here.


I'm sure NL soldier disagrees though /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha nope, even I think its a check. Unless these opponents are total assclowns.

[baronzeus]

I was agreeing with you. Sorry, I can't type and think at the same time. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[BabyJesus]

This hand seems really easy, the poll just illustrates that people on this forum are way too aggressive and not thinking about each situation independently. Sometimes the correct play is in fact to be passive with your hand, float someone preflop, check call your draw to let more people in. You have to know when the correct time to be passive is.
Yes, most of the time you take the lead with KK and don't let up until you see some resistance. But comeon this board is sickening and you have 3 opponents.

[wheelz]

Yeah, and I can't read and play at the same time either /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

OK I'm glad we're all on the same page here now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[aK13]

I thought this was a super easy check. HU, it's an easy bet. With 2 opponents, I think it's a lot tougher, but I'd probably bet there.

[wheelz]

What do you know, a lot more people want to check all of a sudden /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you know, a lot more people want to check all of a sudden /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I can vouch for him, as soon as I posted he AIMed me and said

"I voted check. Eh?"

And I agreed (of course /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

But check is still losing /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[wheelz]

Yeah I didn't mean him, I just replied to the bottom post...

Wow a lot of misunderstanding going on in this thread /images/graemlins/wink.gif

it's catching up though

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I didn't mean him, I just replied to the bottom post...

Wow a lot of misunderstanding going on in this thread

[/ QUOTE ]


Either way, as soon as lost wages posted his thoughts a lot of ppl are thinking check too /images/graemlins/smile.gif I was super surprised when everyone voted bet, not because I knew it was wrong, but because my initial reaction was the opposite.

[wheelz]

I blame Trix.

[iluzion]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Poll seems very split, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That usually means that it really doesn't matter much either way.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate this answer to any question. It does matter. Every play matters. I'm really interested in breaking this down further and seeing what the correct play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that it doesn't matter, its just that the difference in EV is slim.

[RiverDood]

Just to stir it up a bit . . .

I voted "bet" mostly because of the implications if a 4th spade does come on the river. Now it's a bigger pot. Now some people think I'm in the hand with a strong A or two pair. I'm more likely to get called by everyone on a river bet and maybe even raised by someone with a Qs or Js.

Yes, being check-raised at the turn is the main concern. But this has the potential to be a huge pot that pays me off, and I think the semi-bluff here in expectation of greater river action is narrowly worth it.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to stir it up a bit . . .

I voted "bet" mostly because of the implications if a 4th spade does come on the river. Now it's a bigger pot. Now some people think I'm in the hand with a strong A or two pair. I'm more likely to get called by everyone on a river bet and maybe even raised by someone with a Qs or Js.

Yes, being check-raised at the turn is the main concern. But this has the potential to be a huge pot that pays me off, and I think the semi-bluff here in expectation of greater river action is narrowly worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that what hands are we trying to "bluff" out? We're very unlikely to pick up the pot, and we're not getting any hands we'd like to fold out. We're probably close to 99% of the time drawing, and we don't have enough equity to raise (I don't think).

[kidcolin]

Exactly. It isn't a semi-bluff because we're almost definitely behind in a 4-person pot. Getting raised and/or check-raised REALLY sucks because if it's from a flush, that's two less outs for us, and if a 4th spade hits, he'll likely check-call. The river action won't be crazy. Just hope for the free card, hit your spade, and piss off who ever was going for the check-raise and failed due to your superior ability.

[joker122]

there's the issue of betting because the risk of it getting checked through and giving a free card that will cost you the pot is much worse than getting checkraised with a bunch of outs. but in this spot, i think you're the one getting a free card. i check.

[Klepton]

if i bet here, and get c/red, i'm not pissed at all.

the pot is huge, so i know i'm behind, and with another spade on the river, i'm getting at least 2BB from these people.

HU of course easy bet

the only thing that would suck would be if they both called and someone donkbet a blank river, then i would probably do something stupid like crycall.