Quads - Expected Abberation?

[RocketManJames]

So, I've been playing on an online site (fairly popular one)... I haven't played on this particular in a long time. The last time I played on it, I noticed a TON of quads. I didn't think much of it, and I chalked it up to variance.

Well this weekend, I started playing on it again. I've played about 700 hands... and here's what I've seen.

Total of 11 SHOWN quads. And, 2 'quite possible' quads where there was no showdown. Basically, flop of 555 and TTT, and a bit of action.

Of the 11 shown quads, 2 of them were pocket pairs. One flopped quads, and the other was a set that improved to quads.

The reason I started counting was that I saw three quads in a stretch of about 30 hands.

Anyway, this feels totally wrong. And, I'm not one to accuse any site of having a screwy RNG. What do you think? Is it more likely that I am seeing some aberration that is expected or more likely that the RNG is not quite right?

-RMJ

[RocketManJames]

Played another 100 hands since my original post... and well, someone had quads with A5 on a board: 55xx5

-RMJ

My guess is you see more quads online, because lots of people stay in with weaker holdings to see what happens. The percentage of quads in a game where only 2 people see the flop would be much less than a Nofoldem style game. It does seem like the quads are running high on the variance spectrum at your tables recently, but that is to be expected sometimes.

[RocketManJames]

Well, I play quite a few hands on a handful of sites. It is only this one site that I've ever seen the excessive quads.

From what I've learned reading posts here, if someone says they observed something is that far out of line from normal, then there's a good chance it wasn't normal or the observation was fabricated.

Now, my question is... if you observed what I observed, and knowing nothing about where I observed it (online, live, whatever). Would you think something was fishy? Would you think I was lying about what I saw?

It's just odd that I've seen this on this particular site on more than one occasion. And, I don't think it has affected the games much, just found it really weird.

-RMJ

[LetYouDown]

On any individual hand, a player has 13 * C(48,3)/C(52,7) odds of getting quads, I believe, or about .17%. So if everyone has this same opportunity, there's a roughly 1.7% chance that a 10 person table will have quads on any given hand. So you could expect this roughly every ~58-59 hands. I know these numbers are at least slightly off...but I think it falls well within the realm of possibility that quads will show up 11 times in a 700 hand stretch at a 10 person table. The table would have to be pretty loose to see all of them, but I don't think it's *that* big a stretch.

But online poker is rigged. Move to a non-pattern mapped table.

Edit: My math should work for one person being dealt 7000 hands, as opposed to 10 people being dealt 700 hands. I don't have time to compute that probability, but I don't think it's going to be *that* far off.

[RocketManJames]

Thanks for your reply... but I am not so sure about your "edit" section.

I would have guessed that 1 person being dealt 7000 hold'em hands would be vastly different than 10 people being dealt 700 hands. This is due to the existence of the community cards that everyone shares. But, I might be wrong. As I said, it is my guess. Similarly, I think that it is for this reason that you are more likely to see stronger hands more often in a game such as 7-card stud.

Anyone care to expand on this?

-RMJ

[Duke]

I think that it's very far off.

~D

[timex]

I think its very similar, if you have a board showing a pair and only 1 player playing, they will have quads about 1/1100 times. If they play ten hands, on this board, they will hit quads about ~1/110 times. If there are 10 players at the table, they will each have quads about 1/1100 times 1*10/1100 = 1/110. For every case the same thing can be done whether there are 3 of a kind on the board one pair or 2 pair.

[RocketManJames]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its very similar, if you have a board showing a pair and only 1 player playing, they will have quads about 1/1100 times. If they play ten hands, on this board, they will hit quads about ~1/110 times. If there are 10 players at the table, they will each have quads about 1/1100 times 1*10/1100 = 1/110. For every case the same thing can be done whether there are 3 of a kind on the board one pair or 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this reasoning is flawed due to independence issues. Can someone else chime in?

-RMJ

[LetYouDown]

You definitely need to apply the inclusion/exclusion (or similar) principle here to get an exact answer. I was just reaching for a ballpark estimate that might be within the first standard deviation when propogated over a few thousand hands.

[BigBiceps]

I noticed the same thing as a new account on party poker. Lots of people making quads.

In fact in the 3k hands I played, I should have got quads once at most (assuming I played every hand to the river). I in fact got quads 4 times with pocket pairs, and once when there was trips on the board. That is 5*4/3, about 6-7x the amount of quads I should get and I thought it was strange. It made me thing that there is "biased randomization" on partypoker.

I am still new though, so it could be "beginners luck".

Also, I saw something I thought was weird, my very first hand on full tilt was pocket aces. Did anyone else have that their very first hand?

[RocketManJames]

Maybe the others are right and it's just normal and not that far out of line. I have never seen the "quads effect" on Party Poker and its skins. That's where I usually play.

But, on this *other* site, I have seen the high quads volume on the two most recent completely separate (longish) sessions.

-RMJ

[LetYouDown]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I saw something I thought was weird, my very first hand on full tilt was pocket aces. Did anyone else have that their very first hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
One out of every 221 people win a contest of sorts that gets them A-A on their first hand. Most sites have this contest.

[UATrewqaz]

Is this crazy quad site Paradise??

I've seen 4 or 5 quads in less than a thousand hands there clearing the latest bonus.

[RocketManJames]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this crazy quad site Paradise??

I've seen 4 or 5 quads in less than a thousand hands there clearing the latest bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is. I didn't want to name the site, but yes. I played more last night... about 250 hands, and I saw 2 more quads. I am not suggesting anything about the site being rigged, but it sure seems strange. Some funky RNG issue?

-RMJ

[UATrewqaz]

I also agree the people who scream about sites being rigged are idiotic, however somehow I also knew it was paradise. I have seen more quads there in the past 600-800 hands clearing this bonus than my last 10K at Party Poker.

Just saying... I don't play on Paradise, don't plan on it, and don't feel comfortable playing on it, especially now. I'm probably just paranoid, but so be it. I have no mathematical backing, it's just my personal preference.

It is very funny how nervous people are to question any abberations on this forum. When anyone questions anything, they always have to qualify it by saying "I'm certainly not an idiotic conspiracy theorist" etc.. Question what ever you want. Let the nerds grab their calculators and bibles and trust in honesty of the offshore poker business community. Also, wish them luck when talking to the car salesman that wants to get them the best deal possible.