I'm at my wits end ...

[RiverDancer]

My problem in poker has always been playing beyond my bankroll. I know this, and I've tried to be better about it, but it is my best leak. I've been a pretty successful mid-stakes player - mainly live games, although I had played alot online as well. I've decided to take up the small-stakes online games, get PT, and try and do the whole thing "the right way" playing with the right BR and whatnot. So far this a smashing failure. I suspect I'm just running bad right now. I've read the Skalansky Low-Limit book and I'm very well aware of the pot-odds concept of low-limit and how making calls in these games is EV+ while they are EV- in most reasonable games.

Since I'm fairly new to PT, my question is this: Is there a method you guys would suggest using PT to help me determine if my play is poor, or if I'm just running bad? I don't have a great sample yet, only 5K hands. My VPIP is about 32 while my Preflop Raise % is around 10%. I suppose the VPIP is a bit high (when I played 10/20 I would guess it was around 20), but the increased hands are in late position and generally some sort of suited connector.

If you guys have some sort of measuring stick I could use that would be great.

RiverDancer

[Harv72b]

This should help. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2129886&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

A VPIP of 32 is way too high for online poker. You just aren't going to have as high a donk percentage as you'll find in the typical B&M game, and worse yet the donks tend to come & go quickly (and are usually replaced by solid players lured in by the high avg. pot size). Even if you're playing 6max 32% is too much.

[W. Deranged]

For starters, if you are playing 32% of hands there are absolutely hands included that you should never be playing.

My thoughts tend to be that different players can have VPIP's ranging between 15% and 22% for a full ring game, depending on playing style and what your strengths are (most simply, better post-flop players can play more hands).

If you are playing almost a third of a hands, and entering for calls for nearly a quarter of your hands, simply put, you are a fish.

Read some books (start with "Getting Started in Holdem," "Small Stakes Holdem," and "Theory of Poker"; "Middle Limit Holdem" is also good). Read a lot on this board.

You've revealed enough in your post for me to say with confidence that you should strongly consider "rebuilding" your game basically from the ground up.

[soweak.]

First off, welcome to the forums!

Second, I would agree that it does seem like you're playing too many hands. There was a post earlier this year (and I will try to find it) by CallMeIshmael (i think) that basically found the average VP$IP of some very good players on 2p2. That number ended up between 15% and 20%. That is considered the standart for "correct" play. less than this and you are playing too few hands, and more means you're playing way to many hands.

Third, your sample size is pretty low.voer my first 10K hands at 3/6 I was beating the game for 1.5 BB/100, over the last 3K hands, a -125BB run, that number is now down to around .5. Expect that there will be a higher volatility of variance online as opposed to live because online is more aggressive and since the hands come faster, it will seem worse than it really is.

Other than that, I suggest picking up Small Stakes Hold 'Em, because this book deals the best directly with the opponents at the levels you 'll be playing online.

[chief444]

Welcom to the forums.

You're too loose. And more importantly...and don't take this as some sort of insult because it's meant to be helpful...you're probably not nearly as good as you think you are. Keep on reading and posting here and you'll have no problem beating these low limit games before you know it.

[RiverDancer]

Very interesting and insightful suggestions, thank you. As I said I have been playing for quite awhile, and my recent looser play has actually been because I had read the Skalansky Low-Limit book. Now I'm wondering what hands I should be cutting out to maximize EV in these games. Do any of you fold hands like 45s and 33, etc in loose passive games in late position? These hands seem EV+ to me with a larger field. It seems like the hands I lose the most money with are hand like AKs or AKo, AQ, QQ, JJ from early position. After 5K hands I'm still losing 2.35 BB per 100 hands with AK suited.

Thanks again for the insight.

RiverDancer

[chief444]

Suited connectors and little pairs in LP are fine with some limpers and no raise...sure. But at 32% there have to be a lot that aren't fine. Post some hands you're unsure about and you'll get some good responses I'm sure.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Very interesting and insightful suggestions, thank you. As I said I have been playing for quite awhile, and my recent looser play has actually been because I had read the Skalansky Low-Limit book. Now I'm wondering what hands I should be cutting out to maximize EV in these games. Do any of you fold hands like 45s and 33, etc in loose passive games in late position? These hands seem EV+ to me with a larger field. It seems like the hands I lose the most money with are hand like AKs or AKo, AQ, QQ, JJ from early position. After 5K hands I'm still losing 2.35 BB per 100 hands with AK suited.

Thanks again for the insight.

RiverDancer

[/ QUOTE ]

The numbers you quote for AK suited are almost certainly largely due to sample size. I had like an 8k stretch for which AKs was a loser for me. It's not a losing hand. Almost everyone will make money with that hand in the long run, unless you really play poorly postflop.

A couple of things to think about:

1. Pre-flop play is NOT the most important thing. If anything, I would say you should simply tighten way up and get down to a conservative 15-16% VPIP range and then work very seriously on your post-flop play (you'll notice that about 90% of the discussion here is on post-flop play and most people sort of shy away from pre-flop discussion as cliched/boring/irrelevant).

2. Learn to think more situationally. It's not a question of whether 54s or 33 is a playable hand. Personally, I play small pairs very frequently, and one of the reasons is because I'm confident in my ability to extract strong value out of them post-flop. But really, you should learn to think about what conditions are necessary (position, number of players, opponent's playing style's, etc...) for certain hands to be profitable. Learning to think about pre-flop play conditionally will carry over to your post-flop play, where the real money is made.

With that said, limping in behind two fold in early position with 54s is probably not a profitable situation, for example. Limping in in the CO behind three limpers probably is.

[RiverDancer]

Yeah, I'll start trying to save some questionable ones. My reasoning is that if I have an estimated VPIP of 20% in 10/20 games where there are maybe 3 players to the flop, then it's not unreasonable for me to play about 30% of hands in a game where there are 5-6 players to a flop if I make most of the calls in late position. My results haven't backed up this theory so far, lol. Luck for me its LL and more of an experiment. Maybe I'm exploiting too many small edges and my variance is super high? Maybe I suck at low-limit? I'll try to post some more on my plight.

Thanks again,
RiverDancer

[W. Deranged]

Your question has some interesting fundamental theory of poker considerations. Basically, I think that you are thinking that because your opponents are entering with more hands and with weaker hands, you can begin to enter with weaker hands because:

1. More hands are now better than the average trash your opponents are playing.

2. There is more money in the pot to play for.

Here's the problem, in a full ring game some blind squirrel is going to find some nuts; there are going to be good hands out there regardless of the fact that more people are playing trash.

Hence, even though it may seem that you can make more money playing more hands because your opponents are playing weaker hands than yours and so they're making fundamental theory mistakes, realize that usually you, holding slightly better but still weak cards, are not the one making the profit. Instead, it's the blind squirrel who found the nuts.

Certain kinds of hands--like small pairs and suited connectors--certainly do improve in multiway pots with lots of limpers. But there are plenty of hands which simply aren't good enough to take the money (stuff like 85s, 87o, J7s) which I imagine you might be playing in an attempt to "push small edges."

[ebranig]

[ QUOTE ]
my recent looser play has actually been because I had read the Skalansky Low-Limit book.

[/ QUOTE ]

blaming poor results on a book, (especially a book as solid as SSHE which is I think what you're referring to) is not only in poor taste (these are the 2+2 forums!) but it's also indicative of a dangerous attitude.

poor players blame losses on everything but themselves...

[RiverDancer]

Saying that the reason for my looser play was because I read the book points to either a misunderstanding in it's general principles, or a topic for thoughtful discourse. I play a tighter, more aggressive game in mid-stakes 10/20, 20/40 because I read Limit Holdem for Advanced Players. Trust me when I say that David Skalasky is not going to lose sleep over my post and neither should you.

[RiverDancer]

Looking at my positional stats, my BB/100 in 6th and 7th off the BB are both about -.23/ Could this be my big leak? Playing bad cards up front? Do you guys have positive stats for all of your positions? I have a -.15 for the BB, but I guess that's weighted without the blinds factored in.
Again, thank you all for the help.
RiverDancer

[W. Deranged]

I think we may be getting toward a diagnosis...

Yes, you're playing too many hands up front.

Let me ask you a question: You find yourself with QTo in UTG+1 behind one fold at a standard table. What is your play?

[RiverDancer]

QTo fold, QTs call, QJo call, QJs raise ...

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
QTo fold, QTs call, QJo call, QJs raise ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not bad. Most hear will tell you QJo is in fact a fold in this position, as are JTo, KTo, and KJo (this is open to a bit more debate).

Also think about why you are raising QJs in this position. You have a hand that is vulnerable to domination and plays much better in a multiway pot. Why raise to shut out customer who could help you build a pot? I'm much more likely to raise QJs in late position behind limpers than I am to raise it first in in early position. On the other hand, I'm more likely to raise KQo in early position first in than I am in late position behind a bunch of limpers. Think about what your pre-flop moves are trying to accomplish against the fishy low limit players: are you trying to get the pot short-handed? Are you raising for value? Do you prefer a multiway pot? etc...

[RiverDancer]

Intuitively I would thing that TJo and KTo are folds, while KJo is a call. In a higher stakes game I would fold the prior 2 and raise the latter.

[ebranig]

My only point is that you're losing because you're raising QJs in early position... not because you read Sklanksy's book.

I've seen tons of players blame their losses on factors other than their own play. This is an easy case of such behavior.

[krubban]

If think you should completely stop playing the offsuited marginal hands for a while and see where your vpip lands. Only play QJo and KJo from the co or button. KTo and QTo you can stop playing completely.
Only limp in with suited connectors, small pairs and small suited aces in late position after at least 2 limpers.
By doing this you will put yourself in less marginal situations and not being isolated as often.
When you get comfortable with this you can start to add more hands but it's better to start off to tight then to loose.