Chip values of lost vs won chips

[ekky]

I was thinking about the Raptor thread where he had the AJ and played it an a way that on paper seemed incorrect, and it got me thinking about chip value discrepancies for players of his calibre.

Essentially, does a good players chance of winning go down more if they lose 200 chips, then it goes up if they win 200 chips?

The main thrust of this is that the top players on here make their living around the bubble, and losing 200 chips knocking them down to 800, seriously hinders their play when it becomes short handed... which leads me to think that even if a play is chip EV+, a 60% chance of winning 200 chips isn't worth the 40% chance of losing 200, and not being able to pwn the bubble.

I cant really put what I mean into words, but it seems like it mite be a valid reason as to why he/other good players are willing to refuse close decisions for a reasonable portion of their chips early, even though by most standards the move is +EV

I apologise if:

a) this is a load of horse-[censored]
b) this has been covered elsewhere, I couldn't find it in the archives.

I'm primarily an MTT player, so forgive me if this is class A nonsense, it was just a thought that has been floating around for a while.

[the shadow]

[ QUOTE ]
I apologise if:

a) this is a load of horse-[censored]
b) this has been covered elsewhere, I couldn't find it in the archives.


[/ QUOTE ]

A. It isn't.
B. It has been. Search for ICM.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Essentially, does a good players chance of winning go down more if they lose 200 chips, then it goes up if they win 200 chips?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and by a lot imo at the lower levels. in the 109s and 215s, you have to open up yer game a lot more in the early stages though and have to take those risks to get the extra 200. everyone is so maniacal on the bubble its hard to maintain much of an edge by just playing pushbot strategy. holla

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Essentially, does a good players chance of winning go down more if they lose 200 chips, then it goes up if they win 200 chips?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and by a lot imo at the lower levels. in the 109s and 215s, you have to open up yer game a lot more in the early stages though and have to take those risks to get the extra 200. everyone is so maniacal on the bubble its hard to maintain much of an edge by just playing pushbot strategy. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

good point. Lower the buyin, the more a good player should pass up slight edges because he/she has a bigger edge later. At the higher buyins, where most know what is going on, a good player cant take enough advantage at the bubble as a low buin player would and hence cant pass up too many edges earlier.

at the low buyins, having just 1 or 2 out of 5 or 6 on/near the bubble not understand the bubble and blind and stack size dynamics is a HUGE edge for a good player.