Checking the Turn Behind with an Overpair

[toss]

3/6 Full

A Semi-loose semi-passive guy limps in EP, I raise with black AA, seemingly solid BB 3-bets, EP caps, we all call.

Flop is 749 with two diamonds. (11.5SBs) BB bets, EP calls, I raise, BB 3-bets, EP caps!, we all call.

Turn is an ugly K of diamonds. (12BBs or so) They both check, I check...

[W. Deranged]

Toss,

I'm suprised this made it to page 2 without any responses. I think this is kind of an interesting hand.

Okay, so:

Reasons to bet the turn:

1. For value: You are still crushing plenty of possibly hands like QQ, JJ, TT, AK. The two checks to you on the turn perhaps indicate that that was a scary card for all involved.

2. Protection/Charging Draws: You don't want to give a hand like JJ with a diamond in it a free turn. This sort of hand *might* occassionally fold the turn which would be pretty coo'.

3. May keep you from getting in a tough spot on the river. What are you doing if you check and the river goes bet-raise? This idea is hard to really nail down, but I imagine a turn check might induce your opponents to do some odd stuff here.

Reasons to check behind on the turn:

1. That card very likely hit some possible hands, including KK and big diamond draws. Hence you are fairly likely to get check-raised here.

2. You don't want to have to call down multiple additional big bets here is you are behind, so getting check-raised sucks, but at the same time it's pretty hard to fold now because you might get raised by AK or the other two AA, particularly since those hands are likely to include the nut diamond draw.

Overall, I actually kind of like a check here it turns outs, basically because, weighing the above, I figure that we probably aren't going to force a big diamond out here almost ever, and I am very concerned about either spewing 3 BB on these final two streets or getting forced to lay down the best hand because of a seemingly likely turn semi-bluff. This is tough though and I'd like to see some more discussion.

[toss]

All those reasons you've listed are very good, but the main thing that prompted to make me check the turn was the way villains played their hand. Check/3-bet/Cap PF and on the Flop made me feel I was up against AA, KK, QQ a whole lot. I checked behind fearing a CR a lot.

I would think the call-cap on the flop was either a set or 2 overs and w/ a flush draw so the turn check is fine imo.

[toss]

Is this turn check really easy?

I checked behind and the river was a blank. Check, check, and I bet...

[stackm]

I don't mind a check here, but I think you're ahead quite a bit. This pot was capped before and after the flop. If one of the other players has a monster, why check the flop? They've got to assume they're going to get raised anyway.
Look at it this way: if you bet and aren't raised, you'll make 3 bets (hard to imagine anyone folding). If you're checkraised, you'll lose 2 bets. Thus, you have to be ahead roughly 40% of the time for a bet here to make sense.

I'd bet, call if raised and call the river as well (as long as the fourth diamond doesn't hit). Yes, you're almost surely dead to a set or flush here, but you're getting close to 20-1 at that point. At least one in twenty times you're going to get shown some combination of TT, JJ, QQ, and the other AA.

[baronzeus]

The main reason I bet here is because I don't want the river to be the 4th diamond. That would cost me a big pot that I might be very far ahead it.

[stackm]

None of these players are folding a diamond here anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
None of these players are folding a diamond here anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
If thats the case, than bet the turn and make them pay to draw to their flush. I think not betting this turn is a sin. Given the action thus far I think our hero is ahead a large percentage of time, so bet for value and make more money.

[jstewsmole]

The EP capping it after just limping is throwing me off.
U have AA which obviously makes it much harder to put EP on that as well. KK is another hand this might be done with. And limp reraising IMO, with QQ seems like a stretch.

I think i bet here, i dont think u get c/r here as often as u think. (at least one that is bluffing)

For one thing i think most of the time a set is going to fire again at the turn knowing he has the best hand (also that overpairs arenot folding here)and with all the flop action it could get checked through. Combine that with a 3rd diamond hitting the turn that makes it morelikelly that a set would not risk giving a free card.

I think ur ahead here alot, especially when the turn gets checked. That third diamond and K look just as scary or even scarier to them. I dont think AK is going to c/r u when he hits his K unless hes a total dickhead. And if ur up against someone like that this pot is too big to fold to it IMO.

[jstewsmole]

Is EP on tilt or some s hit. Im looking at his play and its [censored] completely whacked.

At first glance BB looks like he could have 99 but i dont see him checking with a set on the turn knowing that overpairs are not leaving unless hes suffering from fancy play syndrome.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
A Semi-loose semi-passive guy limp-caps in EP...EP call-caps...

[/ QUOTE ]

Paraphrased your OP for brevity.

Yeah. This is an easy turn check. I like the river bet-call (I presume?) line, to.