$5-10 QQ bad river

[Dan Rutter]

I am dealt Qs Qc UTG and raise 9 handed. Folds to the button who calls. Blinds fold. Button has been at the table for around 20-30 minutes. I do not have a note written on him yet, but he does not seem to be playing many hands PF. He is at least not as loose and wild as the other players at the table.

Flop Tc 5d Jh

I bet, he raises, I re-raise, he calls.

Turn is Th

I bet, he calls.

River Jc (pot is $77.5 minus rake)

Whats my action, and plan?

[lighterjobs]

check, call. he could have raised on the flop with QK or any straight draw or AK or any ace thinking it is good. getting ~9-1 after rake is a good enough price to call him down.

[baronzeus]

I bet and probably call....bet fold is good if he is very straight forward but this is a nice card to bluff on.

[davet]

Fire away.

I am guessing that the river is "bad" because it paired. Why wouldn't you think the turn is bad with the same logic?

[Dan Rutter]

[ QUOTE ]

I am guessing that the river is "bad" because it paired. Why wouldn't you think the turn is bad with the same logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

[Roland19]

[ QUOTE ]

Fire away.

I am guessing that the river is "bad" because it paired. Why wouldn't you think the turn is bad with the same logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because now the board is double paired and the raise on the flop from villian very well could have meant top pair.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]

Fire away.

I am guessing that the river is "bad" because it paired. Why wouldn't you think the turn is bad with the same logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the way the flop played out it is much more likely he has a J than a T, thus the river card is more worrisome.

[Roland19]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Fire away.

I am guessing that the river is "bad" because it paired. Why wouldn't you think the turn is bad with the same logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the way the flop played out it is much more likely he has a J than a T, thus the river card is more worrisome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha ha. I beat you to the punch.

[krubban]

I would c/c because I would hate to be raised here.

[bigalt]

[ QUOTE ]
Because the way the flop played out it is much more likely he has a J than a T, thus the river card is more worrisome.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the flop plays exactly the same way whether he had a T, J, 99, AQ, or AK.

I think you're missing too many calls by an ace to not bet this river, and that the more difficult question is whether to fold to a raise.

[Solid_p]

I would check, call. Getting raised here would suck big. Check and let him bluff at it. I think you would be good here enough of the time to make it +EV.

[MyTurn2Raise]

With no read on the player...I bet. What could he have? Did he cold call with no other limpers with a jack? AJs is a possibility I guess, but you said he seems to play pretty tight. My guess is a smaller pocket pair that hopes to pick off your AK, an AK hoping to chop, or a KQs that missed it's straight. I'm leaning heavily towards a small pair the way it played out.

[27offsooot]

Either c/c or c/f. I think that the way u played it, it is pretty obvious to rational opponents that u are checking with the intention of calling, so I don't know how often u will get bluffed at. However, if he has 88/99, he may be retarded and bluff at it, so sure, go ahead and call the bet depending on reads. I think betting here though is a mistake, because u're not getting called by 8 or 9 high and other than A5, it's hard to give opponent an A that he'll call u down with.

[W. Deranged]

Check. Shuffle. Vomit in mouth a little. Call.

I think the argument that you would be missing too many value calls from A high here is not particularly convincing. Unless villain is a known maniac, I don't really see A high often here. AK and AQ are the most likely hand to be raising the flop that you are still ahead of, and those might have reraised pre-flop.

Plus (perhaps most importantly) I think are often as likely to get A high to bet by checking as you are to get it to call by betting. So I don't think you lose that much.

Any line here that advocates possibly putting in two bets on the river here is total spewing in my opinion. Betting here and calling a raise is reckless poker.

I think an argument can be made for check-folding against some opponents but not an unknown, since many will in fact bet A high thinking it's the best hand or bluff the obvious river scare card.

[gaming_mouse]

This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering the disagreement, u might want to provide a reason.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have a very hard time seeing why check-call is "terrible" here.

[toss]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have a very hard time seeing why check-call is "terrible" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess he feels a J or T is highly likely given read of villain and the raise on the flop.

[baronzeus]

check fold is absolutely horrible when a decent player raises AK and AQ on this flop.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have a very hard time seeing why check-call is "terrible" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess he feels a J or T is highly likely given read of villain and the raise on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that but that does not explain why bet-folding is so much better than check-calling (it is not, in my opinion, and I don't think it's that close).

[toss]

I think given the sparse read on villain he'll be more likely to call with A-high rather than raise it. By bet-folding we can extract value from an A-high and safely fold when we get raised.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I think given the sparse read on villain he'll be more likely to call with A-high rather than raise it. By bet-folding we can extract value from an A-high and safely fold when we get raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands does villain likely have here that contain an A in them and are not beating us?

How often is AK not three-betting pre-flop but raising a missed flop?

AQ I guess is the most likely here.

AJ and AT have us crushed anyway.

What other A's are involved here? A9?

I think villain is much more likely to either have us beat or have some kind of totally busted hand, like 88 or KQ. I think there is much more value in attempting to induce a bluff than hoping to get a call for value. Villain has a hand here that's he's calling with that isn't beating us very rarely in my opinion.

[baronzeus]

I think AK and AQ are both possible and equally likely here, especially for someone who is tight preflop but aggressive postflop.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AK and AQ are both possible and equally likely here, especially for someone who is tight preflop but aggressive postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should add that AQ is somewhat unlikely because we hold two Qs in our hand.

Without a read I guess AK is a somewhat realistic possibility but I do think even many tight/passivish preflop players would be three-betting here on the button with that hand.

[baronzeus]

Right,

I said they are equally likely since AK is usually 3bet preflop but there are 16 comboes of AK and only 8 comboes of AQ. There are also 8 comboes of KQ here.

Also, AT and AJ are 8 comboes each. Just my two cents.

[toss]

Maybe he just called with AK since the raise was from UTG.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Right,

I said they are equally likely since AK is usually 3bet preflop but there are 16 comboes of AK and only 8 comboes of AQ. There are also 8 comboes of KQ here.

Also, AT and AJ are 8 comboes each. Just my two cents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got it.

My basic thought here is that the vast majority of the time villain either has us beat (like 80% or more) or got even more screwed by the river than we did (holding something like KQ or 99). I think villain will pretty rarely have a hand that will call this river and not raise it.

Another reason to consider why checking is better than bet-calling is an opponent with a T in his hand may check this river behind fearing a check-raise from Js full (not likely, but possible) and save us a bet. Certainly not a huge consideration but it may make a tiny difference.

[baronzeus]

perhaps the river puts him in a bad spot, but 99 is super unlikely IMO.

But I also think A high calls here about 98% of the time hoping for a split. I can't imagine him folding any hand AK-AT but he will probably just call with AT and raise with AJ. So he raises with like 8 hands and calls with about 24 imo....i doubt he calls with KQ unless he has an expert read taht says you ahve 99 or something stupid.


edit: if this guy is really weak tight the easiest option is bet/fold. if he is tricky and a good hand reader you may want to bet/call

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering the disagreement, u might want to provide a reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see AK playing the hand like this. I don't see AQ doing it either, but that's possible.

I don't think you'll induce a bluff here. You are almost never ahead if he bets the river when checked to. But I do think worse hands will call a bet.

Given the action, I think it is very unlikely that he has neither a J nor T.

All of the above could change with a read. But I took the comments to mean a tight/passive player, which, rereading the OP, I see was not totally warranted.

gm