Probably Boring, Possibly Interesting River Decision

[Stork]

Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

I open raise one off the button. Button cold calls and the blinds tag along.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

SB leads out. BB folds, I call, button folds.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB bets, I raise, SB calls.

River: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

SB bets.

Obviously I'm not folding the river, but do I have him quartered often enough to raise, or should I just call since there is a decent chance he has me quartered?

[DeadMoneyOC]

I think that this is somewhat player dependent but I would usually raise this river. Nut low and queens up will get 3/4 a lot more often than it will get 1/4. I would expect to chop here more often than not. But like I said, its player/situation dependent. IF this guy is a monkey I raise it everyday.

[sy_or_bust]

It's a raise, especially at PP 6-max. You're 3/4'ing far more often than you're 1/4'd. I've seen this line before (specifically, where SB foregoes a turn 3-bet to donkbet the river), and it means, at best, "I have A2 and little else."

[MyTurn2Raise]

Definitely read dependent, but I'm leaning heavily to the raise.
What could the SB have that s/he chose to bet out on the river 8, that s/he could not 3 bet you on the turn when you guys were heads up already (Maybe A288)?
If the SB hand was that good, I would think they would look for c/r on the river. IMO you're probably getting 1/2, but your chances at getting 3/4, or more, compared to 1/4, or less, are great.

[MyTurn2Raise]

damn...sy gave the same advice a minute before me

[Stork]

Thanks for all the replies. Forgot to mention this hand was played at 5/10, don't know if that matters but as far as I can tell most people are too loose in general, and too aggressive with the nut low. They also seem to overvalue mediocre high hands. Those are just my general observations, I've also played in some games that were way too tight where I could steal the blinds often.

In the hand I chickened out and called, was shown A2 with nothing else. I feel like I'm missing some of those value raises on the big streets with potential scooping/quartering hands. I'm still new to O8, so hopefully I'll get better at them though. The only material I've read on O8 is o8poker.com. I'm considering picking up Zee's split-poker book.

[Buzz]

simulation results for A24Q/A2XY/3468Qn
hand...high.....low..scoop...total
A2XY...1049.5...2500...0.....3549.5
A24Q...3950.5...2500...0.....6450.5

Stork - Focus on the second column above. A24Q is almost a four to one favorite for high over A2XY, where X and Y are random cards.

Buzz

[imported_big ben]

Like DM said, this is read dependent- but I think that it is EXTREMELY read dependent. Buzz's simulation is pretty helpful, but you must use your player read to help you come to a good decision here. Instead of thinking about missing big bets in this situation, you need to think of it in terms of missing/saving bb's in the long run in this game. I agree that PP shorthanded O8 has plenty of monkeys, but you haven't given us any info on your opponent. Just a little info goes a long way in terms of saving 1/4 of yours or getting 1/4 of his when you toss another one in.

Guys, am I wrong in placing too much emphasis on noting the player profile here??

[GooperMC]

Yes I think that you are. I raise here against 90% of my opponents and would cap against 30%.

Take this hand from your opponents POV. If I was him HU I bet here with nut low + top pair and maybe even nut low with 2nd or 3rd pair. I think that you are going to miss out on some money if you don't raise this situation the vast majority of the time.

[imported_big ben]

Thanks for the reply Goop- sometimes I have a tendency to rely more on player reads than the numbers in short-handed play.

[Drizztdj]

Against weak players overplaying their A2 definitely raise/cap the river with two pair on up.

I've seen many people push in NL/PL with nothing but a naked A2 low and no high.

[Stork]

Thanks, I over estimated how often he would have a straight, a set, or a better two pair here. I forgot that if he almost always had A2, he only had 2 cards to make a better high.

Btw, I assume the rest of the hand was played ok?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I forgot that if he almost always had A2, he only had 2 cards to make a better high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stork - Good way to look at it.

I guess I didn't have to run that simulation.
If Villain has A2XY, then you're almost a four to one (actually 3.91 to 1) favorite to have a better high hand. I think that's about how the simulation turned out - but the calculation is better (purer).
Here's my math:
4*3/2+4*37+3+3+3+2+2=167
41*40/2= 820
820-167=653.
653/167=3.91

But yeah, if Villain has an ace and a deuce, then Villain only has two other cards. It's kind of similar to playing heads-up in limit Texas hold 'em and having two pair, queens and fours with the board reading 3-4-6-8-Q-non-suited.
Non-limit or pot-limit, you might be wary about betting, but limit, I think you generally would bet your two pairs, queens and fours, for value. Depends, I guess. But generally, I think, you bet it.

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, I assume the rest of the hand was played ok?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say for sure, but I think so.

First betting round:
Your opponents who had not already folded seemed unfazed by your pre-flop raise. That kind of indicates to me that they're either fools or you usually enter the action with a pre-flop raise. If that's correct, then you certainly should raise before the flop with your very fine starting hand.

(Your starting hand is easily strong enough to make a pre-flop raise, but I don't think you should make pre-flop raises based solely on the strength of your starting hand).

What it boils down to, in my humble opinion, is if your opponents can't read your hand for what it is, then you should raise with such a fine starting hand. On the other hand, if you give your cards away by raising, especially when you usually limp, and if that will enable your opponents to play against you more effectively on the second, third, and/or fourth betting rounds, then I think you're better off limping. In this particular situation it's hard for me to tell for sure, but I don't think the pre-flop raise hurt you later in the hand and therefore it was fine.

Second betting round:
I have mixed feelings about your lack of a raise on the second betting round. On the one hand, by not betting you make reading you more difficult, and play on the third and fourth betting rounds correspondingly more difficult for your opponents - and the way things turned out, that line of play was probably best for you - and your back-up low did get counterfeited - and you also tend to suck in chasers by just calling. On the other hand, by raising after this flop, you increase your chances of scooping or getting 3/4, by possibly knocking out an opponent who might out-draw you for high. Bottom line: hard to say for sure, but I think your simple call on the second betting round was very effective.

Third betting round:
Finally, I do like your raise on the third betting round.

Buzz