A river bluff raise...

[ggbman]

I have been trying to do these a little less often, but i couldn't help myself here. I am not getting too much respect at this table right now from either of the opponents in this hand, so take that into account.


Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (3.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

[disjunction]

I'm always of the "Yeah, why not?" school. It sure does look like he's prepared to fold to a raise.

Whether this is the time to take your shot depends, I'd think, on whether you think there's a 25% the BB is dumb enough to be afraid of a 9 OR he thinks you can do this with a big ace.

[Lurker4]

I'd need a good TAG read to make this play (a TAG could maybe bet/fold this river w/a Q thinking you will check behind all lower PPs and possibly weaker Q's and bet your stronger Q's, A's and 9's). I don't like it readless since the pot isn't that big and you're investing 2 BB here. It does fold out another JT and Kdxd that are bluffing the river though, so that does have some merit, but I'd lean towards not bluffing here.

[Danenania]

What's with the flop check? This hand shouldn't even have seen a river.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
What's with the flop check? This hand shouldn't even have seen a river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Must bet flop. I don't know about the rive.r

Krishan

[ggbman]

This was about the first flop i haven't continuation bet in 5 months. I probably still should have bet it, but i didn't think i was taking it down against these players, they hadn't failed to showdown a hand against me yet.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
This was about the first flop i haven't continuation bet in 5 months. I probably still should have bet it, but i didn't think i was taking it down against these players, they hadn't failed to showdown a hand against me yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then the river raise cannot be right.

Anyway, flop bet is going to show a postive expectation against almost any line-up.

[ggbman]

I agree about the flop bet. What i would really like to focus on is how my opponents played the hand, their range, and if this makes the river raise correct.

[tongni]

[ QUOTE ]
they hadn't failed to showdown a hand against me yet.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
What i would really like to focus on is how my opponents played the hand, their range, and if this makes the river raise correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you answered your own question. But of course, it's all read dependant. I'd expect to be shown a weak ace here quite a bit.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
This was about the first flop i haven't continuation bet in 5 months. I probably still should have bet it, but i didn't think i was taking it down against these players, they hadn't failed to showdown a hand against me yet.

[/ QUOTE ]


odd. I check a lot of flops and this is an autobet


I like the river raise. I don't think he has anything, but could sometimes have K high or a small pair and fold

Unless your opponent is always bluff betting on the river when he misses (since some due) or is fairly weak-tight, I dont think you should try this very often. The problem with it is that your raise doesnt make a lot of sense. Also the fact that the bb called and then bet out when a blank fell leads me to believe that he actually has hit something, but didnt want to lose to a draw.


Note:
There is a very good bluff river raise that works very well in the right conditions. Suppose you are on a flush draw in a medium sized pot, but there is also a straight draw on the board. If the other player is betting out constantly, and on the river your flush draw doesnt come in on the turn or river, but a straight draw does, consider raising then. Your opponent knows you are on a draw, but doesnt know which one. Of course, you first should know how likely your opponent is to showdown even if he suspects that you have drawn out on him.

[mtdoak]

Consider the % of time you'll win when called. Your risking 2 bets here, to win 6.25. So he needs to fold at least 1/3 of the time here. I think your lucky if he folds 10% of the time. IF your going to bluff raise, make it a semibluff raise on the turn in position. This is just a waste of 2 BB.

[ggbman]

Ok, so a couple of things. I realize that saying these guys have yet to fold before showdown and bluff-raising a river seem contradictory. However, i think we need more analysis of their hand range. When everyone checks through the flop, it's very likely that no one has an ace, there is an extremely remote possibility of someone being tricky and having aces full. (In their eyes, this could be me though)

So i pick up the open ender on the turn, it seems like an easy bet given the action. I planned to 3 bet a raise, but i just got that one call from the blind.

When he donks this river, is this EVER a hand he really wants to showdown. I want someone to give me 3 hands he is value betting here. I think this just screamed, "I don't want to showdown." So i raised. Given my more complete analysis, hopefully there will be some more insight into thier range now.

Gabe

Oooops, said "lose to a draw" -&gt; There isnt much for draws on the board. Disregard that. Hearts and diamonds a flush does not make.

[mtdoak]

22, any sort of mid pair, a weak ace. Bluff raises on the river should be reserved for players you have great control over and are pretty sure what they hold. Whats he going to fold here getting 8-1?

[imitation]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so a couple of things. I realize that saying these guys have yet to fold before showdown and bluff-raising a river seem contradictory. However, i think we need more analysis of their hand range. When everyone checks through the flop, it's very likely that no one has an ace, there is an extremely remote possibility of someone being tricky and having aces full. (In their eyes, this could be me though)

So i pick up the open ender on the turn, it seems like an easy bet given the action. I planned to 3 bet a raise, but i just got that one call from the blind.

When he donks this river, is this EVER a hand he really wants to showdown. I want someone to give me 3 hands he is value betting here. I think this just screamed, "I don't want to showdown." So i raised. Given my more complete analysis, hopefully there will be some more insight into thier range now.

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

If you 3-bet the turn that really would have been spewing (if you get raised on the turn given the flop action you are unlikely folding the raiser with your 3-bet and risk being 4-bet with a dog hand at that point, where as calling the raise allows you to very likely CR or raise the river when you make your hand and get the same bets as if you had 3-bet the turn and been called).

I agree that generally this river donk is I don't want to showdown and I think a river raise is pretty solid, unfortunately alot alot of players on the net seem to call these raises with garbage PP, pair of Qs, just to look you up. I just haven't found players generally liking to make river laydowns. But I on the other hand realize I need to be bluff raising more rivers HU, and I think this is a good to great opportunity for it.

[ggbman]

Well, like i said earlier, the river donk seemed fishy to me, so i popped him and he folded. I could have saved myself a headache by betting the flop, but i got an extra 2BB outta him this way!

[ALL1N]

I think a call is better than a raise.

Edit - actually I've changed my mind already. Raise is good.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a call is better than a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow and i thought this thread was dead. I strongly disagree, but i would like to hear you elaborate on the merits of this a bit, i don't see why a river call is good here.

[ALL1N]

Nah I was giving the guy too much credit. People often bluff K high when it should be played for showdown value, so yeah, raise should work.