Hand analysis - what do you think this guy could have?

[PokerFox]

Brand new table, haven't seen anything yet on this guy.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Only thing I can thing is some type of high straight draw? I can't tell, really.

[eviljeff]

I'd guess guess a combined draw. something like K/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[thesharpie]

Perhaps he made an expert laydown with bottom set.

[Student Caine]

Playing Stars 2/4 I think that a flush draw is most likely. He could also have a flush draw with a gutshot straight draw - something like 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif?

He could also have something like K/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif which gives him a flush draw, gutshot, and middle pair. I think that this is less likely however as I would expect him to call the last river bet with even middle pair (ignoring the 6's).

[Petteri]

I would suggest QJ, JT or KJ. JT or KJ of spades would suit the action best. 87 of spades is also possible.

[Student Caine]

[ QUOTE ]
I would suggest QJ, JT or KJ. JT or KJ of spades would suit the action best. 87 of spades is also possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know I didn't consider JT to be a possibility, but only because I don't see many people on stars 2/4 dropping two pair in this situation (no matter what the board looks like). But I guess he could have bottom two and when he gets raise on the turn he puts you on a bigger two pair or the straight. I guess that without a read on the guy it is tough to think about what he is capable of dropping.

Good post, thanks for getting me to think this early in the AM. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Petteri]

Pairing on the board clearly counterfaits his two pair if he has JT. After turn 3-bet and pairing of the board river call is waste of money.

In this kind of action 3-bettor has more than 95 % of time at least top pair.

[Student Caine]

[ QUOTE ]
Pairing on the board clearly counterfaits his two pair if he has JT. After turn 3-bet and pairing of the board river call is waste of money.

In this kind of action 3-bettor has more than 95 % of time at least top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeesh - I was trying to think of a way to not look like a fool here, but realistically I did not even think about the 6's counterfeiting his JT (it's early here /images/graemlins/tongue.gif). I agree that JT could definitely be one of his holdings.

Let me ask this, because it is why I did not consider JT on the flop - how often do you think he holds JT but does not play back at you on the flop?

[MyTurn2Raise]

2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[soweak.]

without reading first impressions, my guess is he has AXs. I dont try to generalize but a lot of limpers in EP usually have this type of hand or a small-mid PP. Usually, that is my default read of an unknown, and it usually serves me pretty accurate.

My guess is that, like most people, he thinks a turn check-raise will get you to slow down any hand here, and he may think that he has the best hand. My guess is he has A9s-A7s, and A5s-A2s

[Petteri]

Turn (check-)raise is one of the powerful weapons in poker. Heads up many players wait until turn before they play back with two pair.

Most players bet of check-raise flop with two pair but waiting until turn is not out of ordinary.