QQ BB against pfrer

[thesharpie]

No read on villain except this is the first hand he's played since he sat down 2 orbits ago.

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">8 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks

[ncboiler]

Looks like you are beat and getting turn odds of 6.25:1. Without a read I fold this.

[bigalt]

if this guy is playing with a standard EP raising range the only hands you're beating here are AQ, AJ, and JJ. MAYbe 88 if he's cheeky.

Not looking promising.

[thesharpie]

I don't beat 88. And AQ/AJ are fairly likely against a normal person since he didn't cap preflop, although I don't know if he bets the turn. He also looks like a rock which means he might not try a fancy play like this. I did pick up the gutshot draw though and I think I can make 1 more bet off him if I hit.

[bigalt]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't beat 88. And AQ/AJ are fairly likely against a normal person since he didn't cap preflop, although I don't know if he bets the turn. He also looks like a rock which means he might not try a fancy play like this. I did pick up the gutshot draw though and I think I can make 1 more bet off him if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

OOPS. my bad.

Unfortunately if he's got either AQ or AJ, then you're ahead right now but hitting any of your outs is going to cost you extra money.

It's a little too early for me to plug and chug the numbers but my gut tells me that a turn call is not profitable if there's a significant chance that you're behind.

Using circular logic, if you think the chance is high enough that he has AQ/AJ to make a turn call good, then you also have to call the river.

[thesharpie]

I was planning on folding the river. You don't think AQ or AJ would give up on the river? He's not an idiot and he knows I'm not folding for 1 more bet when I've come this far (even though I was going to).

The turn call may be bad, especially since he looks like a rock, but I don't think we have to call a river bet if we do call the turn.

Edit: You mention if he has AQ/AJ hitting one of my outs costs me money, while that might be true, since he's the one drawing and I hold a few outs he think he has I'm in good shape.

I think a call on the turn is only correct if you think that there is good enough of a chance that you are ahead to call a river bet as well.

[thesharpie]

Why is that? Is it because we're good 1 time in 8 on the river so we have to call? Since I didn't plan on calling a river bet I'm not getting 3.5:1 effective odds, I'm getting 6-1 (plus ~1BB implied) with about 5 outs if behind and a slim chance of having the best hand that I feel gets to see a showdown most of the time if that's the case.

I forgot to mention that when he raised on the flop I took a good 15 or so seconds before making a decision, and a hand like AQ that might've took the free card might fire again on the turn since a long pause followed by a call usually indicates weakness, so I felt more compelled to call.

I guess this is how I approach this situations, though I don't know if it's the best way. I'm thinking that the pot is not giving you enough odds to draw to a better hand. So I think it comes down to how often do you think you're behind. If it's like 100% I think you have to fold. Depending on your read of the opponent, it might be like 75% and a call is only profitable if you combine your 25% of winning unimproved with you chance of winning if you do improve. I guess I'm assuming that the villian is aggressive enough that he is betting the river again with the hands that you beat.