AA - turn play?

[arch12]

Hey guys,

This hand had me kinda preplexed. What is the best line on the turn? Feel free to comment on the flop as well.

Here's the stats:
Villain is a TAG but seems passive preflop: 12/5.6/3 (400 or so hands)
BB is ultra loose: 76/5/1.2 (40 hands)


Party Poker (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="red">Hero raises,</font> <font color="blue">Villain 3-bets, </font><font color="#666666"> 6 folds,</font> <font color="green"> BB caps</font> .

Flop: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB bets, <font color="red">Hero raises,</font><font color="blue"> Villain 3-bets,</font> BB calls, <font color="green">Hero caps</font>

Turn: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...?

[James282]

Bet and call a raise. Too likely for you to be free-rolling the other AA at this point to let it get checked through. You can probably check-fold the river against an opponent like this if you do not improve, however.
-James

[Petteri]

Really interesting situation.

Let's think what kind of hand Villain has. He seems to be at decent player. Cause his PFR is only 5.6, he will probably 3-bet flop against EPR only with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AK and possibly TT.

Considering flop action Villain does not have JJ, TT, AKs or AK because 3-betting those hands against pre-flop raiser and capper is -EV play even though capper was donkish. I think Villain has AA, KK or QQ. So you are probably behind and have 9 outs(7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif gives villain full house).

BB:s hand range is harder to consider. He probably also has hand, but hand range is much wider. He could have any playable hand, but probably has at least pair of queens in flop. Set is also one possibility, but since he only called 3-bet flop that is not likely. Flush is not too likely because there is not many high diamonds left.

Anyhow JTs, TSs 98s of diamonds are possible hands. Even though BB is donk I do no think he would cap pre-flop with 86 so OESD is not likely. I think he probably has AQ or KQ. KK, JJ or TT are also possible hands.

Now back to the game. Pot is 12 BB and you want to see river cheap. If you bet you most probably get raised by villain that could throw BB out if he does not have hand. BB folding does not help you lot. If you make your hand you most probably win and if you do not improve you lose. So "fold equity" is really low.

I would like check-calling turn even though you can get sandwiched between villain and BB if they both have hands.