PDA

View Full Version : call all-in with A9o on the bubble?

Che
08-28-2005, 03:28 AM
Party $55 SNG, Blinds 150/300, 4-handed

UTG (2955) folds, Button (1560) folds, SB (2790) pushes.

I have A9o and 2695 in the BB.

SB folded the SB to me a couple of orbits ago. Doesn't seem to be overly LAG or overly tight. First time playing with him, though, so not really sure.

Table is playing normal bubble poker, i.e. open-raiser is taking every pot. Several orbits have gone by since 5th busted out (which was the last showdown).

Call or fold?

Thanks,
Che
Degen
08-28-2005, 03:57 AM
easy easy fold bro
bmxreed36
08-28-2005, 04:02 AM
There's actually no range he can have here that makes this +$EV.
Degen
08-28-2005, 04:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
There's actually no range he can have here that makes this +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd have a hard time calling w/ AK in this spot, and i'm most definately folding AQ.

TT and i wince and maybe fold, 99 is an auto muck
IHateKeithSmart
08-28-2005, 04:36 AM
Can someone explain how to use sng analyzer to figure out these sorts of things (or point me in the right direction)? I am just getting started with it, understand the push calculations but not calling.
bmxreed36
08-28-2005, 05:01 AM
In the upper right corner, change raise to call. You can then set what position you are in and what position the all-in is coming from.
IHateKeithSmart
08-28-2005, 05:15 AM
Jesus, that's me, the computer expert. Thanks bmx.
curtains
08-28-2005, 06:01 AM
easy fold, like everyone else said.
Bill Poker
08-28-2005, 03:00 PM
AK should be a call. even his SB's very tight range (AT+/KQ/77+):
fold: 2400
call:
# WIN% WIN CHIPS
AA 3 0.074 1198.8
AK 9 0.5 24300
AQ 12 0.73 47304
AJ 12 0.73 47304
AT 12 0.73 47304
KK 3 0.3 4860
QQ 6 0.44 14256
JJ 6 0.44 14256
TT 6 0.44 14256
99 6 0.44 14256
88 6 0.44 14256
77 6 0.44 14256
KQ 9 0.73 35478
96 293284.8
3055.05

by calling, you would have ~3000 chips.

AQ: 2400 vs 2727
TT: 2400 vs 2931
Gramps
08-28-2005, 03:42 PM
If he didn't look at his cards, you'll win like 60% of the time. Seeing that he folded last time in this spot, he's probably pushing based on his cards, and you may be 50% or so at best vs. his pushing range. So...what most everyone else said...
Che
08-28-2005, 11:20 PM
I called and lost to 44.

I'm obviously getting a little rusty on my HU call percentages (I thought I was about 50% against his range, not 41% as I now estimate), so I'll have to start using my old cheat sheet again.

Thanks to all who replied,
Che
bruin
08-28-2005, 11:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i'd have a hard time calling w/ AK in this spot, and i'm most definately folding AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't fathom how AK is not +EV in this situation.
Scuba Chuck
08-28-2005, 11:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd have a hard time calling w/ AK in this spot, and i'm most definately folding AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't fathom how AK is not +EV in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you make one minor adjustment to the players stacks, it could be.
TheBlueMonster
08-29-2005, 12:04 AM
fold
splashpot
08-29-2005, 12:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
(I thought I was about 50% against his range, not 41% as I now estimate)

[/ QUOTE ]

You definately don't want to be calling here even if it was 50%.
eastbay
08-29-2005, 01:18 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I thought I was about 50% against his range

[/ QUOTE ]

This comment indicates you have a lot of thinking to do about proper bubble play.

eastbay
Mr_J
08-29-2005, 01:48 AM
When you call on the bubble with a coinflip, all you do is hurt both of us.
Xhad
08-29-2005, 02:00 AM
So...you've demonstrated that a call with AK would be +cEV, but I see no demonstration that it would be +$EV. It's possible that a call can gain you chips on average and still be wrong.
Che
08-29-2005, 10:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
This comment indicates you have a lot of thinking to do about proper bubble play.

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

While I lost money on the hand in question, I'll be more profitable in the long term thanks to the re-thinking that it forced me to do. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Didn't take much work with the ICM calculator to realize how big a leak I have had over the last few months.

Thanks again to all who replied,
Che
Bill Poker
08-29-2005, 03:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
So...you've demonstrated that a call with AK would be +cEV, but I see no demonstration that it would be +$EV. It's possible that a call can gain you chips on average and still be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems you are right, it is -$EV to call with even AK:
fold: 0.2488
call: 0.2256

interesting......
Bill Poker
08-29-2005, 04:38 PM
against a tight SB (AT+/KQ/77+), even calling with JJ is -$EV (0.24488 vs 0.2342). QQ is +$EV (0.2448 vs 0.2661).

if SB is looser, said, A7+/QJ+/44+, JJ would be +$EV (0.2488 vs 0.2621). AK is still marginally -$EV (0.2488 vs 0.2436). kind of counter-intuitive, I usually call with AK all the time. maybe it would be +$EV if the pusher's range is much wider than this ......

degen seems right/