Common ring game variance

[Percussion]

lets say a normal winning player (or even a professional) had a bad run of cards.

How long can this last?

3,000 hands?
5,000 hands?
10,000 hands?
G A S P 20,000 hands?!

[Acehawk74]

according to what I've read, bad runs can last upwards of 10-20k hands. I'm not that experienced, but from other posts on the forums, I have seen plenty of people say they have run breakeven or losses for 10k+ hands.

[Niediam]

It depends what game you are playing and what form (no limit, limit, etc) it is but 20k+ hand losing streaks are far from uncommon.

[benkahuna]

You should read Gambling Theory and Other Topics by Mason Malmuth. It covers this exact topic. For a full time player in a limit game, one can take 2 years of near ideal play to be even. That's the worst it can possibly get from a mathematical perspective. That's in a B&M. One the net multitabling, it could be a much shorter time duration.

[fisherman112]

this also depends greatly on your winrate at the given game, your playing style (more hands=greater variance)and your idea of having a bad run of cards.

obviously a 20k stretch where a 1.5bb/100 earning 30/60 LHE player earns only .2bb/100 could be considered running bad too.

[Python49]

i just finished a 10k hand run of break even poker with many ups and downs.... i popped my cherry.

[BigDonkey]

over my last 10k hands, im down 200+ BB. this is my first downswing over 100BB, and boy it's a doozy. Hopefully it comes back soon. I'm not sure i could make it to 20k. ouch! /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Jorge10]

[ QUOTE ]
this also depends greatly on your winrate at the given game, your playing style (more hands=greater variance)and your idea of having a bad run of cards.

obviously a 20k stretch where a 1.5bb/100 earning 30/60 LHE player earns only .2bb/100 could be considered running bad too.

[/ QUOTE ]


20k hands is too much, I was on a downswing for 2 weeks, but that was 10k hands, if you are on a 20k hand downsing you need to move down, I mean its not a downswing anymore, 10k in my opinion is a huge amount of hands. Its weeks in real life, people seem to lose perspective at times. 10k hands is about 2 weeks in real life and thats assuming you play 8 hours a day 5 days a week, thats not exactly a short amount of time you know.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this also depends greatly on your winrate at the given game, your playing style (more hands=greater variance)and your idea of having a bad run of cards.

obviously a 20k stretch where a 1.5bb/100 earning 30/60 LHE player earns only .2bb/100 could be considered running bad too.

[/ QUOTE ]


20k hands is too much, I was on a downswing for 2 weeks, but that was 10k hands, if you are on a 20k hand downsing you need to move down, I mean its not a downswing anymore, 10k in my opinion is a huge amount of hands. Its weeks in real life, people seem to lose perspective at times. 10k hands is about 2 weeks in real life and thats assuming you play 8 hours a day 5 days a week, thats not exactly a short amount of time you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. 20k hands is not even close to unreasonable for a downswing. It can last much longer.

[subzero]

Even professionals can have a year long downswing.

How many hands would it take to be able to determine if you are a winning player at certain stakes?

I'm at 2.5BB/100 over 5k hands. I know that 5k is not enough but what would be? 20k, 50k, 100k?

[subzero]

Not sure if there's a specific number of hands you should wait for. I'd say more than 10K, but you might feel like you can comfortably beat the game with less hands played. Check out the question about winrates at the SSNL FAQ here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3268411&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1).

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
lets say a normal winning player (or even a professional) had a bad run of cards.

How long can this last?

3,000 hands?
5,000 hands?
10,000 hands?
G A S P 20,000 hands?!

[/ QUOTE ]

Check out Sept.'s magazine article on variance.