Party 200, getting my 130BB into a 7BB pot oop.

[ethan]

Hi all. Haven't done much posting here, but I'm moving back to NL ring play so I'll be trying to do more. I played this one a couple days ago and I'm curious for input on a line.

Converter seems not to like this hand, so I'll just type it out. My opponent here's been at the table maybe 20 hands, during which time he's 35/20/2 or so. His chips come from the first hand he played after sitting down - an LP player raised, he reraised from the blinds, and bet-3-bet pushed a low rag flop. His first bet on that flop was around 1/2pot. He's made it to showdown 0 times so far, and overall hasn't done anything that looked too strange. I've been reasonably quiet since he sat down, and overall the table hasn't been notably tight/loose/passive/aggressive. Standard semi-rocky 200NL.

10-handed Party 200, with the relevant stacks:
Him (UTG+1) $300
Me (SB) $270

UTG+1 raises to $6, folded around to me in the SB and I call with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif. BB folds, so pot's $14 and we're heads up to the flop of J /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif giving me the double-gutshot and the flush draw. The two overcards are nice, but they're not looking too good unless I get a lot of action. The aces help me vs KK/QQ, and J9 (especially /images/graemlins/spade.gif) will probably get frisky on this flop too.

I think better things will happen if I bet out on the flop. If I check-call I don't get paid off when I hit, and if I check-raise I don't particularly want to be 3-bet. (If I do get 3-bet I can push without it being a huge overbet, but I think the hands that 3-bet me have me at a disadvantage. I also think most of them call a push. My thinking may be wrong here, since I take down a pretty big pot when I'm not called, but if I am it means I may be in a semi-tough spot on the turn.) So, I bet $10, and he raises to $25. It's $15 to me to call, which'll make the pot $64 with effective stacks of $240 behind.

Unless I waaaay overbet here, I figure I need turn plans for
a) K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
b) 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
c) 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
d) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif
e) 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

The K/J/9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif are interesting cards too.

How am I doing so far? If you just call your flop what's your plan for the turn/river?

[ethan]

Some thoughts:
I have a huge amount of equity in this pot, and the money's deep enough I may be able to get a bunch of it in and force him to make an incorrect fold. Some flop aggression may also lower the chance in his mind I have a draw while still leaving a lot behind, meaning I have a better chance to stack him if I hit on the turn. I figure the K outs won't scare him off much, the 9 outs probably will unless he has QQ and wants me to freeroll him (or has KQ and pwns me). If I turn a spade after some flop aggression I'll probably get paid off, but I want to have enough money to see the river if I miss the turn.

If he has nothing and I bet, he probably folds. Not the end of the world, since if I check-call/raise the flop I don't get much more out of him anyways. So, now let's assume he has something from AA-88, KQ, JT, and the pair+gutshot/oesd hands (AJ, QJ, J9, 98 etc). Given how he played his first hand at the table I'm guessing he's not the sort to default to a pot raise with a strong hand. This might not be correct since that was a particularly non-scary flop, but I went with it. But if I bet and he has something good, I think he'll raise.

There aren't any noticeably larger stacks at the table, so I'm more concerned by the immediate EV of this hand than by any future EV a big stack might get me. But if some laggy fish was sitting to my right with 300BB and that'd change your thoughts on the hand, I'd appreciate input on that too.

Some pokerstove for the flop:
vs AA/KK, I'm 55%
vs QQ, 59%
vs J9/T9/89, 57%
vs QJ, 57%
vs 99, 45%
vs JT, 50% (J8/T8 are unlikely)
vs 9s7s, 41%
vs JJ/TT/88, 40%

And if by some miracle I get all in against KQ, I have 81% equity and a victory lap to run. Likewise for 67/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[fimbulwinter]

bet threebet works goot.

fim

EDIT: good posts. post here more often.

[SlyAK]

I like a 3-bet to around $75-80 here, should put the pressure on him. And I obviously call a push.

Sly

[SlyAK]

Fim,

What's your plan if you 3-bet and a complete rag falls on the turn? I like 3-betting here too, but I think these stack-sizes are slightly awkward and can make for a difficult turn.

Sly

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
bet threebet works goot.

[/ QUOTE ]
It certainly does. Were the pot 20BB to start, or if I only had 80BB behind I don't think I'd have considered anything else.

I'm not sure he'll raise me if I lead pot. This guy's shown some aggression, but only with what was very likely a non-vulnerable clearly-best hand. I also haven't spent all that much time playing full-ring 200NL, but it's pretty tight-passive. I bet 2/3 pot hoping to get raised (I prefer getting raised to flat-called here*), and he obliges by raising...1/3pot or so. I have $255 when he raises - if I push and get called let's say I have 45% equity, which comes out to around $240-245. If I push and he folds, I end up at $300.

$300's pretty good, and showing down this hand (even if I lose) will get me action when I bet-3bet my sets vs anyone who was paying attention. But I'm wondering if I get more out of him by just calling here. If not, then how about with 200BB behind? Somewhere between 30-40% of the deck puts me ahead on the the turn, and his flop raise gives me pot odds without any implied odds to draw to the low end of that.

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: good posts. post here more often.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you. Much appreciated, particularly given what you've contributed to this forum. I'm glad to see from MHNL that you're moving up and doing well.

*Getting raised on this flop is better than getting flat-called because I want him to think he's still in control of the hand. If he just calls then I'm left in an awkward position on a blank turn - betting and getting raised sucks because he may not give me implied odds (although I can and might push), and betting and getting called isn't great either. Check-calling 2/3-to-full pot after betting the flop isn't great either, although I'm not sure he'd bet so much. A check-raise push is worth considering, but I think that if he bets enough to make my push less than a substantial overbet he's doing it with a hand that'll call and have me drawing to 14 outs (set or 2pr with J). A smaller check-raise will likely be bad - he may be able to destroy my odds when I have somewhere between 15 and 18 outs, and if not I'm stuck calling all-in which I don't enjoy. But, if I bet-call the flop...

...if I hit the turn, there's a very good chance I get in with by far the best of it. He has the initiative and a hand he wants to protect, and bet-calling the flop can be a great many non-flush-draw hands. I'm not willing to give him credit for competent pot-control, so a check-raise is an option. Ideally I get to bet-3bet a non-spade K.

Oh - and if I hit the turn and whiff the check-raise, I want to check-raise a blankish river. If I bet out he's not calling without an overpair/set, and he'll bet those for value if I check to him.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
Fim,

What's your plan if you 3-bet and a complete rag falls on the turn? I like 3-betting here too, but I think these stack-sizes are slightly awkward and can make for a difficult turn.

Sly

[/ QUOTE ]

i don;t think i've ever bet/threebet and had it not be all-in.

fim

[ethan]

I said something in my original post that doesn't reflect what I meant to say, and it's too late to edit:
original
[ QUOTE ]
(If I do get 3-bet I can push without it being a huge overbet, but I think the hands that 3-bet me have me at a disadvantage. I also think most of them call a push. My thinking may be wrong here, since I take down a pretty big pot when I'm not called, but if I am it means I may be in a semi-tough spot on the turn.)

[/ QUOTE ]

fixed:
[ QUOTE ]

(If I do get 3-bet I can push without it being a huge overbet, but I think the hands that 3-bet me have me at a disadvantage. I also think most of them call a push. My thinking may be wrong here, since I take down a pretty big pot when the original check-raise isn't called, but if I am it means I may be in a semi-tough spot on the turn.)

[/ QUOTE ]

And really...I shouldn't have said "pretty big pot", since I think this hand often enough ends up with me stacking him.

[fimbulwinter]

going to bed now. hopefully sly will give you a better response. here's one part of it

260(.45)-127 = 10BB

so if we open shove this flop and get called by AA every time the play costs 20 bucks long term.

fim

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
i don;t think i've ever bet/threebet and had it not be all-in.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to bet-3bet this flop, then raising the pot is making it $90. At that point you'd have $170 behind and $190 in the pot if your opponent just called (although who knows what he'd need to do that.) If I'm bet-3-betting, I think I'm short enough to make that 3-bet a push. I'd love to be able to bet pot and get raised pot on this flop...that makes this easier. I bet $14, get raised to $48, and pushing my last $200 is a 2x pot raise. I just don't think this opponent likes betting big - I'm working with a small sample size, but almost no one else at 200NL likes raising pot either.

[SlyAK]

[ QUOTE ]

If you're going to bet-3bet this flop, then raising the pot is making it $90. At that point you'd have $170 behind and $190 in the pot if your opponent just called (although who knows what he'd need to do that.) If I'm bet-3-betting, I think I'm short enough to make that 3-bet a push. I'd love to be able to bet pot and get raised pot on this flop...that makes this easier. I bet $14, get raised to $48, and pushing my last $200 is a 2x pot raise. I just don't think this opponent likes betting big - I'm working with a small sample size, but almost no one else at 200NL likes raising pot either.

[/ QUOTE ]


Even better is overbetting a little bit, say $18, then if he raises the pot he makes it $60ish and then pushing.... I think I like leading for slightly over the pot now that I think about the hand more. That just makes the 3-bet all-in not AS much of an overbet.

Sly

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
260(.45)-127 = 10BB

so if we open shove this flop and get called by AA every time the play costs 20 bucks long term.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

This part at least I realize. I semibluff plenty, and it's great when everyone else folds. But at some point it has to become more profitable to wait until a later street to get the money in, right? Either that or your opponents are folding too much and you should bluff every scare card you can. (Again...right?) At some point your flop semibluff must be a big enough multiple of the pot that your equity versus the calling hands isn't enough to make the play even +EV, although we're a long way from this point in the posted hand. With the hand under consideration I think we're only talking about what's most +EV since something _clearly_ is, and if we accept that bet-3bet becomes -EV at some stack size I'm curious when/what other lines come into play. I'm certainly willing to accept that bet-3bet is the best line here - it's what I did, but it felt a little odd given stack/pot ratio and I started thinking about when it wouldn't be good.

How many BB do you need behind to flat-call the flop raise? Or is there always a play you prefer to a call on this flop?

[wtfsvi]

You post good.

I'm with calling the flop raise here. A crucial point is that you say you don't give him credit for competent pot control. If raising the flop with the intention of checking behind on the turn is probably an unknown concept to him, I'm flat calling this. Both because it increases my implied odds and because it makes it less likely that a (small) raise like this represents a marginal holding that he will happilly drop to a 3-bet.

Another benefit to calling is that the bets/raises you have seen from him are small, so he's likely to give you good odds to draw on the turn.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Another benefit to calling is that the bets/raises you have seen from him are small, so he's likely to give you good odds to draw on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup. I ended up pushing the flop and he folded, but it didn't feel right overbetting that much. I like this hand a lot as an exercise in pot control (or lack thereof).

Thanks for the input guys.

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
going to bed now. hopefully sly will give you a better response. here's one part of it

260(.45)-127 = 10BB

so if we open shove this flop and get called by AA every time the play costs 20 bucks long term.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

There's something about the term "open-shove" that's more aesthetically satisfying than "open-push."

In short, I want to bet - push this flop because I'm a frickin' baby who doesn't want to plan the turn and river.

I like your plan of two check-raise attempts if you hit on the turn, but I have no idea whatsoever for a blank turn card.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
In short, I want to bet - push this flop because I'm a frickin' baby who doesn't want to plan the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nooooo. Easy answers are boring /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The interesting part of this hand, IMO, is that as we increase stack size then somewhere along the line the bet-3bet is actually -EV. (I don't know where that happens, but just to prove a point - say we have 1,000,000BB and 40% equity when a bet-3bet is called. It's going to be called often enough to make it very -EV.) Now clearly we're nowhere near the point where it's actually -EV, but I'm just wondering if there are lines that're more +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
I like your plan of two check-raise attempts if you hit on the turn, but I have no idea whatsoever for a blank turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'm going to get pushed off my hand on the turn. I do run into interesting questions if I bet-call the flop, the turn gets checked through, and I river an ace or queen. And yea, I like the two-check-raise attempt idea too. I don't often try it because it makes me nervous, but I think there's something to it.