Good TT hand to discuss

[Megenoita]

Flop action and turn action debatable. This is a loose-passive table with 4-6 per flop. Button is loose-passive preflop and aggressive post flop--he'll bet any 2 if checked to on any street. All others in the hand are LP-P. I just took a big pot off the button and I have been raising a lot at this table.

Party 2/4 (10 handed)
Hero is BB with T /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, all call.

Flop (5 handed, 10 SB): 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks, Hero checks...

Well?

M

[clownshoes]

No, bet.

[Megenoita]

What does betting out accomplish, and is there any other possible way to maximize expectation here?

M

[PokerFox]

What does betting out accomplish???

It shows you the strength of your hand, the entire point of betting out.

If they raise you, you are most likely beat.

If they call, they have a low kicker with a J or are on some type of straight draw.

If they fold, you win.

[Megenoita]

True, that if I bet out and am raised, I am most likely beaten by at least a J. And if I'm just called, I'm probably ahead. But right now, I see a big pot developing-already 10 SBs. My concern is not so much IDing my hand, but maximizing my expectation. In other words, I want to try to find a way to win this pot. Betting out simply does not accomplish that. A passive J could raise or just call down. The other passive players will likely call my flop bet and probably my turn bet with hands such as KT, Q8, T7, Ax, as well as Kx and Qx. That leaves more than a third of the deck that can beat me on the turn or river.

What I decided to do was check and hope that the BTN would bet when checked to. Then I could raise and isolate him, getting rid of the above stated hands. I thought there was a good chance that it would be checked to him as only a decent J or better would bet before him. Even then, he might raise and allow me to 3-bet and still isolate him.

It was checked to him on the BTN, he bet, SB called, I raised, everyone else folded, he called, SB called. I went on to win the pot against his pair of 9's.

My point in this thread is not that betting out is wrong. It was my gut reaction to bet right away. It's like an insta-bet for me most of the time. But in this case, at this table, on this hand, I thought a c/r would do better to increase my winning chances.

It still may be better to bet into this field, but I thought at least the thought process I had would be interesting to consider.

M

[clownshoes]

You dont seem to realize that so many bad things can happen when you check. You have no idea who is going to bet if anyone bets at all. If it gets checked around that would be ridiculously awful.

Betting out can cause people to fold, hopefully lone overcards, maybe a smaller pair, it doesnt matter as long as they fold. Yeah you might get raised and yeah people are probably going to call but that's ok too because you still have outs to improve.

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
True, that if I bet out and am raised, I am most likely beaten by at least a J. And if I'm just called, I'm probably ahead. But right now, I see a big pot developing-already 10 SBs. My concern is not so much IDing my hand, but maximizing my expectation. In other words, I want to try to find a way to win this pot. Betting out simply does not accomplish that. A passive J could raise or just call down. The other passive players will likely call my flop bet and probably my turn bet with hands such as KT, Q8, T7, Ax, as well as Kx and Qx. That leaves more than a third of the deck that can beat me on the turn or river.

What I decided to do was check and hope that the BTN would bet when checked to. Then I could raise and isolate him, getting rid of the above stated hands. I thought there was a good chance that it would be checked to him as only a decent J or better would bet before him. Even then, he might raise and allow me to 3-bet and still isolate him.

It was checked to him on the BTN, he bet, SB called, I raised, everyone else folded, he called, SB called. I went on to win the pot against his pair of 9's.

My point in this thread is not that betting out is wrong. It was my gut reaction to bet right away. It's like an insta-bet for me most of the time. But in this case, at this table, on this hand, I thought a c/r would do better to increase my winning chances.

It still may be better to bet into this field, but I thought at least the thought process I had would be interesting to consider.

M

[/ QUOTE ]

I like adjustments like this. Good poker, sir.

You really aren't getting ANY information out of the LPP's anyway (if you lead).

[PokerFox]

I can concede that in this case, against this table, perhaps c/r was the right move,

but if you consider the long run (Which we all should), I think overtime you win a LOT of bets by betting out here.

Cheers,
fox

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
You dont seem to realize that so many bad things can happen when you check. You have no idea who is going to bet if anyone bets at all. If it gets checked around that would be ridiculously awful.

Betting out can cause people to fold, hopefully lone overcards, maybe a smaller pair, it doesnt matter as long as they fold. Yeah you might get raised and yeah people are probably going to call but that's ok too because you still have outs to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Our read is that it will not get checked around.

2. It's probably safe to fold to an open-bet from two LPP's (given that we raised PF)

3. Check-raising BTN now is probably the only chance we have at protecting our hand against the 2 LPPs.

[stokken]

With the read provided the c/r is best IMO.
The long run should be thought of in the same line, the long run for this kind a tablesetting suggest c/r as most profitable. Whereas for a different table a bet might be most profitable. I like the line taken /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]

Our read is that it will not get checked around

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because the Button will open-bet many flops with position doesn't mean he will do this against a pre-flop raiser from the blinds who then checks the flop.

[Redd]

In my opinion, this play is as good as your read on the button.

[Megenoita]

Jus to be clear, this play was made with complete (100%) certainty that the BTN will bet if checked to. Several hands in a row, many with no pair, no piece, he bets when checked to on EVERY street, always. He doesn't raise much, but never checks. Another strong read I had was that the passive players involved weren't betting pieces but only strong holds, so that helped. If I felt it could get checked through I'm definitely betting.

The real question is whether in the long run receiving extra bets from the 2 loose passive players I cleared will be more profitable than getting rid of them on the flop. I tend to go for the quicker kill, and I think in this hand, my hand is good now but vulnerable enough to rid myself of them for better long term profitability.

M

I think that you have to bet here to see where you are at. The flop only has one overcard. If you're up against JJ, you can call knowing that you have to catch a 10 on the turn to continue. If you get a flat call, you may be up against a straight draw. If you check, you will be hard prssed to guess the strength of your opponent's hand.

[Megenoita]

Again, betting out doesn't necessarily tell me where I'm at. A pair of J's in the hands of one of the two LP players after me will probably just call down, as they have seen me raise a lot with a good run of cards and would fear AJ, AA-QQ. They will also just call with OESD, small piece, overcard and gutshot, 2 overs, pp, etc. When I c/r:

1. I get to see if one of them bets, which if it occurred means a J or better and I can actually lay down.

2. If checked to the lag who bets, I can raise, protecting my vulnerable hand.

3. If one of the passive players (or both) cc the c/r, I know they have either OESD or J or better, thus reducing their hand range possibility.

I am in a situation where betting out has me in a RIO situation, as I have terrible position. I have plenty of equity in terrible position. Betting out isn't bad; in fact, it's my standard play as well as probably everyone here. I'm just wondering if c/r this particular lag would improve my long term equity.

[TemetNosce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our read is that it will not get checked around

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because the Button will open-bet many flops with position doesn't mean he will do this against a pre-flop raiser from the blinds who then checks the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

And for this reason, you must bet the flop.

If the button is aggressive, he may raise you and you get to 3-bet him. This will protect your hand as well as a check-raise, but without the risk of this getting checked through. That would be a catastrophe with all the overcards which could hit on the turn.

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our read is that it will not get checked around

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because the Button will open-bet many flops with position doesn't mean he will do this against a pre-flop raiser from the blinds who then checks the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

And for this reason, you must bet the flop.

If the button is aggressive, he may raise you and you get to 3-bet him. This will protect your hand as well as a check-raise, but without the risk of this getting checked through. That would be a catastrophe with all the overcards which could hit on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Button is loose-passive preflop and aggressive post flop--he'll bet any 2 if checked to on any street.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP's read is that this would be an anomaly. I'm in the business of responding based on OP's provided information.

Standard play is to bet here w/o reads and against non-LAGs that don't bet every street when checked to.

IMO not making adjustments like this will cost us in the long run. If someone can show how leading this flop against this field protects our hand better than OP's line, by all means, do so.

[TemetNosce]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the business of responding based on OP's provided information.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's nice. I'm happy for you. Save your scolding for your kids and/or pets. I'm not interested in hearing it.