Luck vs. suck, objectively?

For those that play a lot of SNG's, how do you judge bad luck vs. poor skill? 9 tournies in a row now I've gone out, each time I had the better hand (60/40 or better).

Now, I know given enough 60/40 coin flips I'll lose anyway, but is putting myself in those positions the right thing to do? Typically we're down to 5-6 people, I'm at 500-700 chips with blinds at 100/50. Seems like I have to make my oves at that point. Yes? No?

This isn't a bad beat post. I'm serious, am I pushing to soon, or should I be really happy to get 60/40 odds at this point.

I've totally lost confidence in any ability to place. I'm 1 for my last 12. Granted, I'm relatively new at SNG's, but this would be a lot easier to figure out what to do next if I was constantly behind rather than ahead. Since I'm going out ahead I'm at a loss for what to do to put myself in a better position.

Should I be pushing even earlier to avoid this semi-short stack problem? I've been following the SNG primer on one of the links, which basically advocates limping a few hands and raising very few the first 3 rounds. /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Myst]

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This is a bad beat post.

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FYP. Seriously. 8 or 9 situations of 60/40 is nothing. 1 out of 12 OOTM is nothing.

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This is a bad beat post.

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FYP. Seriously. 8 or 9 situations of 60/40 is nothing. 1 out of 12 OOTM is nothing.

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Well, that in and of itself is useful to hear. I'm not familiar with the variance in 1 table SNG's.

[citanul]

sit down with a pencil, and write some things out for yourself:

you might want to figure the odds of say, losing:

5 60/40s in a row
5 60/40s out of 10
9 60/40s out of 10
10 60/40s out of 10
70 60/40s out of 100

things like that, then you might want to do the same with 50/50s, or something like that.

note that 9 out of 10 mildly harder math than say, 9/9.

citanul