No-limit hold'em. You have T2000 and T7s

[rockoon]

There is no small blind. The big blind is T500.

You are on the button with T7s and everyone folds to you. The big blind has a commanding stack of T14000 and is certain to call a raise without even looking.

What would you do?

A) FOLD
B) CALL T500
C) RAISE ALL-IN FOR T2000

[pauly2x]

I think you answered your own question here. With the size of your raise ($1,500) and the size of the big stacks, you are probably going to be called unless his/her hand is absolutely putrid. Since there's no small blind and you're not invested in this pot, I can't really see too many reasons to move with T7s and pick a fight with the chip leader. Any overcard(s) puts you at a disadvantage. With blinds at 500 and on you the button, you will, most likely, have other opportunities to pick a better spot. T7s is not a premium, even good, hand, so why put your entire stack at risk with marginal cards when you know you'll be called?

[rockoon]

Well I am not so quick to decide that being all-in with this 50/50 shot is worse than the alternatives!

[Ed Miller]

Man, if you are guaranteed to be called, then you muck and move to the next hand. A call commits your whole stack at this point as much as a raise would. I'd wait for a hand with a little more showdown value than Ten-high.

[Guy McSucker]

As you rightly point out, T7s is a 50-50 proposition against a random hand (actually a tiny bit better than that). So, with the problem as stated, i.e. moving in will get you a call with a random hand, moving in has a tiny positive expectation. So it's close to neutral in the long term, i.e. it makes no difference whether you move in here or not.

With your tiny stack, you've got to double up or get up. Why not give this one a spin? I see no good reason not to do so.

People often say to wait since you might get AA next hand, or at any rate something better than T7s. On the other hand, if you double up now and get AA next hand, you stand to get back into contention.

It's an interesting question.

Guy.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Easy fold. As they say, a better opportunity is likely coming. You don't say exactly how many folded before it got to you, so I don't know how many hands are left before the blinds come. Also, you don't mention how aggressive the table has been, so I don't know how many of those free hands are likely to allow you to raise as the first one in.

However, I would guess that waiting for a hand that is better than this against the random blind hand is best.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[pauly2x]

to borrow a cliche here, but sometime discretion is the better part of valor. I would argue that protecting your stacks is more important than rolling the dice and hoping for a favorable flop.

[Moose]

.. nearly as much as you are rolling the dice that the BB has dick squat offsuit, preferably a weaker ten or 7 than you.

Since you are +EV against a random hand, if you are 100% certain he will call even with 32o, then assuming no prize considerations, stick 'em all in there.

C.

[rockoon]

"So, with the problem as stated, i.e. moving in will get you a call with a random hand, moving in has a tiny positive expectation. So it's close to neutral in the long term, i.e. it makes no difference whether you move in here or not. "

This is another jump I am not so quick to make! In regards to tournament chips your EV is neutral that is for sure but there are two considerations that this generalization totally ignores.

One is that your expectation is not linearly proportional to your tournament chips. Having more tournament chips is good but doubling your stack doesnt quite manage to double your expectation (I can show this to be true). In this sense, the situation isnt neutral at all its negative!

The other is that the alternative hasnt been considered yet. What is the expectation of folding? Folding can also be considered neutral.. but is it?

Is folding positive, neutral, or negative EV when you are almost out of time?

One can go to the extreme and ask if the player under the gun (before he has looked) has positive EV if he is also forced to pay the big blind next hand? (consider the total EV of both hands)

I think it is quite obvious that in such a case the small +EV of being under the gun doesnt make up for the big -EV of the big blind. So i'd dare say if you looked at both hands together as a single event then the guy is in -EV land.

I bring this up because I am not so sure that even sitting in the cutoff is +EV when you are almost out of time and cant defend a hand.

This example is good because it also puts a big stack right behind you which certainly effects your overall EV.

I dare say that its possible that EVERY option is negative EV to some degree.