Trouble with Black Snowmen

[MrWookie47]

This hand came out of a block of hands I asked gharp to review as I've been going through a downswing at 2/4 6 max. The particular block he looked at was especially rough on me, and tilt was starting to rear its ugly head. I think at this point, my A game may have disitigrated into my B or B+ game. I quit when I knew I had hit my C game, but I had already lost some Sklansky bucks. I'll refrain from showing you guys the 72o hand I played not too long after this. Ick. This hand, though, I'm not sure how I played it. Let me know what you think, and feel free to smack me around and say I suck at poker, especially if the correct play is obvious.

Oh, more bad news. My hard drive got corrupted a couple days ago, so I lost my notes on the villains in this hand. How would you play this with no reads, and against what breed of commonly encountered player would you do something differently?

Absolute Poker 2/4 6 max (6 handed).

UTG limps, MP folds, CO raises, I 3bet 8/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, CO calls.

Flop comes 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif. Checked to me. I bet. All call.

Turn is the 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked to me, and I check behind.

River is the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Checked to CO who bets. What do I do?

Feel free to tell me I'm losing my mind on any street, but I think the river is where gharp and I had the most issues.

[SavageMiser]

I fold in this protected pot. Unless CO is some meta-game genius, he can beat a middle pair.

[Deamon2]

I fold, but because I think someone behind me can beat my pair and will overcall with it. I don't want to raise, because there's a chance CO can beat me, I don't want overcalls because I will most likely lose, so I fold.

[Reqtech]

I like your pf effort to push out the blinds, and your flop bet.

I would have bet the turn to hopefully clear out some overcards for a free river showdown if paint fell.

[Guruman]

my humble opinion:

-preflop 3-bet-

It looks like you were trying to isolate CO there, but both blinds ended up coming along. Was this bad luck, a bad read, or did they just think you were FOS because you had been tilting some? Not a bad move in the right spot, but this didn't end up being it.

-flop bet-

you've probably got the best hand right now, and your OESD adds a ton of equity. I like the bet, and I three-bet a raise from the CO.

-turn free card-

Well you got your free card, but I'm not convinced that you're drawing here. You'd probably have heard from an overpair or something like A9s here by now. I'd bet for value against the likely overcards and FOSers.

-river-

What you have to consider here is the fact that the CO can't think that he'll bluff three people off of this hand on the river, least of all the one who's been aggressive througout the hand (you). It looks like a value bet, and the prospect of overcallers behind you further devalues your modest holding here.

Id say fold>raise>call

[clownshoes]

I really dont like the turn check. Theres a good chance they might fold some overcards, you probably still have the best hand and you have a good amount of outs if you dont (Id say around 9 since your 8 outs might be a little iffy)

[deception5]

The way this hand went down I would definitely call the river bet as your hand is underrepresented, looks like you have unimproved overs. So the real question is whether to raise or just call. I'm torn because I think you really might fold a 9 for 2 bets with this raise. If CO has you beaten he'll 3-bet or call. I think it's a profitable gamble because it doesn't have to work very often at all to be +EV in a pot this size.

[macdaddy991]

My line would be to bet the turn, fold to a check raise. If there were any callers, I would take a free showdown. It someone bet into me on the river, I would have a very tough decision.

[Rev. Good Will]

why no turn bet?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
My line would be to bet the turn, fold to a check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can fold the turn with an oesd where you have 2 of the 8's in this large pot.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My line would be to bet the turn, fold to a check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can fold the turn with an oesd where you have 2 of the 8's in this large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops missed that, especially now that you can catch a safe 8 for a boat. Still, though I would bet the turn.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
why no turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked the turn because I was now likely behind. I got called on the flop in 3 places, and if I wasn't behind 9x, I was likely behind 7x. I couldn't fold to a check/raise, so I opted to check with outs, 10 of them, but not all clean. With 10 outs, I don't have quite enough equity to bet for value in a 4 way pot. Is this too weak?

[theghost]

I think it's a good spot to take the free card.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why no turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked the turn because I was now likely behind. I got called on the flop in 3 places, and if I wasn't behind 9x, I was likely behind 7x. I couldn't fold to a check/raise, so I opted to check with outs, 10 of them, but not all clean. With 10 outs, I don't have quite enough equity to bet for value in a 4 way pot. Is this too weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. I have a weakness to push till someone pushes back, but that has bit me many times. I try to slow down when I think I am behind, but then I think it encourages players to take shots at me. I hope this gets elaborated further.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why no turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked the turn because I was now likely behind. I got called on the flop in 3 places, and if I wasn't behind 9x, I was likely behind 7x. I couldn't fold to a check/raise, so I opted to check with outs, 10 of them, but not all clean. With 10 outs, I don't have quite enough equity to bet for value in a 4 way pot. Is this too weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. I have a weakness to push till someone pushes back, but that has bit me many times. I try to slow down when I think I am behind, but then I think it encourages players to take shots at me. I hope this gets elaborated further.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think what others have mentioned (and what I'm writing here - more for my own benefit to see if it makes sense) is that any player who is "taking a shot" at you here probably has you beat. CO is very unlikely to bet any paint that missed since it's not HU, and any hand that hit has us beat. (With the exception of 6's and any PP 55-22. All are pretty unlikely.)

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why no turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked the turn because I was now likely behind. I got called on the flop in 3 places, and if I wasn't behind 9x, I was likely behind 7x. I couldn't fold to a check/raise, so I opted to check with outs, 10 of them, but not all clean. With 10 outs, I don't have quite enough equity to bet for value in a 4 way pot. Is this too weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that turn 7 helped you more than them IMO, I'd more likely expect your opponents to have UI overs right now than 9x or 7x, so I guess in a way you have more outs, "drawing" for 2's, 3's, and 4's as well

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why no turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked the turn because I was now likely behind. I got called on the flop in 3 places, and if I wasn't behind 9x, I was likely behind 7x. I couldn't fold to a check/raise, so I opted to check with outs, 10 of them, but not all clean. With 10 outs, I don't have quite enough equity to bet for value in a 4 way pot. Is this too weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a good time to check with outs. But one of the conditons of a play like this is that you need to call a reasonable river card on the very possible induced bluff, so I'm not folding.

I can see the merit in both calling and raising the river, but I think I'd go with a raise with two people behind me in a big pot.

[GTSamIAm]

If you'll call or bet the river, bet the turn. Bet an undercard river, call most bettors and most overcallers, fold to two bets.

[GTSamIAm]

You are probably behind, but if you're not, it's AWFUL to check and give a free card. Bet and call a check/raise because you have a straight draw, and weak boat outs.

[MrWookie47]

Sorry, I didn't include pot sizes in the post. At the river, the pot is about 8 BB, give or take some rake. CO's bet makes it 9. I think it's pretty safe to assume that if anyone cold calls my raise, I'm sunk to a likely J. Thus, if I win, I only stand to win one more bet with a raise. If I raise, do I win 1 time in 6? If I call, do I win one time in 10, plus the number of overcallers?

[@bsolute_luck]

bet the turn. call a c/r. fold the river UI. take the free showdown.

hmmm...i'd probably raise. CO could be betting UI overcards really here on a scare river, but i'd want to fold a weak 9 if possible. i think calling is the worst of the 3 options even if CO does have the J.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I didn't include pot sizes in the post. At the river, the pot is about 8 BB, give or take some rake. CO's bet makes it 9. I think it's pretty safe to assume that if anyone cold calls my raise, I'm sunk to a likely J. Thus, if I win, I only stand to win one more bet with a raise. If I raise, do I win 1 time in 6? If I call, do I win one time in 10, plus the number of overcallers?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think both are both close and that it sucks that there's still 3 villains in, but I'd answer yes to both questions. But I think the calling one is closer than the raising one, and that the raising one is more +EV than calling.

This board is about as drawy as they come; even if we assume the opponents aren't donks that call down with A4o, there's several legitimate flush draws, straights, and overcards that people could justify calling. I think you're ahead of the river bettor as much as 50% of the time; if this is correct, the two guys behind you need to be on draws 1 time in 5 for a call to be profittable. I think it sucks because there's two of them, but barely profitable.

I agree that if you get a CCer, it's a jack, but I'm more interested in folding out any nines in the field. Since nobody woke up when the seven paired, I think the most likely hands are some straight/flush draw or a 9. If we assume that the bettor is full of bs half of the time, then you're fighting for about 5BB. If a guy has a 9, he only needs to fold it like 1 time in 5 for the raise to be 0EV. I think this is pretty plausible.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
i think calling is the worst of the 3 options even if CO does have the J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking r>c>f. You don't think Hero is best one time in ten here?

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think calling is the worst of the 3 options even if CO does have the J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking r>c>f. You don't think Hero is best one time in ten here?

[/ QUOTE ]

doubtful with all those people in the hand. we may have CO beaten, but i don't know about the other hands behind us. the pot is big enough IMO to put in an extra BB here to try and maximize our chances of winning.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think calling is the worst of the 3 options even if CO does have the J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking r>c>f. You don't think Hero is best one time in ten here?

[/ QUOTE ]

we may have CO beaten, but i don't know about the other hands behind us. the pot is big enough IMO to put in an extra BB here to try and maximize our chances of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree, but I would throw up in my mouth a little bit if the two players behind me folded their busted draws because this guy is bluffing a very significant percentage of the time.

[@bsolute_luck]

that's entirely true, but i think it is pot size that dictates this decision IMO.