QQ capped + donkbet

This hand was from a 9-handed Pacific 0.5/1 table last night. No reads yet.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">MP 3-bets</font>, 4 folds, <font color="red">BB caps</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, MP folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
<font color="red">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero ?

Thoughts on:
1. the betting progression
2. BB hand range
3. UTG hand range
4. Hero suggested action
would be appreciated.

[imported_The Vibesman]

It's tough without reads, but if BB is a reasonable player then it's possible you are beat, as his preflop cap out of position against two raisers indicates a strong hand. But if we are to take his betting as straightforward, he actually may have AK here and hope he is against two other unimproved hands here and we are ahead. I think I get one more raise in here at the turn, and call down to further aggression. UTG still hanging around in the hand makes it a bit tougher, but until he does anything but just call I'm not going to worry too much. Maybe a pair of 7's or something silly.

[UATrewqaz]

I raise, if 3 bet I call it down to showdown as I figure he HAS to have AA/KK or a T at that point.

He could have JJ.

[deception5]

1. When BB wakes up here aagain he's either trying to keep UTG in the hand with a monster like AA/KK (doesn't want to make him call 2 on the flop) or he thinks his Ax is splitting now with the board double paired.
2. Preflop cap, trying to represent TT+/AK/AQs, could be weaker, especially at pacific.
3. Overcards, AK-J or KQs probably. Could also have something like JJ and is scared of the 2 of you but wants to show down. Or could be a really passively played AA/KK/TT.
4. Raise. With UTG trapped in the middle there's a reasonable chance you have the best hand. The river is unlikely to improve your hand (although it wouldn't be a bad idea to river a queen). If 3-bet I call and see what the action is on the river. Call 1 bet fold if BB bets and UTG wakes up and raises.

[aargh57]

I don't think there's anything wrong with the betting progression. I think you're flop raise was good. Considering its .5/1 Pacific I think the hand raise for BB is probably and overpair (AA or KK) but could also be AK or AQ. When he bet into you on the turn after you're flop raise I'm thinking more on the lines of AA or KK but There's a chance he's betting with just an ace hoping you were also betting overcards. However with UTG calling I think I would have to fold. I think there's too much of a chance that either UTG has a T or 3 (could have something like AT, A3, AJ, less likely hands could be medium pocket pairs) coupled with BB having an overpair. Even if you're ahead now, you can still easily lose on the river with an A or K hitting (in which case you can get a split at best). I say fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the hand raise for BB is probably and overpair (AA or KK) but could also be AK or AQ. When he bet into you on the turn after you're flop raise I'm thinking more on the lines of AA or KK but There's a chance he's betting with just an ace hoping you were also betting overcards. However with UTG calling I think I would have to fold. I think there's too much of a chance that either UTG has a T or 3 (could have something like AT, A3, AJ, less likely hands could be medium pocket pairs) coupled with BB having an overpair. Even if you're ahead now, you can still easily lose on the river with an A or K hitting (in which case you can get a split at best). I say fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a little too tight. We have a premium hand here that could reasonably be good more than 1 time in 13 or so. With the logic you cited (BB/UTG may have overs) I think we are justified to at least call down.

[aargh57]

Yeah, I think you're right. I kind of agonized over that one but after reading the other comments I would have to agree with you. I think Sklansky said in HPFAP that when it's a close decision between calling and folding and you're in doubt, tend to call (especially in loose games). You're right, too tight.

Seeing as how it's .50/1.00, UTG probably has some random crap cards and is calling for no good reason. Might be a low pocket pair.

Raising or calling the turn seems reasonable. I believe I would raise.

[ QUOTE ]
1. When BB wakes up here aagain he's either trying to keep UTG in the hand with a monster like AA/KK (doesn't want to make him call 2 on the flop) or he thinks his Ax is splitting now with the board double paired.
2. Preflop cap, trying to represent TT+/AK/AQs, could be weaker, especially at pacific.
3. Overcards, AK-J or KQs probably. Could also have something like JJ and is scared of the 2 of you but wants to show down. Or could be a really passively played AA/KK/TT.
4. Raise. With UTG trapped in the middle there's a reasonable chance you have the best hand. The river is unlikely to improve your hand (although it wouldn't be a bad idea to river a queen). If 3-bet I call and see what the action is on the river. Call 1 bet fold if BB bets and UTG wakes up and raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

You hit it on the head.

The table was so passive PF, so the capping had me thinking my QQ was dead in the water. I wound up calling down (UTG folded the river when bet into), and villain showed A4o (wtf?) so I was good. As mentioned, I think he figured Ax would split the pot with me once the 3 turned. I let my fear of one hand (AA) blind me from making this analysis at the table (and raising) and it cost me a couple of bets here.