KJs... it's a question of value

[molawn2mo]

another 2+2er and i have discussed this hand some and can not seem to agree here.

5/10 party 10 handed

no crazies involved here, rather, opponents are better than average players. villain is of average aggression

utg1 limps, mp3 calls, i, on the button, raise K /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, sb makes it 3. limpers and i call.

Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, call, fold and i call

Turn is K /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, fold, i raise and sb calls

River is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

sb checks, i???

please give reasons for your play. if your play is bet, then please give your thoughts on your actions were villain to raise your river bet; that is, why you would call, raise or fold to villain's river raise.

i am leaving the office now and will not be able to respond for a couple of hours.

[hobbsmann]

This all depends on how straight forward of a TAG sb is. If he is the type to get tricky often after you raise the turn with hands that beat you than a check behind is in order as you are not ahead of his probable capping range (AA-TT, AK).

On the other hand, this is a value bet if sb is fairly ABC. I'd also fold to a c/r.

[chief444]

I check. If there weren't 3 clubs on the board on the turn I'd bet. But AA/AK will be afraid enough of this board to just check/call down after you raise the turn. So I think the turn raise is fine but I don't think you're ahead 50% of the time you're called here.

[newhizzle]

i bet, the turn action didnt represent that villian has a flush and if hes made a straight or has just trips he probly wont raise because of the flush possibility and your raise on the turn, a slowplayed or just made boat is something of concern tho

I think he has 3 of a kind (9) because he bet on flop but then just called on turn when he saw third club land.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has 3 of a kind (9) because he bet on flop but then just called on turn when he saw third club land.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sammy remember SB three bet pre flop I doubt he has a nine in his hand. You have to think about SB three bet range here.

[W. Deranged]

My problem here is that since the board is paired, villain is extremely likely to take your turn raise a representing a monster hand, like trips, and simply call down. Many opponents would not three-bet here with a hand as good as AK or even AK for exactly this reason.

When villain decides to pull off a card here on the turn instead of folding to the raise, given that he is not a total fishcakes who'll call down with anything, I get a bit worried. If he's pulling a card to try and hit a club to compliment his Q or J of clubs, he may well fold the river anyway. If he has a good hand like AA or AK he's probably not folding.

If we note that there are 6 AA and 8 AK that could call and beat us, and 6 versions of QQ and 3 of JJ, I'm having a bit of a hard time seeing a bet here against a pre-flop three-bettor. AQ or something like that is almost certainly folding, and probably only called because he picked up a flush draw.

I think checking behind here is probably good.

[Mister Z]

Value bet it. Preflop tells me he has AK, AA, KK, QQ, maybe JJ, and maybe AQs I don't want to give QQ, JJ, maybe AQ a free showdown when they will likely pay off. Given his turn action, I don't think he has AA, AK, or KK.

I'm folding to a raise. Given your read, there isn't a hand out there that he would raise that I would beat at showdown, and it's too unlikely that villain would bluff-raise the river... but I don't play 5/10 so maybe I'm wrong on that part.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Given his turn action, I don't think he has AA, AK, or KK.



[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

KK may well get cute and try to check-raise the river.

I would say a vast majority of standard passive small stakes players would never take AA or AK to three-bets on this turn given that the board is paired. Hell, I don't know if I would all the time. People tend to associate turn raises on paired flops with trips, and correctly so. That's problem with the river value bet; your turn raise will likely put these hands into call down mode, and so any "information" you think the turn raise gives you is muddy.

[Redd]

Can we drop this on the turn if 3-bet?

[Mister Z]

I don't think villain getting jiggy with KK is very likely without a specific read. But after reading through the hand again, and realizing how scary the board is, I think AA and AK are a bigger possibility than I gave credit. I'm leaning more toward a check on the river now.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
Can we drop this on the turn if 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
another 2+2er and i have discussed this hand some and can not seem to agree here.

5/10 party 10 handed

no crazies involved here, rather, opponents are better than average players. villain is of average aggression

utg1 limps, mp3 calls, i, on the button, raise K /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, sb makes it 3. limpers and i call.

Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, call, fold and i call

Turn is K /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, fold, i raise and sb calls

River is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

sb checks, i???


[/ QUOTE ]

i bet, sb raise, i???

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
another 2+2er and i have discussed this hand some and can not seem to agree here.

5/10 party 10 handed

no crazies involved here, rather, opponents are better than average players. villain is of average aggression

utg1 limps, mp3 calls, i, on the button, raise K /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, sb makes it 3. limpers and i call.

Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, call, fold and i call

Turn is K /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, fold, i raise and sb calls

River is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

sb checks, i???


[/ QUOTE ]

i bet, sb raise, i???

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold. Your ahead of exactly QQ and JJ and given your read I don't see him raising with either.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
another 2+2er and i have discussed this hand some and can not seem to agree here.

5/10 party 10 handed

no crazies involved here, rather, opponents are better than average players. villain is of average aggression

utg1 limps, mp3 calls, i, on the button, raise K /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, sb makes it 3. limpers and i call.

Flop is 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, call, fold and i call

Turn is K /images/graemlins/club.gif

sb bets, fold, i raise and sb calls

River is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

sb checks, i???


[/ QUOTE ]

i bet, sb raise, i???

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy Fold.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
i bet, the turn action didnt represent that villian has a flush and if hes made a straight or has just trips he probly wont raise because of the flush possibility and your raise on the turn, a slowplayed or just made boat is something of concern tho

[/ QUOTE ]

this, i believe, was pretty much my exact thinking.

[molawn2mo]

yep easy, easy fold to the river raise.

[Shillx]

The turn raise is pretty fishy IMO. All you are going to do is fold out QQ and JJ and get 3-bet by AA and KK and AK. There is no benfit to making this raise once it gets HU. With people to act behind you then it is a different story....

Fold to the river check/raise. When was the last time you called one and won?

Brad

[neuroman]

I'd check behind on the river. AA, AK, KK are very possibile. Also I don't even know if QQ-JJ are going to pay off on the river. If he had QcQx or JcJx he'd probably want to call your turn raise to see if a 4th club landed, but fold to a bet.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given his turn action, I don't think he has AA, AK, or KK.



[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

KK may well get cute and try to check-raise the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

really?

i don't like the way i played this hand but can you explain what hand villain holds that calls the turn raise and check rasies the river?

the nut flush and KK really ought have played faster on the turn because a more intelligent hero would have checked behind and villain would have gained zilcho! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

There are two reasons to bet on the end in limit poker. 1) to get a worse hand to call, 2) to get a better hand to fold.

You own description - "no crazies", "average aggression," suggests he does not have a 9 since he 3-bet preflop. The same logic says he does not have QJ, and the only way he has a flush is with A /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif.

So let's say his likely range of hands is AA-JJ, AK, AQs (clubs).

So we accept that he won't fold a flush or Kings full, but will he fold AA or AK? Will he call with QQ or JJ?

If you bet and he raises, you have to call getting 15:1. If he folds AA or AK as little as 10% of the time, it's worth a bet.

Bet and call a raise.