Turn play with trips in face of aggression

Both villains appear loose passive (+50 VP$IP) after about 15 hands. Also, what is the plan for remainder of the hand?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

[davelin]

I'd pitch this pre-flop. FYI, you have trips, not a set.

Thats an intresting play. Depending on the opponent, i'm somewhere between calling down and and 3 betting. Since UTG is still in, theres a chance hes playing one of those trendy suited connector hands (87s) but you still have 10 outs for a boat.

[Taxmanrick]

Easy fold for me. Especially to raise. You have weak trips(4 kckr).

Am i crazy here or what?
I see a SB continuing his PFR, highly doubt the flop hit him, probably has a pocket over pair. i think the UTG raised because he wants to knock the hero out, and get a free card for his flush. Turn i'm a little lost on, but i thought from how it worked out on the flop, the heros hand is good.

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FYI, you have trips, not a set.

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Duh /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[imported_The Vibesman]

I think I'd need a few more limpers before I came in preflop.

On the turn, I'm not crazy about my hand, but I don't know if I can pitch it. It's possible SB has a high pocket pair like Jacks, and that UTG+1 has a nine. It doesn't seem likely though. Damn, I hate my hand.

I'm still probably calling down tho. I'm not 3betting and I'm hoping to God SB quits donking around. This is probably a massive leak.

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I'd pitch this pre-flop.

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Really? I thought it was pretty standard to call with suited connectors from the button for one bet (and then to call if raised for one more bet). Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

[davelin]

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I'd pitch this pre-flop.

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Really? I thought it was pretty standard to call with suited connectors from the button for one bet (and then to call if raised for one more bet). Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

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Suited connectors thrive on implied odds. Only one limper cuts this down dramatically.

[imported_The Vibesman]

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you still have 10 outs for a boat.

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This isn't exactly right, as Hero doesn't have a set. 3 fours, 3 nines, 3 sixes give hero a boat, but I don't know how much weight you can attach to the nines, it seems possible that may give someone nines full. I'd heavily discount those outs or pitch them fully.

[crownjules]

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Am i crazy here or what?
I see a SB continuing his PFR, highly doubt the flop hit him, probably has a pocket over pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this assessment and it's probably correct. SB has a large pair or worse (UI OCs). I am not fearing his stop n' go on the turn.

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i think the UTG raised because he wants to knock the hero out, and get a free card for his flush. Turn i'm a little lost on, but i thought from how it worked out on the flop, the heros hand is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any reasonable player would want Hero in the pot if they are on a flush draw, and most micro players (except LAGs) do not raise with draws. The odds of him holding the last 5 are miniscule. 15 hands really isn't enough to label villain anything conclusively, and there are only two hands here that we are reasonably behind, 87 and 99.

I would call the raise and, barring hitting my last five, call the river. Bet if checked to.

[Bankuri]

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you still have 10 outs for a boat.

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This isn't exactly right, as Hero doesn't have a set. 3 fours, 3 nines, 3 sixes give hero a boat, but I don't know how much weight you can attach to the nines, it seems possible that may give someone nines full. I'd heavily discount those outs or pitch them fully.

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he has three of a kind, so it's 10 outs to a boat or better (the 1 out being the last 5). The out counting doesn't change if it's a set vs. trips. However, with trips you greatly increase the chance of being beat by a higher boat (as you mentioned above), so you can't count all 10.

[imported_The Vibesman]

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you still have 10 outs for a boat.

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This isn't exactly right, as Hero doesn't have a set. 3 fours, 3 nines, 3 sixes give hero a boat, but I don't know how much weight you can attach to the nines, it seems possible that may give someone nines full. I'd heavily discount those outs or pitch them fully.

[/ QUOTE ]

he has three of a kind, so it's 10 outs to a boat or better (the 1 out being the last 5). The out counting doesn't change if it's a set vs. trips. However, with trips you greatly increase the chance of being beat by a higher boat (as you mentioned above), so you can't count all 10.

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Expressed it better than me. I'm at work and going too fast.

[crownjules]

[ QUOTE ]
he has three of a kind, so it's 10 outs to a boat or better (the 1 out being the last 5). The out counting doesn't change if it's a set vs. trips. However, with trips you greatly increase the chance of being beat by a higher boat (as you mentioned above), so you can't count all 10.

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/images/graemlins/confused.gif

When counting outs, you always factor in the chance of you making a better hand but not improving to the best hand. That's why OCs are usually counted for only 1.5 outs, the non-nut FD for less than then full 9 outs, etc.. In Hero's situation, a double pairing of the board, especially the 9s, could very well make him a boat, but someone else just improved to a better hand.

So, the statement Vibesman made is true. You can never give yourself the full 10 outs if you have trips, but you can the majority of the time with a set.

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Am i crazy here or what?
I see a SB continuing his PFR, highly doubt the flop hit him, probably has a pocket over pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this assessment and it's probably correct. SB has a large pair or worse (UI OCs). I am not fearing his stop n' go on the turn.

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i think the UTG raised because he wants to knock the hero out, and get a free card for his flush. Turn i'm a little lost on, but i thought from how it worked out on the flop, the heros hand is good.

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Any reasonable player would want Hero in the pot if they are on a flush draw, and most micro players (except LAGs) do not raise with draws. The odds of him holding the last 5 are miniscule. 15 hands really isn't enough to label villain anything conclusively, and there are only two hands here that we are reasonably behind, 87 and 99.

I would call the raise and, barring hitting my last five, call the river. Bet if checked to.

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this is going to wet your noodle. how about..A9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

I 3-bet. Villains folded.

This isn't a brag post. Far from it. When I did it, my knuckles were white because I was half-expecting one of the Villains to have a FH or straight. And I thought maybe I was too aggressive (which most of the replies to my post also suggest), despite the good result.

However, I raised because: (A) it was a large pot (10 BB), I had a strong hand, and I therefore wanted to be aggressive; (B) my raise might cause a flush draw or straight draw to fold (they shouldn't, except for maybe a gutshot draw, but might b/c they might think I have a FH, or might miscalculate or not think about their odds); and (C) maybe most importantly, I thought there was a very good chance I was best at that point b/c of the range of worse hands I thought the opponents could be holding (2 pair; pairs; flush draws; straight draws).

And once I made the decision to raise here, if the others stayed in the hand (with call or cap), I was going to show it down. I would have called any river bet, and bet myself if checked to (calling any raise).

[Taxmanrick]

After reading Ed Miller's post about large pots I would like to amend my statement!!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif This is obviously a leak of mine. Nice play!

[Bankuri]

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When counting outs, you always factor in the chance of you making a better hand but not improving to the best hand. That's why OCs are usually counted for only 1.5 outs, the non-nut FD for less than then full 9 outs, etc.. In Hero's situation, a double pairing of the board, especially the 9s, could very well make him a boat, but someone else just improved to a better hand.

So, the statement Vibesman made is true. You can never give yourself the full 10 outs if you have trips, but you can the majority of the time with a set.

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Ok, I think this is a semantic issue. I've always used the term 'outs' to refer to the number of cards in the deck that can improve your hand (e.g. 10 outs to improve from three of a kind to full house or better). You then discount those outs based on opponents' play and the board to arrive at your chances of improving to the best hand. Unfortunately people use the same word to describe both the number of cards to improve your hand, and the 'effective outs' that give you a probability of improving to the best hand.

[deception5]

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Easy fold for me. Especially to raise. You have weak trips(4 kckr).

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No way I'm throwing this away.

[Taxmanrick]

See my later post...I think I found a leak of mine! /images/graemlins/grin.gif Sometimes I assume too much!! I probably would have assumed I was up against A5s or A9s and folded to the raise but called 1 bet.

[deception5]

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See my later post...I think I found a leak of mine! Sometimes I assume too much!! I probably would have assumed I was up against A5s or A9s and folded to the raise but called 1 bet.

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Just making sure /images/graemlins/smile.gif

And I would hope you wouldn't fold if you thought you were up against A9s /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Remember you have a fair number of outs even against another 5. And people play crazy with any pair on a paired board assuming no one actually has trips.

[Taxmanrick]

sorry meant 99 not A9s /images/graemlins/smile.gif