Did I suck out on this??? Odds question>>>

[Taxmanrick]

I just sat down at this table but it seemed pretty loose.
PT had he players in this hand as LAG. I felt I had adds to call these bets all the way and on the river checked because I felt I would definitely get a bet to c/r. Did i suck out?


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (16.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 28.50 BB

[POKhER]

Fold preflop?(Agg table = possible raise)
Fold the flop? Fold the turn? River standard.

7:1 flop, then you cold call 2 bets....

You don't have enough odds to cold call.

[Taxmanrick]

Maybe i'm mis-calculating...flop is 18-2 back to me(9-1)
Turn is 13.5-2 back to me(6.25-1)
I have a double gut shot both times(4.75-1)

[Taxmanrick]

By the way...I RARELY cold call...but thought it was right here.

[turaho]

Preflop is a raise or fold situation. Unsuited high cards play better against fewer opponents, so I'd raise preflop.

You have a double belly buster straight draw on the flop, but there's also a flush draw on the board. If you give yourself 6 outs (discounting for the flush draw--I'm not going to consider your overcard outs for now, but you'll see why), then your first flop call is fine (you need 6.7:1 to continue and you're getting 7:1). I'd be worried with four people left to act after you, though.

When it comes back to you on the flop raised and re-raised you again have the odds (9:1 to call this time) so you're fine, but I'd be convinced someone was on a flush draw, if not a flopped straight by this point.

Your turn decision is offering you perfect break-even odds (6.75:1 when it's back to you) and the pot is plenty big and your implied odds will pay off big time if you hit, so it's also a call.

River is standard.

So yes, you did have odds to call the whole way, but I would have been sweating bullets.

[hemstock]

Yes you did have the odds and implied odds.
I agree preflop you either raise this utg or fold.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop?(Agg table = possible raise)
Fold the flop? Fold the turn? River standard.

7:1 flop, then you cold call 2 bets....

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'd fold this hand just because I thought it was possible a raise was going to happen.

Even in my normal, non-LAG tables, the average PFR % can be around 5 or 6%, which means that more than half of the time there is a raise pf (I prefer it around 3% though, of course).

If the table is loose enough, and you can expect more than just the aggro person in the hand I don't think a limp is bad.

You had the odds, with the double-gutshot, so it wasn't a suckout per-se. A suck-out is calling without odds and hitting a small-outter to take the pot.

Since your 'outs' were very likely winners, it was okay to call with the outs even with the aggression that probably states there's an AA out there, or a set. If the board had been paired I would like it a lot less. I also wouldn't have liked any raises if just a K or J fell.

KO

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is a raise or fold situation. Unsuited high cards play better against fewer opponents, so I'd raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uggh... I don't think I'd ever raise KJo UTG. If you get called, you're a dog, IMO.

It is true that unsuited high cards play better against fewer opponents, and yes I would raise KJo in late position to isolate a loose limper, but I would not raise it UTG. I really really don't like that idea.

KO

[Innocentius]

I think the only questionable call is your first one on the flop (well, maybe, as someone suggested above, with an aggressive table, you could fold pf). On the flop you get 7:1 odds, which seems good enough, but I think there are some factors that make the call worse than it seems. First, an 8 would give you a straigh with only one of your holecards. This makes a split very likely, and you migh even lose to QJ. Second, as the table is agressive, a raise behind you is quite likely, and you don't want to pay more to see the turn. I think this is a fold, but I'm far from certain.

[Taxmanrick]

I was sweating bullets and really hated cold calling all the way but the odds kept telling me to stay. BTW as I look at SSHE loose games guide it says to limp in early position w KJo.

[Bankuri]

[ QUOTE ]
I was sweating bullets and really hated cold calling all the way but the odds kept telling me to stay. BTW as I look at SSHE loose games guide it says to limp in early position w KJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you find loose 1/2 games on party? I almost never sit at a table that averages 6 players to the flop. Generally it is 3-4 players with the occasional 8 player LPfest hand. Was this table averaging that many players to the flop (this hand had only 5)? If not, you should be using the tight games guide which says only play KJo from middle position or later.

[Taxmanrick]

You are right. I've been playing .5/1 so long i forgot about the other table. I will make that adjustment. Thank you!

I think you didn't suck out, BUT the double cold calling is gross, but it had to be done. I very rarely call a raise and fold to a reraise behind me. It seems very weak. GH.

[eviljeff]

looks fine, I discout your outs a bit due to the flush possibility if the 8h or Qh comes and the fact that you could tie with another J if the 8 comes. still I think you're good.

[turaho]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop is a raise or fold situation. Unsuited high cards play better against fewer opponents, so I'd raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uggh... I don't think I'd ever raise KJo UTG. If you get called, you're a dog, IMO.

It is true that unsuited high cards play better against fewer opponents, and yes I would raise KJo in late position to isolate a loose limper, but I would not raise it UTG. I really really don't like that idea.

KO

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to say something in my post about raising KJo from EP generally being a bad idea for exactly those reasons, but sometimes (if you're at a weak-tight 8-handed table that respects your raises too much and you're a good post-flop player) I don't think it's a horrible idea.

KJs on the other hand, I'm raising every time.

And all due respect to Mr. Miller, but I'd rather gnaw off my left arm than limp KJo in any position. In HEPFAP, Sklansky talks about limping marginal hands like KJo in loose games to keep the pot small and prevent your opponent's play from being closer to correct, but if someone raises behind you it'll be really hard figuring out where you're at and too often you'll be paying off with the second best hand.

Post-grunch edits: I missed the double-belly buster and miscalculated pot odds on the turn (they're actually 12.5:2 or 6.25:1). Calling turn is good with your implied odds. Nice hand!

Flop: Calls are good. I count 8 outs. 4 for gutshot. 1.5 for BDFD. 2.5 for overcards (discounted from 6). Thus, you are 5-1 to make your hand on the flop. Immediate pot odds are 7-to-1 on first call and 9-1 on second call. So I call.

Turn: Call is wrong. I count 6.5 outs. 4 for gutshot. 2.5 for overcards (discounted from 6). Thus, you are a little under 7-1 to make your hand on the turn. Immediate pot odds oare 5.25-to-1. So I fold.

River: You made your draw. Nice c/r. I would have done the same -- it certainly looked like you win and that it would not get checked through, allowing you to put in a winning c/r.

[deception5]

You played this hand perfectly, only thing that's close is whether to raise preflop or not but I think limping is a good option here.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]

I was going to say something in my post about raising KJo from EP generally being a bad idea for exactly those reasons, but sometimes (if you're at a weak-tight 8-handed table that respects your raises too much and you're a good post-flop player) I don't think it's a horrible idea.

KJs on the other hand, I'm raising every time.

And all due respect to Mr. Miller, but I'd rather gnaw off my left arm than limp KJo in any position. In HEPFAP, Sklansky talks about limping marginal hands like KJo in loose games to keep the pot small and prevent your opponent's play from being closer to correct, but if someone raises behind you it'll be really hard figuring out where you're at and too often you'll be paying off with the second best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, personally I think they're both right.

Sklansky was talking about Hold'em in general, which I take to mostly be mid-limit games, where the average player will play a little smarter.

Miller was talking about small stakes in particular, where the average person will play too many hands, go too far with their hands, and make a lot of mistakes. KJo is a MUCH better hand than the junk they will play. If you have a table of thinking players, then yah, KJo needs to go by the wayside.

I think in micro-limits limping KJo early is just fine. But yes, you have to play well post-flop and know thine enemy.

KO

[DeathDonkey]

Of course you can't fold, but I might raise first time on the flop, you have two overcards also which might be clean outs and if that is true you have a ton of equity.

The rest is standard though I might lead the river.

-DeathDonkey

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you find loose 1/2 games on party? I almost never sit at a table that averages 6 players to the flop. Generally it is 3-4 players with the occasional 8 player LPfest hand. Was this table averaging that many players to the flop (this hand had only 5)? If not, you should be using the tight games guide which says only play KJo from middle position or later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it was fine to limp here, there are clearly 6 players limping in this hand. And KJo is going to perform fairly well regardless... especially against loose players. The chart is just suggested as a guideline, it's more important to know why you would limp/raise/fold here as there are situations where each is appropriate.

Some reasons you might raise:
You know 2 bad players will cold call with any 2 cards and the rest of the table will fold. Getting shorthanded against really bad players with a strong hand is very profitable.
You know players behind you would fold something like AJ because of your ep raise and you will often steal the blinds.

A reason to limp:
You are at a loose passive table where everyone is going to see the flop whether you raise or not. Your hand is strong but doesn't have a huge edge (and is in fact a slight underdog to Ax). They will call you down to the river if they hit anything.

A reason to fold:
You are at an aggressive table where it is frequently raised and reraised behind you. It is likely going to cost you 3-4 bets to see the flop.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course you can't fold, but I might raise first time on the flop, you have two overcards also which might be clean outs and if that is true you have a ton of equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I would probably cap with 4 opponents here if you chose not to raise the first time around.

[johnc]

I'm going to say you're on very thin odds to draw on the flop &amp; turn and calling should be VERY read dependant.

Flop: The board is very coordinated, 2 flush, str8 draws all possible. The strong betting indicates strong draws &amp;/or flopped sets or 2 pairs. By the time it gerts back to you you're getting ~9:1, I'm figuring your odds are worth about 8.5-1 w/overcards are worth about three between then b/c a K or a J could make someone their str8, your gutshot about 4 (now, hoping the flush doesn't come thru w/Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif,but your redraw might bail you out), and your BD flush at about 1.5 (hoping someones not drawing to the nut w/the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif -very possible given the betting). Call is marginal, but peel one off and see.

Turn: Your BD flush draw is bye-bye w/the 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif so your outs are reduced, not a great card for you and may also give someone a redraw to the spade flush. Your outs at this as I see them are: OC - aren't worth much b/c they're str8 threats and the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif &amp; the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif put three to a very likely flush so I'll give them a generous 2 outs, your gutshot is only worth 2 clean outs(can't count Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif or Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif), so that gives you about 4 decent outs to a possible winner. The pots giving you ~6.25:1, you need better than 10.5:1 to continue, You need to fold here.

River: you caught one of the two best cards in the deck for the nut str8 - yeah you sucked out, IMO.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
The board is very coordinated, 2 flush, str8 draws all possible

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what the hero is counting on. If a flush card comes he has a redraw to the second nuts. If a flush card doesn't come his straight will be the likely best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
The strong betting indicates strong draws &amp;/or flopped sets or 2 pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Top pairs or overpairs perhaps.

[ QUOTE ]
your gutshot about 4

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a double gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
K /images/graemlins/heart.gif put three to a very likely flush

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wouldn't worry about this... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
so that gives you about 4 decent outs to a possible winner. The pots giving you ~6.25:1, you need better than 10.5:1 to continue, You need to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why were the overcards worth 3 outs on the flop but not the turn? Also double gutshot for 8 outs.

[johnc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The board is very coordinated, 2 flush, str8 draws all possible

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what the hero is counting on. If a flush card comes he has a redraw to the second nuts. If a flush card doesn't come his straight will be the likely best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
The strong betting indicates strong draws &amp;/or flopped sets or 2 pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Top pairs or overpairs perhaps.

[ QUOTE ]
your gutshot about 4

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a double gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
K /images/graemlins/heart.gif put three to a very likely flush

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wouldn't worry about this... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
so that gives you about 4 decent outs to a possible winner. The pots giving you ~6.25:1, you need better than 10.5:1 to continue, You need to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why were the overcards worth 3 outs on the flop but not the turn? Also double gutshot for 8 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Double gutshot? Ok, I see it.

K /images/graemlins/heart.gif (bad edit job, sorry) it should've been Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Why are the OC only worth maybe three outs, IMO.Because you'll put three to a str8 on the board with either one thus discounting your TP chances of being best. The Turn is even worse b/c you no longer have a BD flush possiblity AND there's still the possiblity that those cards make a str8 for one of your opponents. HU I'd say they would be ok, maybe,but against multiple opponents showing definate strength no.

Even though I missed the double gutshot, I can't justify given it 8 "clean outs". Do you not see 2 flush possiblities on the board, esp the heart draw?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are the OC only worth maybe three outs, IMO.Because you'll put three to a str8 on the board with either one thus discounting your TP chances of being best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only mentioned it because you counted them in your flop analysis but not the turn analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
Even though I missed the double gutshot, I can't justify given it 8 "clean outs". Do you not see 2 flush possiblities on the board, esp the heart draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree they should be discounted to 6.5 or so. I don't give much credit to a backdoor spades draw with all the flop action, although it is a rare possibility. When it's a bet and raise on the turn, those players are more likely to have a made hand than a draw. The callers which were the players I would be more worried about having a flush draw folded. We're getting 2:14 or so on the turn or around 1:7 meaning even if we only give ourselves 6 clean outs we have odds to continue here. Let alone the implied odds if you do make your hand.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
. . . you have two overcards also which might be clean outs and if that is true you have a ton of equity.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

The K looks ok but the only J I'd like on the turn is the Jh, and then you no longer have a draw to the nut straight, though an opponent with AK is unlikely here. Overcards equal maybe 2.5-3 outs here?

[Bankuri]

[ QUOTE ]

I think it was fine to limp here, there are clearly 6 players limping in this hand. And KJo is going to perform fairly well regardless... especially against loose players. The chart is just suggested as a guideline, it's more important to know why you would limp/raise/fold here as there are situations where each is appropriate.


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh certainly. I have seen several posters, however, using the loose game guidelines in tight games. Embedded in the charts is some of the knowledge of why you play/don't play certain hands certain ways. Any specific table will have unique situations that make certain unplayable hands playable (and conversely certain playable hands may not be playable), but IME at your average pp 1/2 table you aren't going to be at a 'loose' table as defined by SSHE.

[Greg J]

My first reaction is to raise this flop. You have a few back door draws and a couple of overcards that might be good -- though I discount that when it's capped back to me. After that you are pretty much sucked into this pot.

I'm not a huge fan of the preflop limp. KJo is where I draw a line. I perfer a raise to a call here UTG, but a fold to both of those.

[@bsolute_luck]

fold preflop.
raise the flop.

[Taxmanrick]

Since I just moved up to 1/2(2 days ago) I see first off I need to start referring to the tight table and adjust when I come across the occasional loose table at this limit. I also see that my first mistake was to limp pre-flop. After all the responses, probably my biggest mistake was not raising the flop b/c of the equity I had. In the end, it worked out and I won a huge pot. I was mostly concerned during and after the hand about the cold-calling since I rarely do it.

Thanks for all the input. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Since I just moved up to 1/2(2 days ago) I see first off I need to start referring to the tight table and adjust when I come across the occasional loose table at this limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I would assume loose until proven otherwise. That's the advice in SSHE, anyhow, and in my experience the tables are still generally loose.

[Taxmanrick]

Well, that's how I normally play, but it seemed there was a lot of concern about my limp in EP. I thought there was something I didn't realize about 1/2. Although, the few tables I've played so far have been just as loose as .5/1.

[Bankuri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since I just moved up to 1/2(2 days ago) I see first off I need to start referring to the tight table and adjust when I come across the occasional loose table at this limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I would assume loose until proven otherwise. That's the advice in SSHE, anyhow, and in my experience the tables are still generally loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

SSHE is written with the B&amp;M player in mind I believe (at least I recall Ed posting something to the effect that you get 6+ people seeing the flop frequently in B&amp;M situations). Also, the tight tables in SSHE go up to an average of 5 people seeing the flop. By most people's definitions, this is quite loose.

[aargh57]

I posted a question about using the loose games chart in the beginners forum:http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3148035&amp;page=1&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1

The loose games SSH chart says it applies when there are 6-8 players on the flop on average. Let's assume that the blinds never fold and you play 17% of your hands. That means in every pot there will be 2.17 people in it to start. That means out of the remaining 7, 3.83 people need to be in the hand. That means the VPIP % would need to be 55%. I think it's pretty safe to say that you could go quite a long time without running into a table of this type. (Also, when you start to consider blinds not playing 100% the figure gets even higher.) Am I missing something?

I got a bunch of reply's stating that SSH was written for B&amp;M games but I think that for Party it should rarely be used. How often do you see the VPIP get to 55% on Party 1/2?

Also, for KJo in particular it seems that Ed Miller is a little inconsistent. In the chart he has you limping but in the questions part (p.318) it says you should usually raise after 1 or 2 loose players have limped. Now before you jump all over me, I want to say that I know the rationale behind raising after 1 or 2 loose players with this hand (it's becuase you will probably have an advantage on average over them and you would like to keep it short handed, right?) The problem is, I don't see this anywhere else in the book besides the questions. I guess this isn't necessarily inconsistent but I do think that it doesn't explain it in the preflop section and in a sense is a trick question.

(I also know that the chart isn't meant to be used as hard fast rules and you should learn to play hands based on their indivudual value taking your opponents into consideration.)

[TeeVeeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
(I also know that the chart isn't meant to be used as hard fast rules and you should learn to play hands based on their indivudual value taking your opponents into consideration.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you answered your own question.

[Taxmanrick]

(I also know that the chart isn't meant to be used as hard fast rules and you should learn to play hands based on their indivudual value taking your opponents into consideration.)

[/ QUOTE ]

After posting this hand, I realize that I can't use the tables "exclusively." Up till now, I have. It's just that I don't consider myself "good enough" to deviate. Besides, Miller does say not to deviate very often.(Doesen't he?)

Anyway, It seems I need to work that part of my game.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
After posting this hand, I realize that I can't use the tables "exclusively." Up till now, I have. It's just that I don't consider myself "good enough" to deviate. Besides, Miller does say not to deviate very often.(Doesen't he?)

Anyway, It seems I need to work that part of my game.

[/ QUOTE ]
I had the same feeling. I had my chart in front of me on the desk at all times. Now I only pull it down every once in a while to check. Keep playing and you'll know which hands play better in certain situations.