30+3 PP Level 2: Facing huge overbet with good draws

[Pete H]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP ( $1810 )
CO ( $2240 )
Button ( $830 )
SB ( $665 )
Hero ( $815 )
UTG ( $815 )
UTG+1 ( $825 )

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t45, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t180) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB pushes, Hero ???

Most reasonable hand I can think for SB is Ax.
AK would've probably reraised preflop and if he has AT, I have enough outs.

I don't have the odds (if CO folds) against made set, straight or flush, but most likely those hands would've check-raised here.

At this point we don't have enough information about CO, but it doesn't matter that much.

If he's ahead of me and calls, I'm getting good odds to draw unless he has a made flush and that's not that likely as most of big diamonds are already used.

It's early, the pot was small before SB's push and 2 handed I'd fold this, but in this rare (at least for me) situation I can't think any reasonable ranges that would make pushing incorrect.

Agree? Disagree? Please, tell me why.

I don't have the full tournament history at work and I'm not 100% sure if I remember my reads correctly, but lets say SB was quite loose (and obviously aggressive) and CO was tightish and hadn't shown any aggression before.

[ChrisV]

What the hell are you putting your opponent on? KT? You're beating that hand, 60/40. Same with AT. I don't see him pushing a made hand and worst case you have flush outs anyway. A fold here would be ridiculous.

[yid3655]

This really is an easy call, with likely the best hand and a draw to nut flush and nut straight

[Hornacek]

[ QUOTE ]
A fold here would be ridiculous.

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[MarkGrandy]

this is Your chance to get Your stack (least) to 1540 and eliminate 1 player, if You fold You have the smallest stack.
You cant wait any longer better chance

P.S. because You posted this, I think You folded or called and lost ?

[KramerTM]

Almost positive SB has AT here.

His push most likely means he has a fairly strong hand but does not want to see another card off because he fears the staright and flush draws. Overbets like this USUALLY mean weakness to me (a lot of times you'll see SB push here with Ax or MPGK) but not on a monotone board like this.

That said, I think I would call here. You certainly have 12 outs (9 diamonds and 3 non-diamond Jacks). If you're against AT which I strongly suspect, then you have an additional 6 outs (3 Kings will counterfeit his 2-pair, plus your 3 Queens). Finally if SB has Ax, you already have him killed.

BTW, I could also see SB doing with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif or J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif or really any lone J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[45suited]

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Almost positive SB has AT here.

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I really don't see how you can be "almost positive" about his specific hand here. Let's not go overboard with our ability to look into our opponents' souls. That said, I'd call as well.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
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Almost positive SB has AT here.

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I really don't see how you can be "almost positive" about his specific hand here. Let's not go overboard with our ability to look into our opponents' souls. That said, I'd call as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh relax. I'm just having fun with reads. No need to get all spritual on me. I know, I know... we put our opponent on a range of hands and play accordingly. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[45suited]

I'm not getting spiritual, whatever that means. I was just questioning your "almost positive" read, that's all.

Not a big deal though. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[KramerTM]

Looking into one's soul is quite spiritual indeed.

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A fold here would be ridonkulous.

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[/ QUOTE ]

fixed..

Sorry just had to add that, as my roommates used that word all the time freshmen year. Even if he has QJ with the Jd, you still have 8 diamonds for the win and 3 jacks for the split.

[Pete H]

[ QUOTE ]
this is Your chance to get Your stack (least) to 1540 and eliminate 1 player, if You fold You have the smallest stack.
You cant wait any longer better chance

P.S. because You posted this, I think You folded or called and lost ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Being the smallest stack of 750 chips on level 2 when there'd be 2 big stacks and 4 stacks of about 800 chips (two to my left for stealing) isn't reason not to fold in any situation.

The reasons not to fold here are that it's likely you have best hand or you have correct odds to draw.

The reason I posted this was that I had to think for a while before I made my choice that felt correct. And after I made my decision I wasn't 100% sure if it was the correct one.

It was a situation I hadn't have to think before and I want to be sure that next time I'm able to do that kind of choice automatically. Helps multitabling.

I'm new to 33's, so I don't know how much I should give credit for Average Joe's ability to do second level thinking. Probably as little as at 11/22's, but I just wanted to know if more experienced players would agree with my read that I'm most likely ahead of SB's range.

What surprises me a bit is that nobody's concerned about CO. I gave a good chance (probably way too big) that he has AK, KK or AA, and had to figure out my odds if he actually calls with a best hand before I made my decision
But like I already said SB's push helped and I had correct odds to draw, so that might explain why you only keep thinking about SB.

Actually now I think that CO could fold AK here and that would be very nice.

I also need to point out that if CO would've acted before me and folded, this would've been easy call for me.

When I mentioned that 2-handed I'd fold this, I meant situation when I'd be only caller against preflop raiser and he pushed this flop in front of me. Then I'd have to give much more credit for a set or top two pair fearing draws.

PS: You still have to wait for my first bad beat post. I pushed and what happened after that is irrelevant. Only result that matters (to me) is now I'm bit more confident in my play.

[1C5]

What did he have?

It is relevant what he had as it shows if your read was right or not.

He could have had a made flush for all we know also.

[Pete H]

[ QUOTE ]
What did he have?

It is relevant what he had as it shows if your read was right or not.

He could have had a made flush for all we know also.

[/ QUOTE ]

For this discussion it's irrelevant what this opponent had as I didn't give his screenname and even for me it's unlikely that I'm against him in similar situation.

What's relevant is we seem to agree that most of the time I'm ahead here.

But as I don't think there's much to discuss anymore, I'll give you his almost unbeatable hand: Jh, Kc