Sexy draw easy turn check? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Digs

08-26-2005, 02:44 AM

SB is TAG build, i've only had 15 hands agianst him so far
UTG is your typical LP, but raises pf a decent bit more.

Obviously flop play for value, the turn's my question clearly.

Sets up a c/r if I hit the 12 outer, I lose the pot when I dont pretty much.

Standard or can I make these guys fold enough?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB raises, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (11 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12 BB

SparkyDog

08-26-2005, 02:51 AM

easy turn check. they both stuck around for 3 bets on the flop so one on the turn isn't going to scare them both off.

Digs

08-26-2005, 02:53 AM

Thanks,
DERG is affecting my confidance in my plays.

wackjob

08-26-2005, 02:58 AM

Bet the turn!

SparkyDog

08-26-2005, 02:59 AM

why?

wackjob

08-26-2005, 03:02 AM

I think the chance of getting people to fold + the chance you make your hand is worth a turn bet here. You get to check behind on the river if you miss & think they will call again.

bobbyi

08-26-2005, 03:07 AM

SB clearly likes his hand. He isn't folding, he may raise and he can plainly beat your A7 right now. You have the opportunity to take a free card to try to draw out on him at no cost. Why would you not take it?

SparkyDog

08-26-2005, 03:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the chance of getting people to fold + the chance you make your hand is worth a turn bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) 20% a flush comes in
2) 6% you spike an ace
3) 6% you river a one card gutshot draw

Except for the flush neither one of those hands are really worth writing home about. So, let's say 25% you're hand is good, which makes it 3-1. Not getting value on the turn bet alone. How often exactly do you think they're folding? I'd say less than 5% of the time.

You do get to check behind on the river if you don't improve, but that's a pretty worthless benefit since ace-high is almost certainly no good here.

However if you check behind you lose nothing when you don't improve and when you hit your flush you might get one of them to lead into you so you can raise them. the implied odds of your hand are a lot higher if you check, because all you're going to get out of them on the river is one bet more than likely, if you hit.

Digs

08-26-2005, 03:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]

3) 6% you river a one card gutshot draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont think it changes the answer but we have an oesd here.

Nick C

08-26-2005, 03:15 AM

Your draw is so huge, with its 18 potential outs (9 flush, 6 straight, 3 top pair) that a turn bet could be for value against just two opponents, if you get called twice.

Getting checkraised instead would not be good, though, if this checkraise finally scares UTG away (though if he folds, that could possibly buy you two top pair outs that you wouldn't have had otherwise).

Also, UTG is playing like he's drawing, so you may not have quite as many outs as it appears (if he has 76, for instance, or even just two diamonds).

Anyway, I doubt you'll take it down with a turn bet. (I don't think SB is folding whatever he 3-bet with preflop very often in this big pot -- at least not yet.) Could a bet perhaps set up a river steal on a blank, though? That could be asking for a lot, but with such a big draw, you don't need that much folding equity to make pursuing a steal worthwhile.

I don't know. The turn check behind seems fine to me, really, but I also don't think you even mind getting checkraised a whole lot, so long as UTG doesn't fold.

So I am tempted to bet.

SparkyDog

08-26-2005, 03:15 AM

You're right. If you "knew" that the straight will scoop 100% of the time, then a bet is right at breakeven. But since it's not to the nuts and it's a pretty weak straight draw I still prefer to check the turn.

SparkyDog

08-26-2005, 03:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I doubt you'll take it down with a turn bet. (I don't think SB is folding whatever he 3-bet with preflop very often in this big pot -- at least not yet.) Could a bet perhaps set up a river steal on a blank, though? That could be asking for a lot, but with such a big draw, you don't need that much folding equity to make pursuing a steal worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the way SB played his hand it's pretty clear he has a good made hand. After coming this far, it's doubtful that he'll just give up for one bet in a 12BB pot. I think it'd be better to try and bluff when nobody's showing weakness. It's always better when bluffing to represent a hand, not just strength, and there's not many hands to clearly represent when bluffing on this board given the PF action.

Digs

08-26-2005, 03:23 AM

Why doesnt the straight scoop ~99%?

I dont see how anyone gets here w/o the 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Nick C

08-26-2005, 03:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, I doubt you'll take it down with a turn bet. (I don't think SB is folding whatever he 3-bet with preflop very often in this big pot -- at least not yet.) Could a bet perhaps set up a river steal on a blank, though? That could be asking for a lot, but with such a big draw, you don't need that much folding equity to make pursuing a steal worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the way SB played his hand it's pretty clear he has a good made hand. After coming this far, it's doubtful that he'll just give up for one bet in a 12BB pot. I think it'd be better to try and bluff when nobody's showing weakness. It's always better when bluffing to represent a hand, not just strength, and there's not many hands to clearly represent when bluffing on this board given the PF action.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what it's worth, SB's flop checkraise could be an attempt to protect a vulnerable made hand or even to get heads-up with his AK (which might have Hero beat).

As for what we're representing, couldn't we have a hand like A9/TT here, or even a set?

Anyway, I've never actually played 5/10 6-max, and I don't know how likely we are to be able to steal the pot with a turn bet followed by a river bet. I suspect not very. A lot of things would have to go right for that to happen.

I was kind of just throwing the idea out there.

wackjob

08-26-2005, 03:28 AM

The only reason I think it is possible for SB to fold is because you read him as a TAG. A TAG can make a good(bad) fold whereas your typical fish cannot. When you totally miss on the river your only chance of taking the pot down is a bet & fold. Combine that with the chances you have of completing: flush, OESD, or the possibility that a pair of aces on the river might give you a winner & I'd prefer to bet the turn. As I'm sure you can tell, I'm a bit more LAG than your average 2+2er, but it works fine for me.