Hitting your miracle card in a big pot [Archive]

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Solovon

08-26-2005, 02:06 AM

After reading Ed Miller's post about being aggressive in big pots, I tried to apply that here. Obviously the hand worked out well for me, but I'm concerned about my flop play. Should I have capped it when I had the chance? Looking at the hands my opponents mucked, I had a ton of live outs on the flop and I probably should have capped it. I was concerned about not having a club and the fact that someone might already have two pair or trips. Is that too weak for a pot this size or is calling the flop 3-bet a better play?

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+2 calls $0.75 (All-In), MP2 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls $0.75 (All-In), MP2 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (26.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players, 2 all-in)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 32.25 BB

Hojglad

08-26-2005, 02:09 AM

Not betting the flop at all is a better play. Honestly, what are you trying to accomplish by betting into a field of 80 people with A high? Capping the flop here would just be spewing. Chances are, someone out there has a flush draw (looks like CO from the way stuff panned out). This makes 2 of your A and K outs dirty or unavailable. You could also be reverse dominated by something like AJ, KJ, AQ, or KQ. Just check and peel and then turn the nuts. Your "strategy" may have been optimum given the results of THIS HAND, but in general, betting and then capping this flop is terrible, especially since you are out of position.

closer2313

08-26-2005, 02:14 AM

I wouldn't lead this flop into 4 people with ace high. Everything else looks good to me. Remember to discount your overcard outs. Also the T clubs is dirty. I would say you have about 6 outs on the flop because of the flush draw + 2 broadway straight cards.

bozlax

08-26-2005, 02:23 AM

You can't cap this flop. You're worse than 4:1 to make your hand by the river, including discounted overcard outs, and you've only really got 3 opponents (one guy is all-in, 25 cents short of actually being able to call the first raise), so your bets aren't for value. With the pot the size it is, I think betting out is fine, and you can call the 3-bet, and hope that UTG doesn't cap.

Aaron W.

08-26-2005, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After reading Ed Miller's post about being aggressive in big pots, I tried to apply that here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't there some sort of provision about have a decent hand? Ace-high in a 5-handed pot doesn't qualify.

bottomset

08-26-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After reading Ed Miller's post about being aggressive in big pots, I tried to apply that here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't there some sort of provision about have a decent hand? Ace-high in a 5-handed pot doesn't qualify.

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on if you got the newest version of the pattern mapper

nomadtla

08-26-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at the hands my opponents mucked, I had a ton of live outs on the flop and I probably should have capped it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is results orriented thinking. What your opponents had does not matter as to whether your play was right.
On this flop you have 3 really clean outs the non /images/graemlins/club.gif T's. So we'll say 3.5 outs for the straight. As for your overcards any A or K might complete someones straight, and if they're a /images/graemlins/club.gif you're in a huge mess. I'd give 2 outs total for your overs. You have 0 fold equity against this many players. I don't think I'd even lead this flop, you have 5.5 outs (and that's generous) with 4 other players (1 almost all-in) this is not a value bet, a bet that ties you to the pot maybe (but that doesn't make it a strong lead IMO). I'd still check this flop cause we honestly got very little of it. When it comes two back to you (which we'll assume it would), you'd be getting something like 22(cause of strange all-in .5SB):2 or 11:1 which is enough to peel with you're 5 - 5.5 outs. So I'd just call here, ecspescially since one player is allready all in so he can't put in any more making a raise deffinately not for value. I really question the flop lead but other than that I think you played this well. So I think you did a fine job. Capping this flop accomplishes nothing for you that I can see.

[ QUOTE ]
I was concerned about not having a club and the fact that someone might already have two pair or trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are reasonable concerns (though a little weak-tight) but you have the outs to call. Basically Ed is saying we need to stay in big pots if we have the odds for it and a reasonable chance of winning, but I don't think (and I may be wrong here) that he'd advocate bloating pots just cause their allready big when we haven't made our hand yet and don't have a strong enough draw to bet it for value.

Edit: for math error and to say "dang it I made to long a post and everyone else allready said what I wanted to."

Harv72b

08-26-2005, 03:34 AM

All respect to the previous posters, but I like leading the flop here. Hero 3-bet preflop from OOP, which shows great strength. Two of his opponents are short-stacked. The pot is easily big enough that he'll be calling 1 or even 2 bets with his gutshot + overs. So put it on your opponents to define their hands, or get out of there with underpairs & the like.

Yes, Hero is almost always behind vs. this big a field on a flop of this nature, but leading can buy him outs, it can fold a backdoor that might redraw or end up chopping with Hero, and it feeds the pot for his own draw to the nut straight. And it can disguise his hand so that people don't catch on that he turned a straight so quickly. That said, no way do you cap when it comes back raised & 3-bet (and nobody has folded yet).

Hojglad

08-26-2005, 03:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
All respect to the previous posters, but I like leading the flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you want to pay one or more small bets to see the turn here? Wouldn't it be preferable to check and get a free card, or get to see the turn for one small bet instead of 3? 2 instead of 3? I understand what you are saying about folding backdoor draws, but with implied odds, backdoor draws should be calling our lead bet here. Also, another thing you didn't consider is the possibility of being reverse-dominated on the flop. Betting this flop is just asking for trouble when we have exactly air in this situation.

Entity

08-26-2005, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
All respect to the previous posters, but I like leading the flop here. Hero 3-bet preflop from OOP, which shows great strength. Two of his opponents are short-stacked. The pot is easily big enough that he'll be calling 1 or even 2 bets with his gutshot + overs. So put it on your opponents to define their hands, or get out of there with underpairs & the like.

Yes, Hero is almost always behind vs. this big a field on a flop of this nature, but leading can buy him outs, it can fold a backdoor that might redraw or end up chopping with Hero, and it feeds the pot for his own draw to the nut straight. And it can disguise his hand so that people don't catch on that he turned a straight so quickly. That said, no way do you cap when it comes back raised & 3-bet (and nobody has folded yet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Harv,

With all due respect, I think a lead here is pretty bad. On a twoflushed twostraighted board your equity with 2 tenuous overs, 1 gutshot, and no backdoors is very slim. I really want to avoid bloating this pot any further.

Rob

08-26-2005, 03:51 AM

Well, this hand has two parts to it: you're drawing to a straight, and you have overcards. Capping the flop takes away EV from your chance of hitting the straight: you're decreasing the odds the pot's giving you.

You should c/c (if a bet and raise get to you) or possibly c/r (if pot is too small), depending on what villains do. Also, an A or K won't work, b/c MP2 raised PF and came out aggressive here, so he probably landed trip Qs or Js (this is assuming you check and action comes back to you after MP2 bets/raises, so this logic is chronologically correct).

Once you hit this ten, you're set. I'm loving the check/3bet here--its a read-dependent move, but these guys are VP$IP a lot so you could've counted on a bet to you at the very least.

Anyway, I digress. I'd consider a c/r on the river as well since MP2 is playing aggro (so you could possibly get more bets out of him), but the normal bet is fine here for value.

-AC