Predicting Roulette

[markreed]

Is anybody interested in roulette prediction computers? I have been building them for 10 years now. If you have any questions about what they can or cannot do, ask me a question at deleted ad.
Has anybody used a computer to beat poker before? A few years ago I checked with a lawyer to find out if detecting the nature of other people's cards (or the casino's) was legal, and they said it wasn't, so that's a no no! These days most things are possible, but it's just a question of the means and the motivation.

- Mark

[RiverMel]

How much have you lost over those 10 years? Also, if your system works why would you share it with others rather than keep it quiet and make your billions that way?

Also, what are you going to do when Apple Computer sues you for a copyright violation for calling a handheld computer "The Newton"? Thanks.

[markreed]

Very valid questions!
Over the 10 years, I made enough to start my own business (in something other than gambling), which has lasted for 5 years now. We were never professional players, since we were far better at being computer-building geeks than high-roller look-alikes. Professional roulette requires a lot of dedication and is not for everyone. That is one of the reasons why we want to offer this type of prediction technology to the hobbyist as well as the professional. The latest hand-held computers are far cheaper and more reliable than our old hand-made affairs. Therefore we can offer them for sale to the public over the internet.

For me, a roulette prediction computer is still a fun night out, but nowadays, I call it testing!

The Apple Newton is dead! I know it is because mine has been sitting in the corner under a cover of dust now for 4 years! Calling a roulette computer a Newton is more of a tribute!

- Mark

[Clarkmeister]

"Professional roulette requires a lot of dedication and is not for everyone."


ROFLMFAO, this is the funniest thing I've read on these forums, bar none, EVER. Go back in your hole you freaking snakeoil salesman. Hey, why don't you sell us your limited edition "Professional Craps Player" package while you are at it. Bwahahahahaha, professional roulette player, that's freaking funny. This isn't the 1930's with biased wheels all over the place. And we aren't retarded. Get a life and go away.



Mat, please delete his links, but leave the rest of this clown's post up so he can get the ridicule he deserves.

[B-Man]

I sincerely doubt that anybody who reads this forum is stupid enough to buy a roulette-predicting computer.

[Anadrol 50]

What a joke. He should be banned for advertising his crap.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Does that mean I can't advertise my lottery picking computer?

[David Steele]

I believe in roulette predicting computers, though I have no idea what this advertisement is for.

The kind of machine described in the book the Eudaemonic Pie
by Bass, really can work though it did not work for them that well.

The idea is to predict a slightly better number to bet on after the ball is rolling using physics calculations. You don't have to improve your odds very much to make the bet profitable.

I have reliable information from someone who made a lot of money a while back with just such a system.

D.

[Ulysses]

Clarkmeister,

You know I respect your poker advice and always look forward to your posts. However, you are really off the mark with this one.

I bought one of these computers about a year ago and since then have made $7.2 Million playing roulette semi-professionally. I only wonder how much I would have made in the same period had I been focused on the task and really dedicated to perfecting my skills.

I understand that it might sound impossible to someone without a PhD-level mathematics background, but let me put it to you in language you might understand. It works, baby! The proof is in the pudding, and let's just say there's a lot of pudding at my house as a result of this incredible invention.

So, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Don't let anyone keep you from pursuing your dream. With a little effort and this computer, anyone can become a guaranteed winner at roulette.

You haven't heard much about this because the gambling industry has done its best to quash all information about this. However, this forum will finally get the word out. You better get one soon, since I predict roulette as a casino game will be non-existent in one year after I and fellow users bust a couple of big casinos.

Hope this helped.

[Clarkmeister]

Wow Ulysses, that's pretty nice. At the very least you are a better man than I, since after I made the first $1million of my $7.2million profit for the year, I would quit my day job. Thus my "semi-pro" $7.2mm job would be sadly forced to become a $15mm full time gig. Your dedication to your other endeavors is admirable. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

I didn't know you could place a bet after the ball is rolling. Is that true? If so, then at least *theoretically*, you could predict which numbers might be favored. However, I'm still skeptical because wouldn't you need to be able to judge the ball's speed, angle, position, etc. extremely accurately? How do you do that? And if you're just a bit off, wouldn't chaos theory take over and make it impossible to determine the bias?

[Clarkmeister]

Its easy. You just ask the pit boss for an electrical outlet for your computer so you can set up shop.

[David Steele]

".... extremely accurately"
You only need to increase your chances a little bit.

"wouldn't chaos theory take over"

Actually the book I mentioned was about chaos theory as well.
The people involved were chaos researchers from UC Santa Cruz.


D.

[David Steele]

Luckily there are advances in computer technology in the area of miniturization.

The person I know, did this in the 1980's, it would be much easier now. Even so you do risk being beaten up by security guards.

D.

[Fitz]

Now, now now.....

Never underestimate the stupidity of others; you will be constantly disappointed. As for me, my mood ring has turned black, my pet rock just lays there, and the tribbles I ordered appear to be dead. At least those pink flamingos in the front yard look sharp!!!

[J.A.Sucker]

I'd be curious if there would be a casino brash enough to think that roulette couldn't be beaten and would allow you to use the computer, provided you didn't touch the table in any way (preventing the use of some sort of optical sensors).

FWIW, I think that you could successfully clock roulette wheels in some fashion, and this would probably be enough to eliminate the 3 required #'s to give you a phat edge. There are some high-speed cameras today that are very sensitive and could give sharp images of the wheel/ball positions for which one could do analysis of wheel/ball/air friction, gravity, tilt effects, and the like. I suspect that many parameters would very wildly throughout the day, such as when the A.C. comes on in the casino (and when different vents were on or off). Obviously, the casino would never let you set up a series of laser interferometers to measure the ball position or whip out some fancy camera either, so this is all a moot point, but I still find in fun to think about. However, I could imagine a situation like Thorp's original card-counting escapade where the casinos dared him to beat BJ and he did. Maybe you could convince the Bellagio to arrange the "Nerd vs. Wheel Challenge" and have it all filmed on the Travel Channel... must see TV for sure!

That said, I'm not buying the computer /forums/images/icons/frown.gif

[Dynasty]

I didn't know you could place a bet after the ball is rolling. Is that true? If so, then at least *theoretically*, you could predict which numbers might be favored.

Yes, you can place a bet for quite a while after the ball is in motion. After about 5-8 seconds, the dealer will wave his hand across the table to announce "no more bets".

I haven't bothered to read the advertisments in the initial post. However, with the proper equipment, it used to be possilble to beat roulette. Here's what you need to do.

1. Take a picture of the roulette wheel with the ball in motion.

2. Take a second picture of the roulette wheel when the ball has made exactly one revolution from you previous picture. The ball must be in the exact same location.

3. With the two pictures (showing both ball and roulette wheel numbers), calculate the speed of the ball travelling in one direction and the roulette wheel spinning in the other direction. This allows you to precisely calculate where the ball will fall into the trough (is that the right term?).

Of course, the casinos know this. Many years ago, new roulette wheels were developed which caused the balls to "act funky" when they fell into the trough. They roll around alot at upredictable speeds and angles. Therefore, you can predict where the ball will fall. But, that doesn't give you any advantage in determining where the ball will end up.

Even if you had an ideal roulette wheel, the use of such equipment would seem to be illegal and certainly against house rules.

[William]

I have a real bargain for you good people:

A beautiful miniature handmade crystal ball, created using the secret formula of the very famous Madam Zelda from the heart of the mysterious Central Europe. It elegantly fits in any pocket, discretely vibrating when the magic number is founded. For an insignificant extra cost, it can be engraved with golden or silver initials, making this masterpiece from the darkness the perfect present for your loved ones.

Available in several astonishing and elegant pastel colours.

For more information and prices (Mention this add and you will obtain a "special price only for you" bargain) please contact me at:

NoNoIamNotaCrook@PleaseTrustMe.com

PS: 2+2, Keep your nasty hands off my link!! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[andyfox]

About a hundred years ago, an American named William Nelson Darnborough apparently used this method in Monte Carlo. It is reported that Darnborough "commenced to stake his money when the croupier commenced to spin." He won some $400,000. He died in 1958 at the age of ninety and tok the secret of how he beat the roulette wheel with him to the grave.

I got this info. from a book called "The Money Spinners" by Jacque Black.

[andyfox]

http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/articles/247.html

[William]

Nonsense, Darnborough passed his secret to Madam Zelda and all of its magical and mysterious essence can found be in our faboulous crystal ball.

See my previous post for more amazing information !!! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[CreamPuff]

Yes. Great book.

The wheel has to have a bias for something like this to work.

Most casino's re-calibrate their wheels regularly.

[markreed]

Sorry to cause a fuss! A computer geek being accused of being a snakeoil salesman! That's a first!

The principle of working out where the ball will go is quite simple:
1. Time the revolution of the ball.
This will tell you how many spins the ball has got to go, and hence how long it will take until it lands in the wheel.

2. Time the revolution of the wheel.
This will tell you which number the ball will hit when it hits the wheel.

3. Add an estimate of how far the ball will bounce.
This is the random bit, but the ball can never bouce to all the numbers around the wheel with equal probability. Since the house edge is so small, you will tend to win.

The casinos know this and could make the wheels actually random by not allowing players to bet after the ball is spun. However, throwing chips at the table at the last minute is the most fun part of playing roulette, so that option is out.

Look at it this way...we went to the moon in 1969. Your telling me we cannot work out where the ball is going to end up around a roulette wheel in 2003?!!!

[crazy canuck]

I think casinos monitor for electronic equipment used by players, so using the computer wouldn't work.

[Lee Jones]

As somebody else pointed out, "Eudanomic Pie" (I spelled the first word wrong, for sure) goes into great detail about the technology. It's actually relatively straightforward.

1. If you can be even as sure as something like "There is a 20% chance it will fall in this octant", you have a money printing machine. And, in fact, the layout is such that it's dead easy to bet octants.

2. The use of such a computer is a felony in Nevada (didn't used to be, but they eventually caught up with the times). You won't get beaten up by security guards - much worse, you'll get thrown in some state pen.

3. I suppose that some people have the eye-brain coordination to do these calculations in their head, on the fly. If such a person exists (and I presume that at least a handful do [1]), then the courts would almost certainly rule that they are not breaking the law by doing it [2].

4. None of this addresses taking advantage of unbalanced wheels, which is, shall we say, an area of particular research interest to the +EV gaming crowd.

Regards, Lee

[1] If Stephen Hawking, Yo-Yo Ma, and Tiger Woods exist, then surely a few of the multiple billions of us on the planet could do this parlor trick.

[2] It would seem to be completely analogous to card counting, which the courts have consistently ruled is legal.

[Ed Miller]

I love how you footnote your posts... /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Jimbo]

Lee,

You made some good points with your post, particularly the one outlining the capability to visually estimate the octant where the ball will fall . I use a similiar trick when I am at Sams Town in Tunica. There is a roulette dealer who has spun the wheel for over 20 years. He is like a machine, when I am tired of poker I just sit at his table and watch his release and bet the 5 numbers opposite of where he releases the ball. It will not make you rich but I am able to book a tidy win each time I am there, well usually enough to cover my poker and craps losses! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[William]

The Crystal Ball Inc. hereby apologizes to Rain Man.
Sorry mate, but business is business !

Sorry to you as well Lee, I just can't take you seriously. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

I think this is more like predicting the weather or predicting an earthquake than going to the moon. We still can't predict when tomorrow's rainstorm is going to hit with much accuracy. Many times it ends up sunny. There are too many variables. I have the feeling predicting where that little ball will end up poses similar problems.

[markreed]

You forget that these days, everyone has a computer in their pocket. Only they are normally called mobile phones. And they are constantly trying to send signals to a radio mast 10 miles away!
Some UK casinos monitor radio traffic and I have heard anecdotal evidence that FM transmissions can be detected from within the casino.

[markreed]

Yes but its analogous to the casino always giving you 3 to 1 odds on it raining each day. If you blindly bet each day, you will end up losing (except in Scotland). But if you have a quick glance at the weather forcast, even the one on cable with the topless weathergirl, you will come out on top (so to speak).

- Mark.

[LondonBroil]

Listen up everyone! There is no need to go out and spend all your hard earned cash on a roulette predicting computer. I will tell everyone right here, right now, the secret to making millions on roulette. It's a little known secret that the number 20 comes up 3.1% of the time on a standard roulette wheel.

All you have to do is bet 20 every time and your on E-Z street!

[BruceZ]

This has been described in various places. Sklansky's Getting the Best of It describes how such a system would work. I'm fairly confident that I could build the system he describes. I would use a small computer circuit housed in one's pocket to drive a wristwatch display. As someone mentioned, people carry computers around in their cell phones, watches, and palm pilots. A button would indicate when the ball or wheel passes a certain point. Sklansky points out that it is only necessary to eliminate 5 numbers to have a 9% edge.

Since this is possible, the probability that this poster has one is non-zero, but small only because it is much easier to create a fake system than working one. Since the probability is non-zero, it should be postitive EV to purchase this system since the amount you can win would overcome the small probability of it working. Of course this assumes you ignore the legal issues.

I don't see what would make the wheel chaotic. A chaotic system generally contains non-linearities, and has the property that an increase in one variable causes an increase in another which in turn causes a decrease in the first variable. Chaotic systems are truly unpredictable because starting conditions must be known to infinite precision which is impossible. This is why the weather is unpredictable beyond a few days. It may still be possible to rule out certain numbers even if the system were chaotic. If you wanted to create a completely unpredictable game, this could be done with a chaotic system. For example, you could have a spherical pendulum, basically a metal ball on a string that can swing in any direction, and a magnet on each number. Of course this could also be accomplished with quantum mechanics, but this wouldn't be as "fun" since you can't actually see a neutron decay for example.

[Punker]

The problem Lee, is that not only do these people have to do the calculations, but they also must then place their bets within the required time. Most people I know who I could theoretically imagine learning to make this calculation don't have the hand eye coordination to make these bets.

[felson]

Since the probability is non-zero, it should be postitive EV to purchase this system since the amount you can win would overcome the small probability of it working.

On the other hand, if the system doesn't work, figuring this out could cost you a lot of money.

[BruceZ]

Testing is free! Except for your time.

[felson]

Aha, you are right. My mistake.

[Cyrus]

"I think [predicting Roulette] is more like predicting the weather or predicting an earthquake than going to the moon. We still can't predict when tomorrow's rainstorm is going to hit with much accuracy. Many times it ends up sunny. There are too many variables. I have the feeling predicting where that little ball will end up poses similar problems."

Trying to predict the precise spot (number) the ball will land on, indeed involves a number of variables so great that it effectively becomes impossible. The condition of the tiles separating the numbers (height, wear, etc), and the real possibility that each can cause a very diferent rebound on the ball, is just one such inhibiting factor.

But we don't need to be so exact, as others in this thread have pointed out! We are not supposed to win at Roulette by betting a single number straight up. If we can only exclude a few numbers with certainty, we are betting with an edge. And the variables needed for that prediction are not too many. The fact, for example, that the ball starts descending from the wheel's rim with the same (escape) velocity every time, and irrespectively of the force in dealer's initial throw, is just one of the factors on our side which a qualified engineer would incorporate into his Roulette gizmo.

[BruceZ]

Also, if you had device that only eliminated 5 numbers, giving you a 9% edge, one of those numbers should come up more than 1 time in 8 if the device didn't work. So it shouldn't take long at all to verify that the numbers it says never come up.