Any logic behind this guy's set weakness? [Archive]

View Full Version : Any logic behind this guy's set weakness?

GoCubsGo

08-25-2005, 09:44 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($50.45)
BB ($46.65)
UTG ($27.60)
UTG+1 ($22.15)
MP1 ($54.10)
Hero ($49.75)
MP3 ($5.25)
CO ($20)
Button ($85.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, CO raises to $2, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1.

Turn: ($10) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $7, CO folds, UTG+1 calls $7.

River: ($24) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, UTG+1 calls $8.

Final Pot: $40

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has 8d 8s (three of a kind, eights).
Hero has 4s 4d (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $40. 

I was really surprised to see what he had here. There are very few hands that beat him, and based on my play, I can't possibly have them. I was going to the felt with this one thinking he was donking Ax or maybe he had 2pr. Is there any reason you can think of for him to check call this river or should I add him to my buddy list?

-Skeme-

08-25-2005, 09:45 PM

He's a passive wuss.

wtfsvi

08-25-2005, 09:55 PM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
There are very few hands that beat him, and based on my play, I can't possibly have them.

[/ QUOTE ] I think 67 makes perfect sense. Why can't you have that? (I'm not saying his call in the end isn't incredibly weak; there's lots of other stuff you can have too.)

Spaded

08-25-2005, 09:59 PM

He was slowplaying until his cat nudged his arm at the wrong moment and he hit "call"

MINETZ

08-25-2005, 10:23 PM

you couldve bet the utrn with qj... just kidding, the answer is becuase hes bad, today i check raised the flop with top 2 and bottom set just calledm e down the whole way, the flush came in on the river and saved me a big bet, some opponents just dont feel comfortable without the stone cold nuts.
Noah

theben

08-25-2005, 10:24 PM

you are just lucky he didnt play his hand better.

kongo_totte

08-25-2005, 10:33 PM

Raise the flop, pot the turn, bet more on the river. You should have lost more on this hand.

4_2_it

08-26-2005, 10:47 AM

To quote Arnuld, "You both played that hand like a couple of girlie men."

Seriously, you hit the flop you wanted and you min raise on the flop? Pot it at least, a stronger hand will (or should)re-raise, many weaker hands will call. Do not be afraid to push with this hand, your flop bet looks like it could be a symptom of Fancy Play Syndrome. Be careful.....

Over time, your set over set losses and wins will even out.

Komodo

08-26-2005, 02:49 PM

You got away cheaply there. I admire your instincts for not betting more on any street.
I cant think of any reason for him to play like this. Being afraid of top set or gutshot is usually not the best way to play poker.

elus2

08-26-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I admire your instincts for not betting more on any street.

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately it seems like hero plays his sets like this all the time.

GoCubsGo

08-26-2005, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop, pot the turn, bet more on the river. You should have lost more on this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I strongly disagree with this. What draw am I trying to block on the flop? I'm kind of tired of posts sayng bet the pot, raise more, etc. Where do you guys play because I want to go there! PSB are called 10% of the time. If I raise on this flop, 3/4 of the time everyone folds. What hand calls a PSB on the river that I beat? That is horrible advice. These guys don't understand pot size or odds or any of that. Most of them will sooner call a $10 bet into a $5 pot than a $20 bet into a $30 pot. When I make pot size bets and raise every time I know I have the better hand, I look at my stats and see something like this:

Pots won at showdown: 2 of 3
Pots won without showdown: 23

You need to reel these fish in. You can't just beat them over the head everytime you have a hand and expect them to call with tpwk. Some of them, yes, but I've seen a lot of players fold an ace on a board of A83 when I have 33. I don't mind taking s small pot with a good hand on a drawing board, but on when my opponents have very few outs, I'm going to keep the bets at a level they will call., whether that is 1/3 of the pot or the whole pot.

wtfsvi

08-26-2005, 03:56 PM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
If I raise on this flop, 3/4 of the time everyone folds.

[/ QUOTE ] If a pot sized raise/bet takes it down 3/4 of the time (where do you play? I wanna go there ) you should make a pot sized raise/bet every time the action is on you. With any two cards. Then tighten up when they start calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

kongo_totte

08-26-2005, 03:59 PM

I agree, this is a safe board, but you have flopped monster in a 6-way pot, build that pot. The rason you raise is not to protect, it is to build a pot. If someone have anything to pay you off with, they are likely to have it on the flop. What hands do you hope someone will hit on the turn that they will pay you off with? Hit their A-kicker? I say people are just as likely to hit there gut shot as they are to improve to aces up.

Turn: UTG represents some form of weird draw. If he calls $7, he'll call $10.

River

Same thing as the turn. If he has something that will call $8, he will call $12-15.

GoCubsGo

08-26-2005, 04:35 PM

I know this is only heads up, but here's an example of what happens 15x a day. I HAVE to raise because there's a flush and and inside straight draw, but I KNOW he's going to fold, despite just making a 1/2 pot bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($18)
Hero ($48.50)
SB ($29.75)
BB ($66.95)
UTG ($49.70)
UTG+1 ($48.50)
MP1 ($17.50)
MP2 ($39.05)
MP3 ($50.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets $3, Hero raises to $8, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: $16.75

It seems when I get greedy and try to milk these guys, the're showing down hands like A8. You can't be overaggressive or they fold almost everything. And to the poster who suggested I try raising with any two cards - I bet almost every hand I'm in. They just fold the bad ones and call with the good ones. It has no effect on the amount of action I get because nobody pays attention. I do bet and raise most pots though, when I think there's a chance even a slight chance they don't have a huge hand. I win about half the pots I enter. (Looking at my current session, I have seen 27 flops, 8 from the BB. Of those 27, I have won 20 pots without showdown and 3 with showdown.) I make about half my money $1.50 at a time. It's easy to buy pots but hard to extract when you have something. That's why I get frustrated when I post a hand and get flamed for not making a PSR which has no chance of getting called.

08-26-2005, 04:50 PM

This guy just goes on your buddy list.

I also think in the later discussion you make some valid points about the difficulty of building pots. More often than not, your best hands go begging for action. This has been my experience, too. My general rule is to increase the % of the pot I bet on each street, or with each successive bet. So, say I am leading the flop when I have hit a set. I will typically bet half to two thirds, depending on lots of things like texture. If I get called, the turn will be a psb. If I get raised and I reraise, it will usually be a pot-sized reraise. In other words, I try to induce a call on early streets and if I get customers, I just keep tightening the screws.

But, most of the time, you are right, the action goes I hit my set, checked to me, I bet half the pot, 2000 limpers fold.

4_2_it

08-26-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's why I get frustrated when I post a hand and get flamed for not making a PSR which has no chance of getting called.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not getting flamed. Most of the posters are pointing out that you are giving worse hands correct odds to call. If can tell your opponent has a weaker hand without a read then bet accordingly, but in most cases how sure will you be?

As far as your OP goes, every good poker player loses a lot of money on the short side of set over set and that is just the way it is. If not, he is not playing his set optimally.

Why slow play a set? Who folds to a 2/3 pot bet on the flop but bet/calls on the river? I can think of 4 examples --- 1) Villain catches straight (U lose) 2)Villain catches flush (U lose) 3) Villain catches full house (U lose if you are not top set) 4) Villain catches two pair (U win, but how much?) Players with TPTK and Two Pair will call or raise you on the flop.

I suggest you read some the posts on Fancy Play Syndrome, because slow-playing strong hands in hopes of somebody catching a second best hand is not an optimal play over the long run. You will think everyone is sucking out on you while you are giving them proper odds to call you down.

TheWorstPlayer

08-26-2005, 04:57 PM

Buddy list, he hates money.

GoCubsGo

08-26-2005, 05:06 PM

What's there to suck out on a A84 board? Admittedly, I used to suffer from FPS before coming here, but I no longer do. Typically I do not slow play sets because of what you said. If somebody is going to put money into a pot, it's likely they have something on the flop and will call a bet. However, in this particular situation, somebody with TPWK may fold to a big raise. Usually I think I like to get another bet of him on the turn before he gets scared away. Sometimes he'll even think he's committed, and sometimes he makes 2pair on the turn.

TheWorstPlayer

08-26-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm kind of tired of posts sayng bet the pot, raise more, etc. Where do you guys play because I want to go there!

[/ QUOTE ]
Party Poker (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3243143&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

4_2_it

08-26-2005, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What's there to suck out on a A84 board? Admittedly, I used to suffer from FPS before coming here, but I no longer do. Typically I do not slow play sets because of what you said. If somebody is going to put money into a pot, it's likely they have something on the flop and will call a bet. However, in this particular situation, somebody with TPWK may fold to a big raise. Usually I think I like to get another bet of him on the turn before he gets scared away. Sometimes he'll even think he's committed, and sometimes he makes 2pair on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was your thought process for this hand only and not the typical way you play a bottom set, then I have no issue with your line.

My advice was put forth assuming this was a standard play on your part based upon my read of your OP and a couple of your follow-ups. I stand corrected.

I too am a FPS addict and have completed the 2+2 12 step program. However, I am cognizant that I could easily slide back into this trap if the right circumstances present themselves.

GoCubsGo

08-26-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm kind of tired of posts sayng bet the pot, raise more, etc. Where do you guys play because I want to go there!

[/ QUOTE ]
Party Poker (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3243143&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[/ QUOTE ]
God I can't wait. I need to set up a checking account, then a Neteller account, then get my PSO gift set up, and I will be there. Can I realistically expect an increase in my win rate by switching sites?

elus2

08-26-2005, 07:12 PM

if you don't build up a pot when your equity is around 85%+ when do you build it?

Malachii

08-26-2005, 09:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]

God I can't wait. I need to set up a checking account, then a Neteller account, then get my PSO gift set up, and I will be there. Can I realistically expect an increase in my win rate by switching sites?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell yes you can

Komodo

08-27-2005, 06:48 AM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />

God I can't wait. I need to set up a checking account, then a Neteller account, then get my PSO gift set up, and I will be there. Can I realistically expect an increase in my win rate by switching sites?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell yes you can

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I logged in to take a look at the 25$ table. 3min later i saw one player raise 4xBB to 1$. all folded around to BB who called. flop TJK. preflop raiser bets 20$ into the 2$ pot and got called in split a second. preflop raiser shows JJ and takes the pot. No idea what the idiot had.