Over pair facing over bet.

[kongo_totte]

Villin is unknown.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($104.10)
UTG ($102.90)
UTG+1 ($104.25)
UTG+2 ($100)
MP1 ($319.48)
Hero ($99)
MP3 ($99.20)
CO ($105.35)
Button ($109.60)
SB ($121.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $5.

Flop: ($14.50) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, MP1 calls $12.

Turn: ($38.50) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($38.50) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $80</font>,Hero....?

Bet the turn anyone?

[stu-unger]

wow this is a nasty spot.

im not really sure what the hell to do here. i think without a read i fold but there are a few problems with this. first i cant put villain on a hand. second when we check the turn we r going to induce some bluffs. i do like the to check through this turn as it seems like a clear i have a hand and a redraw i dont want to get blown off my hand situation. i think i fold the best hand here a lot though.

[fimbulwinter]

fim

[kongo_totte]

What does n/t stand for?

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
What does n/t stand for?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it means next time

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does n/t stand for?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it means next time

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/ooo.gif How did he know?

[DyessMan89]

Pre-Flop- Fine.
Flop- Fine
Turn- Yup, Im leading this for 15 bucks on the turn
River- Wow, thats tough. My instinct tells me slowplayed flush, 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif maybe. Check/call flop, check turn, lead out on river with a massive bet is really fishy. Cant put him on the straight, unless he was chasing with a hand like 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I fold this, regret it, but still fold it.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
What does n/t stand for?

[/ QUOTE ]

No Text... ie the entire content of the message is in the title.

[kongo_totte]

I puked, and thought, and puked, and thought and called. Then I puked some more.

He had 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif and MHING.

[ajmargarine]

Preflop and flop play are fine. I am betting the turn though. Checking there just opens the door for a bet you can't/shouldn't call on the river. Which this may or may not be.

PS. Did you move up a level?

lol you played it pretty good... when reading the post I thought to myself of the possibility of a runner runner straight possibility, but then decided that would be very very hard to put him on...so considering the situation I might have called like you. Obviously your only mistake here was slowing down on the Turn, because otherwise he probably would have folded to a big enough bet....(hopefully!)

[kongo_totte]

I believe checking the turn is the right play. I'll elaborate later.

I planned to call any bet on the river, and by amy bet, I mean any reasonable bet, like up to pot-sized. I did not expect his river bet, and quite frankly, I was clueless.

EDIT: AND yeah, I moved up. Got tired of all the bitching about "why are you still in the 50s" as an answer to all of my posts :d.

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
What does n/t stand for?

[/ QUOTE ]

"no text" (in the actual post)

you had him in position right? he checked the turn, and it looked to me like he wanted a free card... which he did because he had the flush and straight draws....so I am not seeing how checking the turn could be a good move since it gives him a chance to outdraw. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but looked to me from your description like he was looking for free cards... and finally got one. Splain it to me lucy.

[jkkkk]

I bet the turn, I think you'll see A /images/graemlins/club.gif too many times here to let them draw for free.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: AND yeah, I moved up. Got tired of all the bitching about "why are you still in the 50s" as an answer to all of my posts :d.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just when I move up, great, how many 2+2'ers are there playing 100NL anyway?

[stu-unger]

why does everyone like betting this turn? i think if we had 2 red kings i would bet this turn but if we are behind we dont want to get blown off of our redraw. and if we are ahead we shouldnt get called by anything we beat. am i missing something?

[jkkkk]

What about the reverse implied odds of letting A /images/graemlins/club.gif draw against our K /images/graemlins/club.gif when we have the best hand?

I only said to bet the turn because from his description led me to believe (i guess my read) that he was chasing something. If it was a harder read during the actual playing out of the hand though then thats another story I guess..

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the reverse implied odds of letting A /images/graemlins/club.gif draw against our K /images/graemlins/club.gif when we have the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand what u r saying but this is the only hand we should be worried about at all that we are ahead of. plus we have position and we shouldnt be laying substantial implied odds to the A /images/graemlins/club.gif. besides i want the A /images/graemlins/club.gif in there so they can miss 3/4 of the times and maybe bluff 1/4 of those times.

[kongo_totte]

First of all, there is one card in the deck I have to protect against, the A /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Second, since I know nothing about him, I will have to assume he is an average NL100 player (info on him of course would be better, but this is like my 3rd hand). I believe the average player is unlikely to limp-call an off-suit A. A strong ace is likely to raise in the first place, and a weak ace is likely to fold to the raise, unless it's suited. If it's a suited A I am up against, I have nothing to fear or I am in a world of sh*t.

What people do limp-call with is PP:s and SC:s. A PP is likely to be in on the turn if it has setted up (if he has not, I really don't gain anything by betting the turn anyway). If he has a set, he is check-raising the turn. I check to take a free card.

If he has a SC, I am way ahead or way behind.

The texture of the flop makes a straight draw unlikely (or so I thought /images/graemlins/laugh.gif).

So basically, I have nothing to protect against.

So reason 1 I checked the turn was that if someone is drawing, it is likely to be me.

Reason 2 (less important) I checked the turn is value.

Few hands that I beat will call a turn bet (except for Ac, which I think he is unlikely to have).

Alot of hands I beat may VB or bluff the river if I check the turn.

Thoughts?

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: AND yeah, I moved up. Got tired of all the bitching about "why are you still in the 50s" as an answer to all of my posts :d.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaah, yes, this i the correct time to move up. screw bankroll and skill concerns- bow to peer pressure!

fim

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
.....Few hands that I beat will call a turn bet (except for Ac, which I think he is unlikely to have).

Alot of hands I beat may VB or bluff the river if I check the turn.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, yeah. Skip 100NL and go straight to 200NL. This is pretty good reasoning. I need to wrap my brain around this some more. Good post.

If the river bricks, are you value betting on the end then if he checks to you?

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]


If the river bricks, are you value betting on the end then if he checks to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, yeah. Skip 100NL and go straight to 200NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I still called, didn't I /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I like villain's call on the flop. Runner runner straight draw is really undervalued. Seriously, I think you played the hand well, but the river call is definitely questionable. I think you fold to that bet on the river and find a better spot. There is too much out there to call a bet that is double the pot with just one pair.

[jsnipes28]

I think that checking the turn is very sensible and +EV by inducing all of those blufffs. More importantly, I think that it is an easy river fold. I find massive overbets to be the 2nd nuts a lot of the time against average opponents. Think to yourself if you would call with bottom two in this spot, when that is debatable or leaning towards no, "one pair" is an easy fold.

Yesterday playing this situation came up.
4 See the flop after a 3Xbb raise
Hero J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button
Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero checks
Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG bets $3 (pot is ~6) MP calls, CO folds, Hero calls
River: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
UTG bets 40 (pot~15) Hero raises to ~70 all-in.
UTG calls and shows A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for three of a kind aces.

Lengthy example, but when there is a flush and a straight on the board, and you have neither, a massive overbet dictates a fold.

Just my 2 cents-
John

[ QUOTE ]


Few hands that I beat will call a turn bet (except for Ac, which I think he is unlikely to have).

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly,thats why i bet so that underdog cards arent getting a free river in a chance to take a big pot, which happened here. im betting the turn and putting pressure on him. if a typical opponent flops a set hes raising the flop. he doesnt want the four flush card to drop on the turn because then he needs to fold.

[kongo_totte]

I think letting an opponent draw to 3 outs is heavily outweighed by the positive aspects of checking the turn.

[wtfsvi]

Checking behind on the turn is absolutely the only play here.

So is folding the river. I'm surprised he only had the straight. I think you'll be shown the nut flush a healthy % of the time there, and some other (totally butchered) flush quite often as well. I think this bet is a flush more than 50% of the time.

[kongo_totte]

I agree folding is the right play, but I don't think it's that clear. Remember, the turn check is partially designed to induce river bluffs.

[wtfsvi]

Yes, I know. But double pot sized river bets are almost never bluffs. And on top of that, they have to be bluffs more than 2/5 of the time to make the call corret since they are so big.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know. But double pot sized river bets are almost never bluffs. And on top of that, they have to be bluffs more than 2/5 of the time to make the call corret since they are so big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. I disagree that 2Xpot river bets are almost never bluffs. In my experience, the more insanely big the bet, the more likely is it to be a bluff. Of course, the odds I get to find out get worse aswell. As I said, I think this is a fold, but I also think it's pretty close.

FWIW, he made alot of over bets later in the game that infact were bluffs. Hindsight is 20/20.

[wdeadwyler]

Sorry to sounds tupid. What does mhing mean?

[wdeadwyler]

nm read the lingo post.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry to sounds tupid. What does mhing mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

My Hand Is No Good.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know. But double pot sized river bets are almost never bluffs. And on top of that, they have to be bluffs more than 2/5 of the time to make the call corret since they are so big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. I disagree that 2Xpot river bets are almost never bluffs. In my experience, the more insanely big the bet, the more likely is it to be a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

a little piece of advice for you as you move up:

what you said here is likely not true in the 100 game and certainly not true above it.

fim

[amoeba]

good play up to the river.

reevaluate on the river.

I say that at the 100 level, huge 2x pot overbets are 75 percent a made hand and 25 percent a bluff.

besides, you thought the lone A clubs unlikely so what is he bluffing with here?

[yvesaint]

Huge overbets are almost always near-nuts - the pre-flop all-in after a raise is usually AA or KK, hoping that whoever's holding QQ can somehow talk themselves into calling. Same thing with river overbet pushes - some people just like to reason their own messed up math that if someone calls just ONCE it makes up for all their lost value bets.