When Does Peyton Become an Option?

[Sluss]

Getting ready for my oldest Fantasy League this weekend. This is the 10th edition of this league. There are 6 guys who have been in the league for all 10 years. 4pts for a passing TD, 6 for Rec/Rush TD, 1 point for every 10 yards rec/rush, 1 point for every rec, 1 point for every 25 yards pass, 1 point for every 5 comp. QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,DEF

With LT, Alexander, Holmes and Edge filling up my top four would it be a bad idea to pick Peyton Manning with the fifth pick?

I've been thinking that I want my first three rounds to be all running backs. If I can get 3 of the top 15 RB I can skirt some injuries, byes and bad play (maybe get a good trade if all three stud up) and I think there are enough WR and QBs to fill in nicely in the next three rounds.

But the allure of Manning still exists. If I draft Jamal Lewis with the fifth pick come back and get a Jones (Julius or Kevin) and take Lamont Jordan or Steven Jackson in the third, I feel like I would be stacked at RB.

If I take Manning with that pick I still get a Jones and Jordan or Jackson. The problem is I'll be filling that third RB with Thomas Jones or JJ Arrington.

I have some numbers to run on these scenarios. But I'd like to get a general feel first.

[CollinEstes]

I would probably lean toward Duece and then go for T. Green in the 5th round or Plummer in the 6-7.

Of course there is news that Benson has sold back his house and moved his two cars back to Texas so Tom Jones might be a viable 3rd back that you could probably land in the 5-6th.

[JayLear]

I have the first pick in my draft Saturday, so my mind is already made up. But if I had the second pick, I would have to give serious consideration to taking Manning there over Holmes. And if I were third or below, I'd most likely be taking Manning with any of those picks. In my estimation there's a much bigger drop off between Manning and whatever QB you'd get in the third or fourth rounds than there would be between Alexander/James and whatever RB you can snag in the second and/or third round. I think it's right to focus on getting good runnign backs -- let's face it, good running backs win these things, right? But if it's about production, Manning out-produced most of the running backs in the NFL last year, if not all. My league happens to have almost an identical scoring system as yours, and I believe he was the top scorer in our league in '04.

If LT is the consensus #1 in most leagues, Manning has to be up there as well.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course there is news that Benson has sold back his house and moved his two cars back to Texas so Tom Jones might be a viable 3rd back that you could probably land in the 5-6th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Benson was at Halas Hall today and met face-to-face with Bears GM Jerry Angelo. What that means, I don't know.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
In my estimation there's a much bigger drop off between Manning and whatever QB you'd get in the third or fourth rounds than there would be between Alexander/James and whatever RB you can snag in the second and/or third round.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just reading a very interesting article on this on Footballoutsiders.com (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=2813&cat=4)

[CollinEstes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Of course there is news that Benson has sold back his house and moved his two cars back to Texas so Tom Jones might be a viable 3rd back that you could probably land in the 5-6th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Benson was at Halas Hall today and met face-to-face with Bears GM Jerry Angelo. What that means, I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hadn't heard this I picked up Tom Jones late for one of my teams so I am hoping Benson keeps this up.

[Sluss]

Not to hijak my own post, but being a Bears fan what the hey. Benson will have to eventually sign. It is not possible he will want to go into the draft next year with a new CBA that could have rookie slots and then there is no way that a team is going to take him earlier than the first round. So he will be losing MUCH more than just the difference between $18 million and the $17 million the Bears are offering.

Jones was always starting for the Bears. I don't think there was ever going to be a time where Benson would be getting enough carries to be a viable fantasy option. Even if he got into camp early and was a stud he would have been splitting carries.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
Benson was at Halas Hall today and met face-to-face with Bears GM Jerry Angelo. What that means, I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hadn't heard this I picked up Tom Jones late for one of my teams so I am hoping Benson keeps this up.

[/ QUOTE ]
As a life-long Bears fan, I hope he ends this foolishness quickly. That said, I still think Jones is a decent sleeper. Benson will see little or no camp before the season opens, so it will be a while before he sees the field.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to hijak my own post, but being a Bears fan what the hey. Benson will have to eventually sign. It is not possible he will want to go into the draft next year with a new CBA that could have rookie slots and then there is no way that a team is going to take him earlier than the first round. So he will be losing MUCH more than just the difference between $18 million and the $17 million the Bears are offering.

Jones was always starting for the Bears. I don't think there was ever going to be a time where Benson would be getting enough carries to be a viable fantasy option. Even if he got into camp early and was a stud he would have been splitting carries.

[/ QUOTE ]
I strongly disagree with this statement -- if Benson is in camp on day one -- or even a week into camp -- he's the #1 guy, carrying the load.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
But if it's about production, Manning out-produced most of the running backs in the NFL last year, if not all. My league happens to have almost an identical scoring system as yours, and I believe he was the top scorer in our league in '04.


[/ QUOTE ]
Peyton having a career year averaged 28.9 points per week

LT injured and having the worst year of his career averaged 20.7

And in Priest Holmes's 7 1/2 games he averaged 28.1 That guy is an absolute Fantasy ANIMAL when he is healthy.

[The Armchair]

In a ten team league, I like Manning #4. I'd definitely take him at 5, and it's not even close.

Even everyone takes a RB, you're fine. Need proof? OK. In no particular order (well, there is one, if you can find it):

McGahee, Davis, Jamal, Rudi, Tiki, and Julius Jones round out the first.

The next six picks (before yours) are, say, Portis, Westbrook, Ahman, KJones, and Curtis Martin.

You take Corey Dillon.

The next six picks (bringing you back to your pick) are LaMont Jordan, Carnell Williams, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, DeShaun Foster, and Michael Bennett.

You take Chris Brown. Or Jerome Bettis. Or Mike Anderson. Or roll the dice on Ronnie Brown or Cedric Benson. Or maybe you just take Randy Moss.

What I've given you is the worst case scenario. After you take Manning, no one takes anything other than a RB. No one -- not even the three guys who already have two RBs. No one takes Randy Moss or Daunte Culpepper.

In other words, it's not happening. But even if it does, you're fine.

[BadBoyBenny]

4 P. Manning, IND QB
17 T. Barber, NYG RB
24 C. Johnson, CIN WR
37 T. Bell, DEN RB
44 M. Clayton, TAM WR
57 C. Williams, TAM RB


My ESPN public league draft. 4th overall pick.
I didn't realize Mike Anderson was at the top of Devner's depth chart, but to make up for it I got Carnell with the 57th pick.

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
4 P. Manning, IND QB
17 T. Barber, NYG RB
24 C. Johnson, CIN WR
37 T. Bell, DEN RB
44 M. Clayton, TAM WR
57 C. Williams, TAM RB


My ESPN public league draft. 4th overall pick.
I didn't realize Mike Anderson was at the top of Devner's depth chart, but to make up for it I got Carnell with the 57th pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

QED

[Josh W]

If my math is right, with this scoring, Culpepper woulda outscored Peyton by nearly a point/game last year in this format.

How many points Peyton scores vs. RBs is worthless. If your two options are:

RB
RB
RB
QB

or

QB
RB
RB
RB

then what matters is (QB first round + RB fourth round) vs (QB fourth round + RB First round). IF you can get Deuce in the first and Trent Green in the 4th or Peyton in the first and Carnell WIlliams in the fourth, that's the math you need to do.

Josh

[tolbiny]

"Culpepper woulda outscored Peyton by nearly a point/game last year in this format"

The format always matters- but Culpepper's worst three games last year were all without Moss. a full season without him there is quite a decent range for his production this year.

[Josh W]

I'm certainly not trying to imply that Culpepper is going to outperform Peyton this year. Just pointing out that Manning isn't so far ahead of the fantasy competition.

In this league, with 1 pt. for every 5 completions, a guy like trent green is huge...remember, peyton flirted with breaking marino's yardage record....but green ended up with more yardage than peyton.

Don't fall too much in love with manning just because espn does.

Josh

[DeucesUp]

With passing TD's only worth 4pts, even getting 1 pt per 5 completions, Manning has to be downgraded to #10-15 pick. I wouldn't consider him at all with #5 pick. If your scoring was 6 pts per passing TD I WOULD consider him #5. It seems like a small difference but will probably cost him 5 fantasy points per game (last year it was 6 FPs/game). This moves him (and all QB's) way down in value.

And I hope you were kidding about taking Jamal Lewis with the #5 pick. Getting 1 point per reception, you've got to get pass-catching backs. Tiki, Dom Davis, McAllister should be upgraded while Lewis, Dillon & Alexander have to be downgraded.

If the guys you mentioned are gone, take McAllister at #5 and hope you can get Tiki in the 2nd look for Westbrook (another great pass catching RB) in the 3rd.

[Sluss]

Because last year was record setting, I will slightly drop Peyton's numbers for this year to have him average 25 PPW. Peyton's bye week is week 8 so I would have to select Drew Brees, or Brian Griese (SD vs. KC, TB vs. SF) so I would hope I can expect 20 points that week. The second level of QBs that I would be drafting from in the 5-8th round will average 18 PPW.

For the purposes of this model I will say that out of the RB 5-15 that I can get an average of 17 PPW. From 15-20 I would drop that projection to 12 PPW. Assuming that I would get 8 games of two soild running backs and 6 games with the third stringers.

So in a 14 week season with Peyton Manning the total points scored would be 791 or 56.5 PPW. With a about 8 shots at 59 points total for a week and possible low of 49 points in week 8.

In a 14 week season with a solid QB and three top 15 RB the total come to 728 or 52 PPW. This would be a pretty consitent 52.

So taking Peyton with the 5th pick could net me +3 to 6 points each week.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
And I hope you were kidding about taking Jamal Lewis with the #5 pick. Getting 1 point per reception, you've got to get pass-catching backs. Tiki, Dom Davis, McAllister should be upgraded while Lewis, Dillon & Alexander have to be downgraded.

If the guys you mentioned are gone, take McAllister at #5 and hope you can get Tiki in the 2nd look for Westbrook (another great pass catching RB) in the 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like McAllister this year. I don't like the way they Saints use him when they are losing and between a bad defense, Jim Hasslett and Aaron Brooks I think they will be trailing alot.

Shaun Alexander had only 11 less catches than Deuce and he had more than enough yards and TDs to make up that difference. Yes D Davis and Brian Westbrook are very high on my draft board (7 and 9 respectfullly).

I am a bit stuck on where to place Jamal Lewis. If he is 2000 yard Jamal Lewis he will be scoring 21 PPW, if he is gimpy sore ankle, drug trafficing Jamaml Lewis he is only scoring 13 PPW. I put him somewhere in between with about a 17 PPW average. Which is about equal with Davis and Westbrook, but with a higher upside if he is realy coming to play.

I'm also not a big Tiki Barber fan this year, but only because of his tendency to have a down year after a big year. Sure he'll still catch some balls, but those long TD runs are not as frequent and his TD numbers end up on the low side.

[Punker]

[ QUOTE ]
Benson, a running back out of Texas who was the No. 4 selection overall, showed up at Halas Hall and met with general manager Jerry Angelo, but there were no negotiations. Benson's agent, Eugene Parker, was not present. Benson stayed for about half an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't sound like it meant very much at all.

[JayLear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Benson, a running back out of Texas who was the No. 4 selection overall, showed up at Halas Hall and met with general manager Jerry Angelo, but there were no negotiations. Benson's agent, Eugene Parker, was not present. Benson stayed for about half an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't sound like it meant very much at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

He showed up unannounced -- it meant something. My guess is he'll be under contract by the final pre-season game. What that means as to when he'll be actually available, I don't know.

[Sluss]

In what would be a bit of karma I did draw the fifth pick.
My draft ended up like this:

1.P Manning
2.B Westbrook
3. L Jordan
4. R Wayne
5. Roy Willliams
6. Larry Johnson
7. Tatum Bell
8. Vinatieri
9. Bears D
10. K McCardell
11. B Griese
12. R McMichael
13. Sammie Parker

Some roster notes: You must draft a back-up QB, RB, WR and you must draft a Kicker and defense. In round 7 the 9th tight end was chosen. At that point I knew my last four picks and knew all of those guys would be there. So I drafted my Kicker and Defense.

Here is the scoring if you didn't read the OP

[ QUOTE ]
Getting ready for my oldest Fantasy League this weekend. This is the 10th edition of this league. There are 6 guys who have been in the league for all 10 years. 4pts for a passing TD, 6 for Rec/Rush TD, 1 point for every 10 yards rec/rush, 1 point for every rec, 1 point for every 25 yards pass, 1 point for every 5 comp. QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,DEF

Defense gets 10 points for a shutout. 1 point per sack, 2 points for an int, 6 point for special teams/defense TD, 3 points for blocked kicks


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not real happy with the way my WR situation worked out. I would give myself a C+.

[DeucesUp]

Decent draft. I still think #5 is too early to take Manning with only 4pts/passTD, I wouldn't consider him until at the earliest #8. Who was available at #5? You said previously you didn't like McAllister, but I still would've gone with McGahee or Davis. Mistake IMO.

Westbrook might've been available in the 3rd judging by most sets of rankings, but he should be an absolute stud in a 1pt/reception league, so I don't have any problem taking him in the 2nd.

Was Jordan the best RB available in the 3rd? No Steven Jackson? Ahman Green? These guys could very well be off the board by round 3 and if so then it's a solid pick because the dropoff after these guys is pretty severe. Curtis Martin and Rudi Johnson are a couple of other guys who might've been around who I would've taken ahead of Jordan, but I'd put them in pretty much the same class.

WR's definintely aren't great, but your 2 starters will be servicable. I'm surprized WR's were going so early, especially for only 2 starters, they won't be that important with this roster set up.

Excellent awareness that no more TE's would be taken and that McMichael would be available in the 12th. That's thinking on you feet.

I'd agree with your overall grade, perhaps even a little harsh.

[wayabvpar]

FWIW- I had the first pick in a draft this past weekend and took Peyton first. However, the scoring in the league is such that QBs are almost always the highest scorers (6 pts/TD, extra points for long TDs thrown, caught, or run). I was very tempted by LT, but Peyton is A) more likely to play all 16 games and B) more likely to go deep into the playoffs (league runs through the Superbowl). I think SD is going to fall off this year, although they might still win the weak AFC West.

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]

Because last year was record setting, I will slightly drop Peyton's numbers for this year to have him average 25 PPW. Peyton's bye week is week 8 so I would have to select Drew Brees, or Brian Griese (SD vs. KC, TB vs. SF) so I would hope I can expect 20 points that week. The second level of QBs that I would be drafting from in the 5-8th round will average 18 PPW.

For the purposes of this model I will say that out of the RB 5-15 that I can get an average of 17 PPW. From 15-20 I would drop that projection to 12 PPW. Assuming that I would get 8 games of two soild running backs and 6 games with the third stringers.

So in a 14 week season with Peyton Manning the total points scored would be 791 or 56.5 PPW. With a about 8 shots at 59 points total for a week and possible low of 49 points in week 8.

In a 14 week season with a solid QB and three top 15 RB the total come to 728 or 52 PPW. This would be a pretty consitent 52.

So taking Peyton with the 5th pick could net me +3 to 6 points each week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't seen this calculation for drafting Manning #5 and quite honestly I don't entirely follow it. But the problems I see with it are:


#1 You selected your Manning fill-in to score 20pts/game yet you only gave 2nd tier QB's 18/game. This seems a little biased. I'd argue that 2nd tier QB's will score more like 19 and you could push it up to 20 by getting a couple of decent QB's and playing the match-ups.

I really didn't follow the RB math, but you seem to be saying that for 8 games you'll score the same with your RBs if you draft them at #5,#16 as you will if you draft them at #16, #25. How do you figure this? Somehow drafting RB's later only hurts you 6 weeks out the year? I don't get it.

Here's how I'd look at it (note that the #16 pick is used for the same player in both cases. With Manning he is RB#1, with other QB he is RB#2, so he cancels out):
<ul type="square">
Manning + RB#2 (picked #25) = 25+14 = 39/game
QB(6th round) + RB#1 (picked #5) = 19+19 = 38/game.
[/list]


but this isn't the only consideration. In the 2nd scenario, you get to pick your RB#3, WR#1 &amp; WR#2 in the 3rd, 4th &amp; 5th rounds. With Manning, you pick these player in the 4th, 5th, and 6th, hence all of these players will be upgraded if you go RB in round#1. I really believe you're costing yourself a few points/week by taking Manning at #5 with this scoring format.

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW- I had the first pick in a draft this past weekend and took Peyton first. However, the scoring in the league is such that QBs are almost always the highest scorers (6 pts/TD, extra points for long TDs thrown, caught, or run). I was very tempted by LT, but Peyton is A) more likely to play all 16 games and B) more likely to go deep into the playoffs (league runs through the Superbowl). I think SD is going to fall off this year, although they might still win the weak AFC West.

[/ QUOTE ]

In almost all scoring systems, Manning should not go #1. It's not how many points he scores, but how many points he scores relative to the other QB's. Now if your league allows 2 starting QB's or something else unusual, then it can make sense.

Going through the superbowl is just weird. What happens? So 1 guy in the fantasy championship game has, say David Givens and the other guy has no players from either of the super bowl teams, so Givens catches 1 pass for 15 yards and player #1 wins the fantasy league championship 1-0. Funny.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
Decent draft. I still think #5 is too early to take Manning with only 4pts/passTD, I wouldn't consider him until at the earliest #8. Who was available at #5? You said previously you didn't like McAllister, but I still would've gone with McGahee or Davis. Mistake IMO.


[/ QUOTE ] The first four were exactly as I had planned LT,Priest,ALexander,Edge. McGahee didn't go until 9,Davis went 8th

[ QUOTE ]
Westbrook might've been available in the 3rd judging by most sets of rankings, but he should be an absolute stud in a 1pt/reception league, so I don't have any problem taking him in the 2nd.


[/ QUOTE ] Between the scoring and Eagles fans he would have been gone.

[ QUOTE ]
Was Jordan the best RB available in the 3rd? No Steven Jackson? Ahman Green? These guys could very well be off the board by round 3 and if so then it's a solid pick because the dropoff after these guys is pretty severe. Curtis Martin and Rudi Johnson are a couple of other guys who might've been around who I would've taken ahead of Jordan, but I'd put them in pretty much the same class.


[/ QUOTE ] This is where things got close. I really wanted both Jordan and Jackson in these two spots. Then I would have been real happy with my draft. I really like Steven Jackson. I would have been sporting if I got him in the fourth.

Rudi Johnson went the pick before me and Curtis Martin went at the top of the next round.

I like Jordan better than Martin, but really that is just the age of Martin (yea, yea I know who cares he puts up numbers) and the scoring (read:receptions) that Jordan will have with his team winging the ball around in the second half after he spends the first half running.

Ahman Green went in the first round (I think he had last year's draft book) /images/graemlins/blush.gif.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
#1 You selected your Manning fill-in to score 20pts/game yet you only gave 2nd tier QB's 18/game. This seems a little biased. I'd argue that 2nd tier QB's will score more like 19 and you could push it up to 20 by getting a couple of decent QB's and playing the match-ups.


[/ QUOTE ]

The "second seven" last year averaged between 16 and 20 points, thus I averaged out 18. It's hard to judge who I would have got and where, but I think 18 is reasonable.

The reason I give my backup a good number is because of who I was targeting as Manning's back-up. I was picking Drew Brees or Brian Griese. SD vs. KC and TB vs. SF. I think those two QBs can put up 20 there. At least that's what I'm hoping for. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I really didn't follow the RB math, but you seem to be saying that for 8 games you'll score the same with your RBs if you draft them at #5,#16 as you will if you draft them at #16, #25. How do you figure this? Somehow drafting RB's later only hurts you 6 weeks out the year? I don't get it.


[/ QUOTE ] This is hard to explain. Since there were only 6 running backs who started every game last year there is a pretty good shot one or both of your running backs are going to be hurt. Throw that in with a bye week and I think you have your top two #1 backs for about 8 weeks out of the year barring anything catastrophic. Then six weeks with one of your #1 backs and your #3 back.

I'm saying there will be 15 quality backs that I want. The top four will average 20+ PPG. 5-15, in my mind will average about 17. Some could be more some could be less. With the way the league drafts I know that the top 15 backs will be available in the first three rounds, but probably not in the fourth. This ended up being true.

[ QUOTE ]
I really believe you're costing yourself a few points/week by taking Manning at #5 with this scoring format.

[/ QUOTE ] You may be right. I hope not. /images/graemlins/frown.gif But, it is very close in my mind. I will point out that in a draft I have next week (with basically the same format) I would not pick Peyton in the first round if I had the fifth pick, because I know the top 15 RB will be gone by the third round.

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I give my backup a good number is because of who I was targeting as Manning's back-up. I was picking Drew Brees or Brian Griese. SD vs. KC and TB vs. SF. I think those two QBs can put up 20 there. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I figured, but then to be fair you need to assume that can also improve your "2nd tier" QB by a point or 2 every single week by having 2 #8-#18 QB's and picking the better match up.

[ QUOTE ]
This is hard to explain. Since there were only 6 running backs who started every game last year there is a pretty good shot one or both of your running backs are going to be hurt. Throw that in with a bye week and I think you have your top two #1 backs for about 8 weeks out of the year barring anything catastrophic. Then six weeks with one of your #1 backs and your #3 back.

I'm saying there will be 15 quality backs that I want. The top four will average 20+ PPG. 5-15, in my mind will average about 17. Some could be more some could be less. With the way the league drafts I know that the top 15 backs will be available in the first three rounds, but probably not in the fourth. This ended up being true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's hard to guess with any precision how individual players will do, so I understand why you've grouped them, but when your approximations suggest that a RB#5=RB#15 and RB#15=RB#20 you're clearly biasing your results towards taking RB's later in the draft because you're assuming no dropoff. I prefer using some kind of a steady dropoff, i.e. RB#5=19/game, RB#8=18/game, RB#12=17/game, RB#15=16/game etc. Now of course I can't say that Domanick Davis will outscore Jordan by 5/game, but that would be my best guess.

I don't think byes/injuries really change the relative scoring, if anything I think it would work in favor of drafting RB in round #1. First, when Manning is out, you have a huge dropoff. With 2 "2nd tier" QB's you have little to no dropoff at QB when your "starter" is out. 2nd, look at the RB's: When Westbrook is out you either have Davis&amp;Jordan(~33pts) or Jordan&amp;Bell(~25pts). If Jordan is out you either have Davis&amp;Westbrook(~37pts) or Westbrook&amp;Bell(~29pts). When Davis is out you Westbrook&amp;Jordan either way. So, it seems that byes/injury weeks are going to be A LOT better if you go RB in round#1. I still didn't quite follow your math, but it doesn't seem you were comparing apples-to-apples. It seems you were assuming that if you drafted RB early you would have injuries, but if you drafted them later you wouldn't.


Anyway, I will concede that it is somewhat close, and Manning isn't a terrible pick, but I'll stick to my guns that I think a RB would have been a slightly better choice.