Drawing inside in O/8

[Theodore Donald Kiravatsos]

It is my perception that the reason that many new players fail at Omaha is that they play the game like it's hold'em, and then wonder why they get drilled. What I am trying to fight in myself is approaching non-routine situations as if the situation were hold'em.

Now in Hold'em, when the pot odds are there, you happily (or grudgingly) draw inside to a straight, nut or otherwise. Here's a hand where I drew inside to the broadway on the flop. It seemed to be routine and nothing particularly special about it, but the more I considered it, I wonder if there isn't more to it. Here goes:

My hand was A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 24T (rainbow).
There was an EP raise, a call by a player defending a post, I called in the cutoff, the loose-passive button called, and the BB called. The SB folded, and let's just say that was the rake for this hand and make the calculations simple.

10 small bets in the pot.

Flop: Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/club.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif
Raiser bets, and I call, thinking 11-1 odds on a gutshot to the absolute nuts is OK. Button calls, as does BB. 14 small bets, or 7 big bets in the pot.

Turn: 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif
EP bets, and I call going low for 3.5-1 odds going low, plus 3 outs for high which I've abandoned hope on. Simple enough.

River: J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif and I fold. Button wins with his KQJ4.

Now here's where I got to thinking.
In Hold'em, when you draw inside, you are usually planning that your hand will be good if you make it. I was drawing to the nuts here, but suppose I fill? What are the guarantees I'm left with the nuts on the river in Omaha? If I fill on the turn with any card other than Ks, a flush draw presents itself on the turn as it did here. And no matter what card I fill inside with, the board could pair, leaving me with a shambles of a hand.

So my concerns are this:
Do I need pot odds of higher than 10-1 (or much higher implied odds than usual) to draw inside here, because

a) My hand could easily be ruined on the river by a flush card or the board pairing.
b) I may not scoop even if I'm left holding the nuts on the end. This was of particular concern to me, because when this happens, you get your pot odds cut in half...
c) I won't get any action with it anyway if I fill.

I thought that these drawbacks were somewhat counterbalanced by the runner-runner draw to the A-2 low.

Does anyone have any rules of thumb that they keep for drawing inside in Omaha? Never? Only with secondary draws such as I had here? Only when also holding top set plus the nut flush draw and the nut low made?

All comments and criticisms welcome.

"Your excuses are your own" -- Richard Roma

[Buzz]

Richard - Interesting post.

Hand. A24Tn is not great, but seems playable here.

Flop. QJ4. Rainbow? Let’s assume it is. Otherwise I don’t think you have a favorable draw here.

Looking ahead two cards, let’s say you’ll make a straight or better and the board won’t flush or pair roughly 121/990 and you’ll make low another 160/990. This is a difficult point. How do you count the halves without knowing how many opponents will continue on the next two betting rounds? To keep it simple, I generally estimate them as worth approximately 0.3 of a scoop. (That’s taking into account the quartering effect for low). In that case you have about 171/990 or converted odds of about 4.8 to 1 against you for scooping. Those “converted” odds don’t matter for the next bet, but are just to get an idea of your chances after the flop of winning in the next two cards. Looks good enough to tag along, at least for the next bet, but let’s look more closely at the odds on the next bet.

Let’s temporarily ignore the low here. As you point out, the board can later pair or flush. Accordingly, the four kings are really only worth about 2.5 outs rather than 4 outs. If we use 42.5 to 2.5 to figure the odds against catching a winning king, the odds are about 17 to 1 against catching a winning king

Here’s my reasoning for the 2.5 outs for the kings:
Looks like three kings are each worth 25/44 outs while the fourth king is worth 33/44 outs.
3*(25/44)+1*(33/44) = 2.45. Looks like you have about 2.5 outs for kings after the flop.

Assuming a call behind you, you’re only getting 13 to 1 pot odds. If your only hope is catching a king, it doesn’t look like you have favorable odds to call here, even if you include implied pot odds. But you do have some other chances, if you include back door hands. You like 44, 22, AA, and A4 for high. You like 35, 36, 37, 38, 56, 57, 58, 67, 68, and 78 for low. How many outs are all these runner-runners worth?

16 (for high) + 160*.3 (for low) = 64.

Maybe 1.5 outs? If we make them that much, we have to ignore considerations of implied pot odds (on the other side of the scale). If so, the hand odds against you are 41 to 4 or a bit more than 10 to 1 against you.

Assuming a call behind you, you’re getting 13 to 1 pot odds. Since the pot odds are better than the hand odds against you, you have favorable odds to call here. (You wouldn’t have favorable odds without the runner-runner low possibility).

At this point, I think you have to accept that if you miss catching a king on the turn, you have made a favorable odds bet, but have lost your bet. Period.

I wrote “period,” but of course you may have another chance to draw after the turn. If you do, you simply have to compute the odds all over again.

Turn 8. You wrote that you had 3 outs here, so let’s assume there are two cards of the same suit on the board at this point. In that case, you have 3 outs for the nut high and 16 outs for the nut low. Again we have the same problem as above of adding the low outs to the high outs. I’ll use the same 0.3 factor and add 5 to 3 to get 8 “converted” scooping outs. 44-8 = 36. Then 36/8 = 4.5/1. I can rough out these odds in my head in a game (but the ones above would be impossible for me to figure in a game - you just would have to kind of know ahead of time, IMHO). Now the pot: you’re facing a 1LB bet with a pot of 7LB. Pot odds are 7 to 1. Since the pot odds are greater than the “converted” hand odds against you, you clearly have a call.

You have to accept that you’ll usually lose this bet (call). However, you’ll win often enough that you have favorable odds to make the call.

“River: J and I fold. Button wins with his KQJ4.”

Right. You lost. You knew you usually would, and you did.

“ Now here's where I got to thinking.
In Hold'em, when you draw inside, you are usually planning that your hand will be good if you make it. I was drawing to the nuts here, but suppose I fill? What are the guarantees I'm left with the nuts on the river in Omaha? If I fill on the turn with any card other than Ks, a flush draw presents itself on the turn as it did here. And no matter what card I fill inside with, the board could pair, leaving me with a shambles of a hand.”

There aren’t many guarantees after the flop in Omaha. But I think I included the chances of your being left with a shambles of a hand when I used 2.5 outs rather than 4 outs for the kings. Note that if you didn’t have the runner-runner nut low draw going for you, I don’t think you would have favorable odds for a draw after this flop. But, considering the back-door low possibilities after the flop, along with some (admittedly remote) chances for miracle high-making cards on the turn and river, I think you do.

“Do I need pot odds of higher than 10-1 (or much higher implied odds than usual) to draw inside here”

Not here, I think, because you have 160/990 chances for the back-door low. But otherwise, I think yes.

“I thought that these drawbacks were somewhat counterbalanced by the runner-runner draw to the A-2 low.”

I agree.

‘Does anyone have any rules of thumb that they keep for drawing inside in Omaha?”

I do now.

“Only with secondary draws such as I had here?”

I don’t like “only,” but, yes, I think the secondary draws you have here are sufficient.

“Only when also holding top set plus the nut flush draw and the nut low made?”

Wow! I don’t think you need all that much.

Just my opinion. I’m always sorry it’s so long, but I don’t know how to shorten it without omitting something that seems pertinent.

Buzz

[Theodore Donald Kiravatsos]

Thanks a million for your insight. The practice of defaulting to Hold'em logic when confronted with an unfamiliar situation again proves to be deficient.

I'm going to use 15-1 as my minimum pot odds for drawing inside (4 outs to the nuts, for a scoop) from now on, unless I have other secondary draws or back door opportunities working.

[iblucky4u2]

Buzz, you amaze me with your in-depth analysis - awesome!

One question - if the flop was QJ3 instead of QJ4, how would that change the odds of the back door low draw?

[Buzz]

Hi iblucky4u2 - Thanks for the compliment. Working on this stuff is something I enjoy doing when I have the time - and maybe I’m gradually improving my game by thinking about some of it.

At any rate, if the flop was QJ3 rather than QJ4, there would be 240/990 (rather than 160/990) two-card back-door low combinations. In addition, 52 (rather than only 16) of the two-card low combinations would be possible scoopers, enabling low straights for A24Tn.

The double effect (greater back-door low possibility plus greater scoop possibility) probably would add another out (or so) on the flop. Not a whole lot of difference, I suppose - but makes calling a bet a bit more favorable. And of course the counterfeit protection is great for your blood pressure (makes playing the hand less stressful).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[iblucky4u2]

[SossMan]