Bankroll Thought, not how much money, how many hands before moving up?

I see people asking about when they have enough to move up, but for me, the money is not the problem the confidence in skill is.

I am beating 0.50/1.00 6 and 10 max quite a bit (about 4 bb/100 for 6Max and 3 bb/100 for 10 max), this is over 50,000 hands. I am up (per Poker Tracker) about $1800. In addition to this I have rakeback and bonuses, that push me up closer to $4k. Needless to say I have plenty of roll to move up, however, when I get a 75bb downswing my confidence goes to hell and I don't. I am thinking about putting in another 25,000 hands at 0.50 / 1.00 (likely almost all 6 Max) before I move up.

Now the thinking part of this, I 4 table most of the time, so I will play those 25,000 hands in the next month.

If I am going to go by bank roll alone,

- and even only by the poker winnings, not Rakeback or bonus,

- AND clear out of my accounts all but the $1,000 needed to maintain a 500bb roll for 1/2,

- AND am able to beat it at 2.5 bb / 100

Then I will be ready for 2/4 after only 20,000 hands. That is less than a month.

So my question is, how quickly can skill develop? What is your minimum # of hands at a level before you would move up? Also,what effect do you think multi-tabling has?

I am thinking that it would take 50k - 75k hands. I also wonder if you are better off two tabling a level higher than 4 tabling a level lower.

Margon

[sam h]

I would move up as quickly as possible from that level. There is just a huge opportunity cost to playing tens of thousands of hands down there when you have the roll and perhaps the ability to be playing at least 3-6. There is a very good chance that you are just setting money on fire every time you get in front of a computer.

Be aggressive, take shots, and understand that 75BB downswings and much worse will happen at every level to the best players. This is also the way to get better faster. How much can you learn by pounding .5/1 and 1/2 for 50,000 hands each.

The reason that I ask is that it seems I make a LOT of my winnings from people that are really bad. I don't think I am very good, but it is the really bad people that seem to feed me. I will get a nut flush or a nut straight, or a FH, and people will cap.

I am thinking that there may not be that many of these people as I move up, so I have to learn more about grinding out the 3-5 BB pots, which I don't think I do to well now.

Any thoughts?

Margon

[sweetjazz]

It depends on the player. I generally spent about 10K hands at each limit I played at before moving up. But I had two factors in my favor. First, I played in a home game for a year with players who were tougher than the typical microlimit players, so I learned a lot from them. When I started playing 0.5/1 on Party, I was already crushing the game, so the 10K hands were primarily for building a bankroll and tweaking my play in large loose games to maximize EV. Second, I generally multitable less than a lot of people here, so I suspect I learn more per hand than some others do.

So far, my recreational poker career has consisted of:
10K hands at 0.5/1 full before moving up
5K hands at 1/2 full and 5K hands at 1/2 6max before moving up
10K hands at 2/4 full before moving up
10K hands at 3/6 full before moving up

Right now I am playing 5/10. Because I have noticed that my play has stagnated a bit and because I think there are some new strategy aspects that I need to develop, I have decided to play about 25K hands at 5/10, 10K at the full ring game and 15K at the 6max game. I am about halfway there so far, and I will reassess whether I am ready to move up when I near the 25K hand mark.

For me, this has been the right pace. The most important thing for me is that I am always constantly analyzing where I am and trying to decide what I should be doing in as objective a way as I possibly can. So far, I have been able to avoid deluding myself into thinking I am better than I am and to avoid convincing myself to stay back when I am ready for a new challenge.

So my main advice is: do what you feel is comfortable and make sure you are being honest with yourself. After that, I think things will fall in place.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
I am thinking that there may not be that many of these people as I move up, so I have to learn more about grinding out the 3-5 BB pots, which I don't think I do to well now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am thinking that most people aren't naturally very good in these situations. The only way to learn is to get experience, combined with self-analysis after the fact.

If you are ready to move up, then move up. When you are at a new level, play 1 table. You should be thinking and trying to figure out what is going on; eventually you will learn to beat the new level on autopilot playing multiple tables. That's when you'll know you're ready to start 1-tabling a new limit.

Good luck.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason that I ask is that it seems I make a LOT of my winnings from people that are really bad. I don't think I am very good, but it is the really bad people that seem to feed me. I will get a nut flush or a nut straight, or a FH, and people will cap.

I am thinking that there may not be that many of these people as I move up, so I have to learn more about grinding out the 3-5 BB pots, which I don't think I do to well now.

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never played online below 5-10 for an extended period, so I don't know the intermediate steps that well. But the way to improve your game is to play against some better players, as well as to keep reading these boards. Think about it this way: You might move up to a limit at which you are breakeven or a loser at first, but if you accelerate your learning curve in such a way that you make it 3-6 and above even just a month quicker than you would have otherwise, you probably make money on the deal simply because the earn for a good player there is so much higher than where you are now.

[einbert]

I would definitely move up to 1/2 ASAP if I were you.

I also wouldn't cash out everything but 500BB unless you really need the money now. If you do that's understandable but if you want to maximize longterm profit your best bet is to keep your bankroll strong and healthy, and since you won't have to worry about losing big chunks of it you will be able to focus all your energy on developing your poker skills more thoroughly.

I would not cash it out really. I just want to crystalize my earnings so far....

I would just take it out to neteller and then mabey my online trading accuont, lots of $$$ to go around, just want to make sure that poker doesn't become a money loser.

Margon

[Victor]

move up as soon as you have the bankroll. if you lose make sure you still have enough money left to move down.