what a mess..

[BeerMoney]

8 seat was fishy.

Thoughts?

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___completes___calls
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___raises
Seat 4: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/club.gif___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls___calls

4th Street - (9.10 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___raises___raises
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___double bets___raises___calls
Seat 4: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls___calls___calls

5th Street - (20.55 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls
Seat 4: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls

6th Street - (24.55 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets___raises
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls___folds
Seat 4: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks___calls___folds

River - (33.55 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx___checks
Seat 4: xx xx A/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif xx___checks

Total pot: 33.55 BB

[PoorLawyer]

Yeah that qualifies as a mess. I can't imagine what seat 8 was doing in the hand. Not much you can really do here. I like the double bet on 4th but then it didn't scare anyone off even after you raised the Q on 3rd. That is slightly surprising I think. It sure looked like seat 4 hit his flush on 6th and you only have 2 outs to fill. I don't think you are getting the odds to call the 2 bets back to you.

[djr]

My first impression was your 6th fold was good. But I've been trying to watch odds more carefully and I think the numbers say to call.

The way seat 4 has been playing I can't see you being ahead on 6th, you only have two outs to fill up. However, you're 14:1 to make your hand and the pot gave you 25:1 so the first call on 6th is clearly right (especially if you add flush equity). When it get raised and 3bet back to you you're looking at a little better than 16:1 pot odds, and you'll likely get to jam the river if you fill up (given the action I think we can agree even hitting the ace of spades will not win this for you). It's a close one but I think you should have called.

[BeerMoney]

aren't i really looking at calling 3 bets? Don't you think the other guy will cap with a flush?

It looks like I have about 2 clean outs.. A king, or As.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
My first impression was your 6th fold was good. But I've been trying to watch odds more carefully and I think the numbers say to call.

The way seat 4 has been playing I can't see you being ahead on 6th, you only have two outs to fill up. However, you're 14:1 to make your hand and the pot gave you 25:1 so the first call on 6th is clearly right (especially if you add flush equity). When it get raised and 3bet back to you you're looking at a little better than 16:1 pot odds, and you'll likely get to jam the river if you fill up (given the action I think we can agree even hitting the ace of spades will not win this for you). It's a close one but I think you should have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

doesnt the pot give you 25:2 therefore it's a fold?

[BeerMoney]

He said the first time it came around..

[greenage]

With the 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif in plain sight, do you think that a CR on 4th would have given you a better chance of thinning the field?

Meh, guess that would be pretty transparent.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
He said the first time it came around..

[/ QUOTE ]

well it says on 6th there is 24.55 BB in the pot, so the 2nd time around you have to put in 2 BB so 24.55:2 then....

[jon_1van]

This hand is UGLY

The only place where you may have done something differently is on 4th when the Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif raises, but here I think you should be raising, It looks quite likely that you have an equity edge. So that raise seems fine.


I think Seat 2 could have ::
rolled Qs
pocket 5s for trip 5s on 4th
Q5 down
a high flush (Ad or Kd in the hole, hopefully not both)

I think seat 4 could have ::
made flush (a little loose but not insane)
pocket Js for trips Js
rolled Aces

You have at least 2 outs, maybe 3, there are 30 unknown cards.

Its 2 bets to you, there are 31 BB in there now, you might not get capped on.

So it will be close, I call because I couldn't handle somebody winning this pot with rolled Qs or something like that.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He said the first time it came around..

[/ QUOTE ]

well it says on 6th there is 24.55 BB in the pot, so the 2nd time around you have to put in 2 BB so 24.55:2 then....

[/ QUOTE ]

No, when it comes back around to you there are 31 BB in there

[BeerMoney]

Jon.. am I the only one who has a hard time thinking clearly in pots this big?

[Jeffage]

You have a clear fold on 6th street for one bet. You have a two outer and there is no chance you're currently good. The Queen was probably rolled up on 3rd, turned trips on 4th or started with a high three flush. In either scenario, you're screwed. And the AJ has all those live clubs and a straight possibilty. I don't even waste one bet on 6th.

Jeff

[Roland]

I disagree.
Sure, there’s a good chance that seat 4 has made a flush and will raise. But a) I think there is also some chance he has aces and b) even if he does raise, you’re still getting 14:1.
Maybe I’d even call the last two bets.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
8 seat was fishy.

[/ QUOTE ]


They were all fishy, judging by this hand.

I like it all.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
Jon.. am I the only one who has a hard time thinking clearly in pots this big?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all. That's why I said call, because if you don't KNOW you are drawing dead, I'm drawing.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a clear fold on 6th street for one bet. You have a two outer and there is no chance you're currently good. The Queen was probably rolled up on 3rd, turned trips on 4th or started with a high three flush. In either scenario, you're screwed. And the AJ has all those live clubs and a straight possibilty. I don't even waste one bet on 6th.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you notice the flush draw beer has?

[Jeffage]

Yea, I missed that...makes it a much tougher spot so I would probably call and fold for two more like he did. But even that's tough. Though I still do it.

Jeff

[BeerMoney]

Guys, what about fourth street?

Chip spewing madness, or calculated aggressive play?

I hate my life.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]

Guys, what about fourth street?

Chip spewing madness, or calculated aggressive play?


[/ QUOTE ]

You’ve got a shot at getting it heads-up. Do it.

[jon_1van]

Jeffage,
What are you hand ranges for both opponents?

[BTirish]

[ QUOTE ]

Guys, what about fourth street?

Chip spewing madness, or calculated aggressive play?

I hate my life.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like how you played it on all streets. My only thought for a possible change is to raise on 5th street. Driving away the other draws is the best shot at winning the pot. Anyone else have any thoughts on this? I was in a very similar situation yesterday, and I nearly posted the hand, but I realized I had misplayed the hand by simply calling on 5th street with draws behind me. It depends on the opponent, but trying to force an incorrect fold is necessary.

By the way, the title of my post was going to be "It's like trying to herd cats"--the reason I didn't put in the necessary 5th street raise was because I had had so much trouble already trying to thin the field. I think you did just what you should have on 4th street--but no one (especially seat 8) was willing to participate.

[BeerMoney]

Interesting BT.

I guess this is just one of those hands, right?

[mscags]

Thats the problem. The 10 seconds party gives you clearly isn't enough time to calculate everything you need to know when deciding on calling or not. Damn you Party /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[BTirish]

Yeah. I feel for you. But they swing the other way too. (Granted, you play for 10x my stakes, so the swings aren't such a big deal at my level). I dunno... a 5th street raise probably isn't a good idea in this situation, but it's the only other thing I can think of you might have done. You tried to call down cheaply, and letting it go looks like the right move to me. The As probably isn't a clean out--the case K may be all you've got left on 6th.

[djr]

[ QUOTE ]
aren't i really looking at calling 3 bets? Don't you think the other guy will cap with a flush?

It looks like I have about 2 clean outs.. A king, or As.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's a garautee that 6th will get capped if you call. He may think the seat four has a better flush than him (who knows how dumb he is) or he may not even have a flush (bluff or has a straight). Even if it is capped you're calling 3 to win 34 or roughly 10:1. With the extra money if you fill up it's very close as to whether the pot is laying good enough odds.

Although I agree you have two clean outs I think they are the K and 9. If seat 4 really has the flush, even the ace of spades won't win it for you. May I ask...why don't you consider the 9 a clean out?

[jon_1van]

1st opponent
Adxd - 7 ways (Ace high flush -> royal draw)
Kxdd - 6 ways (K high flush -> royal draw)
AKdd - 1 way (royal flush -> dead)
55 - 3 ways (trip 5s -> quad draw)
QQ - 1 way (trips Qs -> Q's full beats 9's full)
Q5 - 6 ways (very unlikely)

2nd opponent
AA - 1 way (we have some equity)
JJ - 1 way (we have some equity)
xxcc - 21 ways (we have a 2 outer)

So in 21 out of 23 times another spade CANNOT win for you (even if its the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif)

So this pretty much simplifies to a 2 outer.

When the action gets back to Beer lets assume we will get capped on and that no one will fold (seat 8 did cold call 2)

This means Beer is facing odds of 3:37.55 on this street alone.

If we assume Beer can get 3 BB on the river if he fills up he is getting odds of 3:40.55

There are 2 good outs and 30 unknown cards so Beer should win 6.6666% of the time

40.55 * 6.6666% is 2.703. Beer needed this to be 3 in order to call.

Actually beer isn't doing nearly this good for 2 reasons.
1. Sometimes some will out draw him. (A's full, Q's full over 9's full, quad 5s, Royal Flushes)
2. If we assume the diamond draw player has the A or K diamond in the hole than we shouldn't give beer as much credit for the case K out because a significant fraction of the time the Qd has the Kd in the hole (thus he was influenced to raise 3rd).

So if these assumptions are correct you are probably loseing 1/2 of a BB by calling. I would eat that anyday to prevent an enormous error if my reads were wrong.

[djr]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually beer isn't doing nearly this good for 2 reasons.
1. Sometimes some will out draw him. (A's full, Q's full over 9's full, quad 5s, Royal Flushes)
2. If we assume the diamond draw player has the A or K diamond in the hole than we shouldn't give beer as much credit for the case K out because a significant fraction of the time the Qd has the Kd in the hole (thus he was influenced to raise 3rd).


[/ QUOTE ]

You guys are the pros, but I seriously doubt anyone had rolled aces. I could put seat 2 on rolled queens though. In that case, you still have one good out (K) and one semi-out (9). Straight flushes aren't going to affect the odds that much, seat two would need both the king and ace of diamonds (hero has the 9d blocking that path), seat 4 would need two specific cards as well. Odds of either having the sf are small. Ditto on four of a kind (which they'd have to hit on the river). I think the safest assumption is he's against one or possibly two flushes, maybe seat 2 has rolled queens.

Honestly, with the odds as close as they are on this, I think hero wasn't terribly wrong to fold. I just think it's slightly more right to call. Heck although Beer didn't know it on 6th, the way they checked the river says to me that the ace spades probably would have won it for him as well. But that's neither here nor there.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My first impression was your 6th fold was good. But I've been trying to watch odds more carefully and I think the numbers say to call.

The way seat 4 has been playing I can't see you being ahead on 6th, you only have two outs to fill up. However, you're 14:1 to make your hand and the pot gave you 25:1 so the first call on 6th is clearly right (especially if you add flush equity). When it get raised and 3bet back to you you're looking at a little better than 16:1 pot odds, and you'll likely get to jam the river if you fill up (given the action I think we can agree even hitting the ace of spades will not win this for you). It's a close one but I think you should have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

doesnt the pot give you 25:2 therefore it's a fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 32.55:2. The 25.55 is the #of bets before any 6th street action.

[BeerMoney]

2 seat had trips 5's ,and the 4 seat had an Ace high flizzie.