Super-satellite, and a player all-in

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Here is a hand that caused a little bit of controversy, with two good players completely disagreeing about the correct play.

Mohegan Sun Super-satellite for the WSOP main event. 4 players remain, prizes are a seat + airfair for 1st and 2nd, about $750 to 3rd, and about $600 for 4th.

NLH is the game. SB posts T300 all-in, though the current price of the SB is T400. BB posts T800, and has about T4000 left. UTG has about T8000, and calls. Button has about T10,000, and is holding ATo.

The disagreement is with the play of the button. Should he limp in, or should he raise to drive out the other two players? Which play maximizes his personal monetary expectation, using a price of $10,300 for the first and second prizes?

In case it helps, it was clear that the UTG player was intending to gang up on the all-in, and most likely did NOT have a big pair. While UTG might have a hand as big as AKs, and might or might not fold to a raise with such a hand, he was very unlikely to be holding AA, KK, or QQ. JJ might be in for a limp, and other pairs definitely could not be ruled out. Similarly, other big A hands like AQ were possible holdings, as well as really weak hands like 75o.

Results and my analysis to be posted in a day or two.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[cferejohn]

I'm always pretty boggled in tourney situations like this. It seems like you have to trust your read of the other players. If the button limps, there is going to be a 1500 side pot, which seems large enough to make a play on.

Given the fact that I think UTG *might* be on a bigger ace, I would probably limp here, but I would take a shot at the pot if the flop was favorable.

[Bubmack]

I think the answer is fairly clear. Raise, Raise, Raise.

A raise, if successful, will buy the button instant equity of 1000 T chips. He is probably the best, but not for certain, and would definately prefer the 1000T chips over taking it to the flop.

If the SB does win the hand that only moves him to 1200, and is still not a big threat. Simultaneosly, the other small stack and big stack have had their positions weakened just a bit. All-in-all, Even if the SB wins the hand, the Big Stack is in better position than he would have been just calling the hand and letting one of the other larger stacks take down the pot.

Also, this is the strategy that would provide the highest probability for the SB to survive. This is not at all bad, since it will provide the Big stack with more leverage when trying to use his stack against the other two players.

bubs

[The Prince]

I'm not an expert on Supers.

However, I believe the button should limp. I can't see why he should raise. Then again, I can see exactly why he should raise. Mmmmhh...

Here's what I think. ATo is not a great hand but in the cricumstances it will be the best hand most of the time. Second, the button does gain is the SB busts, so an inclination to gang up on the SB could be right. Then again, the blinds are pretty big and he might gain more by shutting out the remaining players and improving his chances to win the pot. If he does win this pot, then he'll be an even bigger chip leader.

If the blinds were smaller (say 150-300), I can't see why he should raise.

Let's do the math.

Let's take the most probable scenario. He calls, the BB checks and everyone checks to the river. There will be 2700 in the pot. He should win about a third of the time (pure estimate) against 2 random hands and the range of hands UTG could have. When he wins, he will have 11900 out of 23100 with 2 opponents. When he loses, he'll have 9200 out of the same 23100 with 2 or 3 opponents (depending on if the SB wins).

His chip equity for this scenario is:

he wins the hand: 1/3 * 11900 = 3927
he loses the hand: 2/3 * 9200 = 6072

For an interesting total of 9999 (right back where he started).

If he raises, he should expect the BB and UTG to fold pretty much everything they have. So he should end up against the SB 95% of the time. When this happens, his AT should win about 2/3 of the time against a random hand. When he wins, he will have 11900 out of 23100 with 2 opponents. When he loses, he'll have 10700 (having won the extra 500 from the BB and UTG) out of the same 23100 with 3 opponents.

His chip equity for this scenario is:

he wins the hand: 2/3 * 11900 = 7854
he loses the hand: 1/3 * 10700 = 3731

For a total of 11385.

Since the blinds are so big, and the third player has a decent stack (4K-a stack that can hurt him later on even if the SB busts on this hand), I believe he should raise.

Like I said earlier, if the blinds had been smaller, he should probably just call. But since he only has 12 times the BB, it's a crapshoot. And he probalby gains more from this hand against the SB and getting the extra 1K no matter what.

My 2 cents.

[ohkanada]

Tough choice. I have gone from just calling to making a pot sized raise and finally raising all-in.

If the button makes it 3600 to go and the UTG re-raises all-in, is that enough to tell the button that AT is in trouble? If it is then this option might be okay.

Raising all-in is only bad if UTG has the Button fooled and is laying in wait with AA/KK and maybe QQ. BB will call with decent hands plus with his low stack might risk with many pairs. If BB folds, then UTG has a tough choice even with a very good hand. Call the all-in raise and be at risk to end up in 3rd, or muck and give the chip leader the side-pot and a free chance of busting out the SB. If I am UTG I would have raised with any decent hand and not limp allowing for this situation. If BB calls then UTG should likely fold everything except AA.

Raise it up!

Ken Poklitar

[sdplayerb]

You don't really care that much if he gets knocked out or not. But if you get it headsup, guarantee a 700 chip win, and probably 1200 more.
Want to bet enough to freeze out the limper and push out the BB.
I'd make it 3000 to go (2500 if he is particularly tight or smart enough to not want to mix it up). If he comes over the top allin, I fold.

I hope you were involved and won a seat.

[MHoydilla]

I would limp here, while ATo very well maybe the best hand and raising would allow you to go heads up with SB most of the time. The risk of getting reraised here by UTG is not worth the chips that would be picked up, because if UTG reraises you you may become pot-committed with an inferior hand. This could occur if the BB also decided to call. If you limp and miss your left 3 handed with approx 9/22 of the chips and an extremely good chance at the prize.

[togilvie]

I guess I'm the lone dissenter - I would fold.

The only places that matter are #1 and #2. Why get involved in a pot against the #2 stack, only to increase your stack by T2K, at max? If UTG has a bigger A, or a medium pocket pair, your stack could be decimated, sending you to the rail when you're a favorite to get a seat.

On the other hand, if you fold, there's a good chance that SB will be knocked out, leaving three players with two big stacks. Through implicit collusion you have a much better chance of being one of the last two standing.

[ohkanada]

Fold is an interesting thought. But Greg seemed to imply that UTG seemed willing to check it through so it seems that a call would be better than a fold although I still like the raise.

Of course the one case where fold would be better than a call is if BB decides to raise all-in. Now you either have to call the raise or muck and lose the bet. And BB could decide to re-raise all-in with decent but not great hands when 2 players have limped.

Ken Poklitar

[B-Man]

Greg,

I heard the Mohegan is having another Super for WSOP seat(s) on sunday evening, and I am thinking of playing (I am a little too far away to justify driving down on a weeknight).

Do you know how long these Supers typically last? How many players generally enter? Is two seats typical? How many chips do you start with and how fast do the blinds go up?

Any information you can offer would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

They have now held 9 supers, and there are 2 more. Tonight and Sunday, both at 7pm. Tonight is $125 with unlimited $100 rebuys and $100 or 200 add-on. Sunday is the same, just double the price (same $25 vig, however).

The structure is pretty fast, and you never have a lot of chips. They last 4-5 hours depending upon the size of the field. They give out whatever number of seats they have money for. It has usually been 1 or 2, and a couple of times none.

Good luck, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I was the player with AT. I was quite sure the limper did not have a big pair. As such, I was also quite sure he would fold to a raise, even if he held AK or JJ. He was going to have to give me credit for a really big hand. Likewise, I knew the BB would also give me credit for a good hand, and fold anything but the top few hands.

Therefore, I raised. I don't really care if the short stack is knocked out this hand or not. Because there were still 3 stacks in significant contention, I still wanted to accumulate chips. Raising nets me T700 when the active players fold, and put me in as a significant favorite for the remaining T1200. My raise was to a total of T2500. Enough to fold the players, and not enough to be pot-stuck if UTG reraised all-in. It was going to be hard for me to imagine him making that all-in reraise without at least KK.

BB quickly folded. Limper whined about how he thought I was a good player, that he thought I knew what I was doing, etc., etc., and then he folded. The all-in player had KT and flopped a K to win the main pot.

Next hand, I'm UTG, and limp in with JTs. Short stack, now on the button, raises all-in. SB (medium stack) folds, and BB (big stack) gives me a long, glaring look before calling. I call. BB checks blind. Flop is T73, I check, and BB checks the turn blind. Turn is a small card, I check, and BB checks the river blind. I check a K on the river, and BB wins with T3o for 2-pair on the flop, and short stack is eliminated. Big stack then says to me something like "That's how to play it right."

Next hand the short stack on the button goes all-in, big stack folds, and I call with 99. I have a tell on the short stack, and know he is weak. He has Q9o, and is eliminated. $10K seats go to me and the other big stack. Cha-ching.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[RollaJ]

Awesome Greg, Well Done!!!! GL atthe big one /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[The Prince]

Yep, nice play. Makes perfect sense. How small would the blinds need to be for you to just call? Or would you always raise?

And BTW, so I improve my tell reading, what was tell you had on the other player?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I had seen him raise a few times. A couple of those times he kind of set his jaw, like he was gritting his teeth. One of those times he set his jaw, he got called, and got slightly lucky when his 78s beat AQo.

Since he set his jaw this time, I felt he had another weak hand. Plus, I knew he did not have to have two overcards to steal.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Fitz]

Congratulations, and good luck at the big dance. We'll hope to hear good things this year.

Good luck,

[Easy E]

" He was going to have to give me credit for a really big hand. Likewise, I knew the BB would also give me credit for a good hand"

(Now, i'm assuming with my following statements that, normally, ATo is NOT a good hand with an all-in and 2 limpers, when both limpers could chop out a fair amount of your stack, moving you to 3rd place. It was your leading stack, with a 2K margin, that made this play possible.
Or am I unduly undervaluing ATo, as the chip leader, when the prize jump is fairly significant?)

Were none of these players good enough to realize that you would use your stack and position, with a less-than-premium hand, in this way? Hopefully that thought would have occurred to me, if I were them, BECAUSE of that stupid "it's your job to help us eliminate" concept would imply that there was no "good reason" for your raise.
I mean, if the limper knew so damn much about how to play, why was HE limping in? The BB had the elimination covered...

By the way, don't you net T1000 here by folding the players? T1900 total minus T900 side pot, right?

My first thought on seeing the hands was "fold" because I don't know what the others have and someone could eliminate the all-in. Looking at the prize structure, you don't gain that much by having the SB out (as you said), so I agree with going for the chips. I'm not sure if AT is worth the risk of limping here...
However, I don't know the answer to "Which play maximizes his personal monetary expectation, using a price of $10,300 for the first and second prizes?" The question about the limper and the BB is, what will they risk a lot/all of their stack on, and how will they interpret/react to your raise?

By the way, please let me know when you get your act together and truly figure out how to "play" right. I can't take advice from someone who has no clue on how to play. Evidently you THINK that you are a good player, but you don't know what you are doing. Remember, results don't matter.... it's what's RIGHT that counts.

Until I get that email (in fact, you'd better stop posting until you get yourself right, you charlatan),

Easy E signing off

[lysis]

Hi Greg,

First off, congrats! You better start practicing in those 800 person on-line free-rolls, I'm guessing that's what the WSOP is gonna play like this year.

Back to the problem, I think that if you have the stones (which I know you do), then a raise is clearly the correct play here, only because of the pay-out structure. I also believe that your opponent knows you made the correct play, he was just upset that you made it! I know I would be pissed off if I limped in his spot, and was then forced to surrender.

1) You are not that safe in relation to the blinds in a 4 handed game. If it was a more traditional super satelite, with 3rd place taking a good chunk of cash instead of a seat, or maybe a regular tourney, where top 3 get paid the lion's share, then ok, maybe you limp.

But it wasn't, your fighting to land in the top two spots, and that fight is far from over, you still need chips for the long haul ahead.

2) Seeing as you still need chips, a raise is in order with AT in this spot(again, you need the stones to make this play in this spot). UTG doesn't have a monster or he would have communicated that to you by raising. And since the SB is all-in, you just need to beat the BB's hand.

The major advantage to raising here is that you're gonna get credit for a monster hand, it's gonna be VERY hard for the BB and UTG player to call a decent size raise. If they can't call your raise, then you're getting paid $700 to go head up against a totally random hand, with a chance to take down an extra $1200. That's a dream come true for you in this spot.

So I say go ahead, make the selfish play, piss off your opponent, but do it cause it's the correct play to make in this spot. I would hope that if I was in your shoes, I would have made a raise small enough that I could still fold to an all-in re-raise by the $4000 BB. That would probably be in the T1800->T2000 range.

lysis