Donked on the turn?

[Womble]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, MP calls, Hero ???

Im not folding, but do I raise or call this?

To raise here your hand has to be the best 1 of 3 times. If u belive that, a raise is + value.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
To raise here your hand has to be the best 1 of 3 times. If u belive that, a raise is + value.

[/ QUOTE ]

your logic is flawed

you are not guaranteed that both will call, in which case you need to be better than 2:1. you may be 3-bet by a better hand, in which case you need to be better than 2:1. and it is possible both of these cases are true.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
To raise here your hand has to be the best 1 of 3 times. If u belive that, a raise is + value.

[/ QUOTE ]

=D

Exactly what I was going to say.

EDIT: Well yeah jba is correct, you do need to be best more than 1/3 of the time here to raise. Something like 40% is probably correct, maybe a little lower given the passivity of 1/2 (you will sometimes to frequently not get three-bet by a better hand, and both opponents will almost always at least call the raise).

Still, a raise is pretty clearly correct in my eyes.

[Alobar]

raise. Fish love to donk cards like this when they pick up a draw, especially at the lower limits. Its an even easier raise cuz youve got a guy in between

I am thinking that the villan picked up a pair with a flush draw, or a straight draw. I think that if he had something big he would have Check-raised you on the turn.

After thinking about this I am going to go with a raise, but if it is 3-bet back at you, I think that I fold it (actually I never seem to do this in a real game, I usually end up calling down if it is 3-bet, but I think it is a leak, and I should let it go on the 3-bet).


In assessing this, and trying to think about what hands he would have, it is tough to tell since he is in the SB. A read on him would be good, if he defends a lot it is very hard to tell, but if he doesn't then you can likely put him on something decent, in which case you are going to be behind to a lot of hands (99, QT, T7, AJ, etc.). The slowplaying trips seems less likely as that would lead more into the Turn CR, so I am still thinking that if you are behind it is to something that was made on the Turn, either 2 pair, trip 9s or a straight. A lot of hands could sink you here, scarry situation.

Another thing to consider is how often top pair holds up. Lets say you will need to put in 2 more bets to get to SD, and the villan will put in another one on the river, that makes it 10 BB total, you have to put in 2 more, and you have 5 outs to improve.

hmmmm, so bet or call, call down will get you to a showdown cheaper, but betting could be good as your hand is better than marginal.

I guess it comes down to is wether or not you are willing to throw it away. If you are, then bet, and if raised back, fold, otherwise call. But that doesn't make much sense either, as using that theory, it would only cost your one more bet to see the SD (i.e. betting and folding is 1 more betting, calling down is 2).

So, I change my mind, call this on the turn, and then if you get a A on the river, bet out, otherwise call that down as well.

(Sorry, but as you can tell, I am far far far from an expert, and I am thinking about this in a VERY clouded way)


Margon