Stupid...Stupid...Stupid

[manku]

Playing my regular home game, PL, 5-10 blinds. I have about $500, as do most people.

Game is Omaha8. I'm BB

Dealt A-2-9-10, double suited. Not great, but since it's unraised, I'm in a 5 way hand.

Flop: A-A-K, rainbow.

I check. UTG, a certified maniac, bets out $40. UTG+1, a player who presses marginal hands, calls. I call, despite having a hunch that AK is out there, probably by UTG+1.

Turn: 10. Giving me second nut hand.

I check. UTG checks. UTG+1 bets $120. I am almost positive, from bodylanguage, that he has AK and I'm drawing dead. For some reason, my chips go flying in. UTG folds.

River: blank.

I check, UTG+1 bets $200, (he had about $350 in front). I auto call, knowing that I'm giving away my money. He shows AK.

Follow up problem: Often, when I encounter a stupid beat like this in a game (I was up a few hundred at the time), my "luck" turns and I can't seem to pull another card the rest of the evening. I'd like to chalk it up to going on "tilt", but literally the rest of the night I pull no decent cards. I don't make any poor decisions, but fritter away a couple hundred more in blinds and preflop calls. It's almost like my negative energy is controlling the cards.

Anyone else have experiences like this?

Manku

[Buzz]

(1/2)
Manku - Good post. Two interesting ideas, IMHO, so I’ll respond with two posts. First, the hand.

When you hold A29Td, the board will be such that you’ll make the nut low about one time in four (26.13%). You’ll qualify for low (counterfeited but with four or five low cards on board, as with a board of 2478Q, roughly another one time in eight, for a total low making possibility of 37.87%).

When I play AT in Texas hold ‘em, I’d rather see a flop with a ten than a flop with an ace. Similarly, with A9, I’d rather see a flop with a nine than an ace. It’s a similar situation in Omaha-8. When you hold A29T and you flop trip aces, you have to worry about being out-kicked if nobody makes the boat, or being out-boated if both you and somebody else make a boat.

With A29Tn, I’ll tend to fold in early position and tend to raise in late position. My object in raising with this piece of junk is to reinforce the notion in some people’s heads that I raise when I have A2XX (because I believe I can capitalize on this misperception).

With A29Td, I have a dilemma. I hate the hand. But I think it wins often enough that I have to play it. I’d get stuck the same as you with the damned hand if I flopped trip aces with it. Fortunately I don’t play much pot limit Omaha-8, so my losses in this situation would be more limited than yours. Even if I had a hunch that someone had AKXX, I’d still play the hand after this flop, just in case they didn’t. And then, upon catching the second nut boat, I’d absolutely be stuck with the hand, hating every minute of it, even if it turned out to be a winner. Thus I don’t have any good advice for you here, just empathy. (I'm very interested if anyone has good advice for me here).

Of course, when you hold Ah2hTc9c you could also catch a flop you love, like 8h7c6h or TT9 - and that's why I play the hand. But when you catch trip aces, especially along with a king on the flop, ugh! Trapped!

Second post to follow.

Buzz

[Buzz]

(2/2)
Manku - Second post, the follow up problem. This is a more serious problem - a much more serious problem.

Follow up problem: Often, when I encounter .....(whatever)..... in a game (I was up a few hundred at the time), my "luck" turns and I can't seem to pull another card the rest of the evening. I'd like to chalk it up to going on "tilt", but literally the rest of the night I pull no decent cards. I don't make any poor decisions, but fritter away a couple hundred more in blinds and preflop calls. It's almost like my negative energy is controlling the cards. Anyone else have experiences like this?

Yes, I have had experiences like this. I believe “luck” is a factor in success in poker, but not a very important one. I think only roughly 1%-5% of success in a poker session is due to luck. Lou Krieger has an interesting section in his Hold ‘Em Excellence book where he concludes the lifetime luck factor is even lower, 1%-1.5%.

But yes, I’ve gotten to a point in a poker game, and it almost always happens when I earlier was up quite a bit and then have somehow gotten down to substantially less than that high point, where I can’t seem to win a hand, and when I finally do win a hand the pot is not big enough to get me back to the chip pinnacle I previously enjoyed.

The “experts” claim you should play through these streaks, but when I try that approach, I inevitably gradually lose all the money I have with me.

Depending on how one defines the word “tilt,” the problem does not seem to be “tilt.” Instead I think the problem may be a subconscious lack of self confidence. “Subconscious,” at least for me, because I’ll look around the table at the players and consciously think I should be able to beat this group, and, moreover, if I can’t beat this group then I shouldn’t be playing poker at all.

Yet if I can be honest with myself (hard to do), I may be playing like a loser. And if so, then I probably look like a loser to my opponents.

My present opinion, and I’m certainly interested in feed-back here, is that when I am on a downslide and when I get to the point where I seriously look around the table and consciously think “I should be able to beat this group,” at that point I should immediately leave the table and not play again until I have slept. At that point something is wrong with my game. I don’t know what is wrong, but it’s time to stop playing until I have slept. There may be nothing magic about the sleep, except that taking a sleep break completely stops the current session, which is what I feel I need to do at that point.

I can’t speak for you, but perhaps your problem is similar to mine. If so, when you get to the point where you think your “luck” may have turned, then immediately stop playing for that session, planning to go back another day. That’s advice for a casino game.

However, when you’re playing with friends in a home game, quitting early when you are up a couple of hundred does not seem the thing to do, at least not very often. You can quit early as a winner a couple of times, perhaps making some excuse, but if you pull that stunt too often you’ll be looking for another game and new friends. Since you are playing in a regular home game, I don't know what to tell you, except that your "negative energy" is surely having more of an effect on the way you are playing the game than on the cards (where it has no effect at all).

Lastly, If one only has a certain amount of “luck” in life, I surely don’t want to waste mine at the poker table.

Just my opinion. Good luck to you in all endeavors.

Buzz

[DisRdatMan]

Manku,
How about a bet on the turn, and a fold, if utg+1 raises?
How about a flat fold when you think he has AK? Afraid to give up a winner? What do you think he is thinking you have? Two guys calling; "someone has an Ace" he's got to be thinking. What would his kicker have to be to be unconcerned with someone else's AAA? Give up your cards when you think you are beat. Also give up this "negative energy" thing. It doesn't exist. The same for: "luck turning after you suffer a stupid beat." You may lose confidence, but luck is there or not, it don't turn. Play your cards and not unseen forces.
DisRdatMan

[iblucky4u2]

Part 1 - While Buzz points out the odds for hitting the nut low, with the suited A (who cares about the other suited cards) IMHO this hand is a play even to a raise.

As to laying down the hand after the flop - if you have a good read on another player having AK (better to bet the flop and find out?) then lay it down. If you don't believe your read, then you have other problems ... leading to

Part 2 - this type of perspective is better discussed on the Psychology forum. My opinion is that what you are feeling is a magnet for the cards you get and the way the flop, turn, river happen. You are feeling like you made a mistake and are punishing yourself you are creating the magnetic field that will force your chips away from you. Something that works for me is to close my eyes and get a picture of myself sitting at the table. If the picture is black and white, I add some color. If it is a still, I add motion. If I am smaller than life size, I make myself bigger - sometimes VERY big. Play with these to see which ones work for you.

[DPCondit]

Buzz, I'm going to have to disagree with you here, luck can be a very powerful factor in one session, of course it should not be an important factor over a long period of time.

As far as quitting when you think you should "be able to beat this group". I would say that depends on how tired you are, how late is it, do you have to get up early, are you making mistakes? Are you playing well, pushing your edges, reading the opposition? Sometimes, no matter what you do, you will get your clock cleaned, but sometimes, I can turn a situation like that around into a big win. It's tricky to know when to push it, and when to go home sometimes. But, you gotta have your own signals, and be able to follow them, nothing worse than staying for a few more hours when your game starts deteriorating.

Sometimes, if I am losing my concentration, I just hold my breath for a minute and don't move, staring at the middle of the table, a little one-minute zen warm-up to clear my mind.

As far as manku, I'm not really a pot-limit guy, and I would probably call that hand all the way in a limit game, but when I think of having to put in most of my stack on that hand to see it through after I've already put somebody on AK, I think you just gotta let it go.

Don

[Big Dave D]

Manku,

This hand is fine...in plo8b u r trying to hit the nuts with a freeroll and this hand fits the bill. I would play it from any position cheap. I would probably make a sweatener raise from position.

As to your actual hand, I may make a small stab at the pot on the flop, but would basically fall asleep if called. The turn is no real temptation. PLO8b is a game of massive edges and this simply isnt one. There's no shame in passing.

Gl

Big Dave D

[Ignatius]

After a bet and a call on the flop, you hand belongs into the muck and it's not close. You have no backdoor low and there's simply no way that you are ahead here. But even without UTG+1 calling, with ATxx on an AAK flop, you can only hope that the maniac is bluffing or fooling around with an even weaker ace - not a good proposition to risk your chips on.