believable bluff?

[mikech]

5-5, deep stacks, mp and i started the hand with ~3500 each. ep raises to 40 (pretty standard open, this game plays more like a 5-10, many hands are straddled although this one wasn't, open-raises even up to 60 or 80 are not uncommon), mp calls, button calls, i call from the blind with 5c4c. flop comes Ac3c9d, i lead for 75, only mp calls. turn is 7c, i bet 250, mp raises to 700 with ~2700 behind. we both view the other as tight, at this point i believe he has the nut flush, or the Q-high at the very least. i think for awhile and call. river pairs the ace, i bet 1500.

in general i don't think i bluff enough. was this a good spot for one?

[mgsimpleton]

i once made a very similar bluff at foxwoods where I had been check raised on the turn by someone with a flush but he pot committed me to call with the A of the suit... on the river the board paired and he made some weak blocking bet and i shoved in for his entire stack which was almost a pot sized raise.

he called me after 3 minutes saying "i have a flush!" um, oh really? i didn't realize you had a flush, sir. i guess i shouldn't have value bet my top pair and lone A of hearts for 2k, huh?

so on one hand, make sure the villain knows exactly what you're representing, heh. but during the hand the guy also asked me if i filled up on him, and he considered it pretty strongly... (although apparently he didn't realize that i was 99.9% sure HE had a flush). i think it comes down to HOW tight villain thinks you are and if he can make a big laydown with a big flush. some will just try to put you on a smaller flush and call.

you asked if it was a good spot for a bluff, and my inclination is to go with no. people don't like to make big laydowns. make them lay down top pair like 2-3 times each for 1/2 - 1/3 the money is my advice... you're risking 1500 to win 1500, i just don't think he lays it down 1/2 the time when the pot is giving him 2:1.

[mikech]

hi duck, i think you might be right, i'm still not sure of the ev of my play here which is why i posted it. would you have folded on the turn? at the time my thought process was this:

i have two true outs. if the 6c or 2c comes, he's almost definitely going to pay me off a pot-sized bet (or even move in) with the Kc on an unpaired board.

i have 12 bluff outs. since i don't actually have a set, i picked up two extra "outs," heh. if the board pairs, it's going to be rather difficult for him to call that pot-bet on the river, given that my play looks pretty consistent with holding 33 or 99.

so i have 14 outs where if i hit the true outs i would be likely to get a call, and if i hit the bluff outs i felt i could likely force a fold. crunching the numbers isn't my strong suit, what percentage of times must he call if i hit my 2-outer/fold if the board pairs, for this to be +ev?

[mgsimpleton]

yeah, i would give up when raised on the turn. the reason we call with sets in these spots is that opponents usually call for up to pot sized bets when we fill up on the river.

i keep trying to do the math and i'm screwing up, will someone take a stab at it please?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
at this point i believe he has the nut flush, or the Q-high at the very least.

[/ QUOTE ]

So... you called for your 2 outer? FOLD.

I think that the river push is believeable, but I don't think that he folds those hands > 50% of the time... but it's probably close.

[mgsimpleton]

if OP is just calling for the 2 outer alone and he called an all-in every time you hit (if he has the nut flush definitely, with the Q more questionable but for the sake of argument let's assume 100% call) then the EV of the call is only -260 or so... so if he can make up that EV by bluffing the river, the call isn't so horrible. i don't think you can though as i said, i think the bluff alone is -EV, and it would have to be +EV by 260 meaning villain would have to fold yeah somewhere around 55-60 percent, that's the guess without going through the math that i screwed up so many times.

with deeper stacks though if you can be sure he has the nut flush, this might not be so bad, as you would surely get at least an additional 5k if u hit your straight flush.

is it just me or do all the posts this week deal w/ straight flush v nut flush on 4 flush boards? was there another post challenge from matt flynn this week that i missed after last week's LAG challenge?