Flopping a set and the board gets ugly

[jskills]

Table is fairly loosey goosey with many people seeing flops. BB how shown himself to be 25/10/2 over about 50 hands.

I'm wondering what people think of my turn donk. My plan was to check raise the turn, but I hated the turn card and felt like I needed to ensure it did not get checked around out of fear someone had a straight.

Thoughts?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

River: (13 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

[Rezman5]

I think if you are going to check this flop with this many people you should be doing so with the intention of check raising to thin the field. I like the rest though.

[j0n_blayze]

raise the flop.

[Nick C]

I would lead the flop, figuring I couldn't protect my hand very well anyway and I might as well start trying to build a big pot.

[Nick C]

On the turn, there are 46 unknown cards. There are also 10 cards (other than yours) that people found a reason to call with on the flop, and you're drawing if any of those 10 cards are one of the eight available 9's or 4's.

I actually think I might just check-call here. You may not get raised by a 4, but I'm worried a 9 is out there somewhere, and I think I'd like to see the river as cheaply as possible.

I'll admit, though, that it doesn't seem like a 9 was out there this time (or a 4, either).

[shant]

Dude, bet that flop, then a bunch of the guys in the middle call, and hopefully CO raises, and then we 3-bet and then $$$$$$$$$$$$.

[Entity]

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Dude, bet that flop, then a bunch of the guys in the middle call, and hopefully CO raises, and then we 3-bet and then $$$$$$$$$$$$.

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[pokergrader]

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Dude, bet that flop, then a bunch of the guys in the middle call, and hopefully CO raises, and then we 3-bet and then $$$$$$$$$$$$.

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Exactly. We know everybody here is going to have some sort of draw, so make them pay for it. If you boat, then you are going to take down a huge multi-way pot. If you don't boat up, you can minimize losses by check/calling if the board gets this scary.

Overall this is one of the biggest +EV situations you can have in low-limit poker; you have an equity edge against many opponents who are locked in with any sort of draw, so you better push it as hard and as fast as you can when you have the chance (ie, this flop).

[uw_madtown]

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Dude, bet that flop, then a bunch of the guys in the middle call, and hopefully CO raises, and then we 3-bet and then $$$$$$$$$$$$.

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[thejameser]

it has already been said, but you need to play the flop much faster in this situation.

[JerseyTom]

At the risk of sounding repetitive, bet the damn flop... /images/graemlins/wink.gif


Tom

[TemetNosce]

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Dude, bet that flop, then a bunch of the guys in the middle call, and hopefully CO raises, and then we 3-bet and then $$$$$$$$$$$$.

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Ditto. It would also be a shame if the CO has 2 overs and decides to check it through on the flop.

[jskills]

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I think if you are going to check this flop with this many people you should be doing so with the intention of check raising to thin the field. I like the rest though.

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Why thin the field on a drawless board like this (at the time of the flop at least).

[jskills]

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Dude, bet that flop, then a bunch of the guys in the middle call, and hopefully CO raises, and then we 3-bet and then $$$$$$$$$$$$.

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That's the f-ing line I was looking for.

Thanks.

[jskills]

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At the risk of sounding repetitive, bet the damn flop... /images/graemlins/wink.gif


Tom

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You're right. I usually tend to avoid donk betting when there is a preflop raiser and I'm pretty sure I can count on him betting. I really took the wrong line here given my relative position to him.

[jskills]

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raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Then it becomes 2-bets to the rest of the field who will likely fold. Bad idea.

[ricdaman]

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I think if you are going to check this flop with this many people you should be doing so with the intention of check raising to thin the field. I like the rest though.

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Why thin the field on a drawless board like this (at the time of the flop at least).

[/ QUOTE ]

(A) The board is not drawless - anybody with a 7 has an open-ended str8 draw.
(B) Yes, you do not want to thin the field. You will only be thinning the field of thinks like AQo, which have zero chance of beating you. Anybody with a 7, as well as overpairs (which can beat you) will still call. In other words, you would only be thinning field of those people who can't beat you while those who can would remain. Thinning the field is a BAD idea.

[nickg1532]

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I think if you are going to check this flop with this many people you should be doing so with the intention of check raising to thin the field. I like the rest though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why thin the field on a drawless board like this (at the time of the flop at least).

[/ QUOTE ]

(A) The board is not drawless - anybody with a 7 has an open-ended str8 draw.
(B) Yes, you do not want to thin the field. You will only be thinning the field of thinks like AQo, which have zero chance of beating you. Anybody with a 7, as well as overpairs (which can beat you) will still call. In other words, you would only be thinning field of those people who can't beat you while those who can would remain. Thinning the field is a BAD idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. The only hands you can protect against are hands that are drawing dead/very very thin. The hands you want to fold are almost never folding (except, maybe, gutshots, but trapping them for multiple bets certainly isn't bad). On the flop with a set you have the best hand AND best draw like 99.9% of the time, so if you're ever in doubt about which line to take, I wouldn't worry about protection. Take the line that gets the most bets in from the most number of people.

[Mister Z]

I'm tempted to bet out on this flop, hoping to 3-bet the CO (or any other raiser) to get this pot big early. I like the turn donk bet as you don't want it checked through if you're ahead.

[DocMartin]

Your position here is awesome. If you have no fear of the board, bet hoping to 3bet a raise sucking more out of the field. If you are a scaredy pants (i dont think you should be here) then this is a perfect time for a check/raise to limit the field.

Rest of the hand looks fine.

[ellipse_87]

What are the criteria when deliberating over whether to protect or build the pot? Here, is it simply that trapping 4 players for 2 or 3 bets overcomes the certainty of getting beat ocasionally long-term by gutshots we could've folded, thus giving the play +EV?

If the PFR'r was the SB and we were directly behind, would we be raising this flop to protect?

Thanks

[jskills]

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I think if you are going to check this flop with this many people you should be doing so with the intention of check raising to thin the field. I like the rest though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why thin the field on a drawless board like this (at the time of the flop at least).

[/ QUOTE ]

(A) The board is not drawless - anybody with a 7 has an open-ended str8 draw.
(B) Yes, you do not want to thin the field. You will only be thinning the field of thinks like AQo, which have zero chance of beating you. Anybody with a 7, as well as overpairs (which can beat you) will still call. In other words, you would only be thinning field of those people who can't beat you while those who can would remain. Thinning the field is a BAD idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. The only hands you can protect against are hands that are drawing dead/very very thin. The hands you want to fold are almost never folding (except, maybe, gutshots, but trapping them for multiple bets certainly isn't bad). On the flop with a set you have the best hand AND best draw like 99.9% of the time, so if you're ever in doubt about which line to take, I wouldn't worry about protection. Take the line that gets the most bets in from the most number of people.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if you guys are agreeing with the check-raise the flop idea, but check raising the flop is awful here.

If you want to get the most bets in from the most number of peoeple, check raising directly after the preflop raiser bets and making the rest of the field face two bets cold is NOT the way to accomplish that. It makes them all fold and get the hand heads up. We do not want that on this type of flop.

The correct line, as pointed out by several posters (Shant, Entity) is to simply bet out on the flop, get everyone to call one bet behind you, and hope the preflop raiser will raise the flop, thus bringing the rest of the field along for another bet.

BTW: The flop can be considered drawless in that most people calling a preflop raise aren't entering with a 7 in hand. I was not concerned about anyone holding a 7 at all. It was when the 7 fell on the turn that things got interesting.

[Entity]

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BTW: The flop can be considered drawless in that most people calling a preflop raise aren't entering with a 7 in hand.

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This is simply not true when 3 people limped in before the raise and the other caller was the BB.

Rob

[jskills]

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BTW: The flop can be considered drawless in that most people calling a preflop raise aren't entering with a 7 in hand.

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This is simply not true when 3 people limped in before the raise and the other caller was the BB.

Rob

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I hear you. Drawless is proably too strong a term here. But if the flop was T 9 Q, I'd almost count on someone holding a J. This flop didn't have me worried about pushing people out is what I was trying to say. I wanted everyone to come along as I really wasn't worried about a 7 in someone's hand. Certainly not as much as I was a 7 falling on the turn.

[crunchy1]

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if the flop was T 9 Q, I'd almost count on someone holding a J.

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Thinking this way seems to be a mistake. In the 2/4 game there is no significant diference between the probability that someone in your hand will hold a 7 vs. someone in the example quoted above holding a Jack.

EDIT: We shouldn't discount the posibility of adjacent cards being out too. 4's and 9's are also likely killers. Just as 8's and K's would be in your example.

[jskills]

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if the flop was T 9 Q, I'd almost count on someone holding a J.

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Thinking this way seems to be a mistake. In the 2/4 game there is no significant diference between the probability that someone in your hand will hold a 7 vs. someone in the example quoted above holding a Jack.

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I understand what you are saying to some degree, but to say that there is "no significant difference" in the likelihood of someone holding a J or a 7 seems like a bit of an overstatement to me.

Can you at least acknowledge that a flop of T 9 Q is certainly more worrisome than a flop of 8 5 6?

[ErrantNight]

i don't like this at all.

don't like the c/c on the flop, nor your plan to c/r the turn, nor your rationale for betting the turn.

river is fine.

[ErrantNight]

when you're holding a pair of 8's? uhhh.... yeah....

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

I think its been said already -- you need to do one of the following:
(1) bet this flop
(2) raise this flop
(3) both (1) and (2).

The worst choice is (4) check/call.

[Supdog42]

I would have bet out immediately, but certainly a check raise on the flop is in order. I think the check/call/slow play on the flop is wrong. So many times I see slowplayed sets get beaten by cheap cards. Don't be greedy, get the money in and fast.

[JerseyTom]

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if the flop was T 9 Q, I'd almost count on someone holding a J.

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Thinking this way seems to be a mistake. In the 2/4 game there is no significant diference between the probability that someone in your hand will hold a 7 vs. someone in the example quoted above holding a Jack.

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I understand what you are saying to some degree, but to say that there is "no significant difference" in the likelihood of someone holding a J or a 7 seems like a bit of an overstatement to me.

Can you at least acknowledge that a flop of T 9 Q is certainly more worrisome than a flop of 8 5 6?

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Acknowledged. Espcially if you hold the same 88 on the QT9 flop /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I'm less concerned about protection here than I am about getting all DA MONIE$$$ in on the falop. We can't protect against a 7 and shouldn't even try; let's get as much value as we can by betting out (letting hands that are basically drawing dead like AQo, JJ call one on the flop) and hopefully we'll get raised by the PFR and we can 3-bet it, etc.


Tom

[jskills]

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i don't like this at all.

don't like the c/c on the flop, nor your plan to c/r the turn, nor your rationale for betting the turn.

river is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, I f-ed this one up for sure. Pretty standard play given my relative position to preflop raiser is to lead the flop and hope late PF raiser raises.

[jskills]

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I would have bet out immediately, but certainly a check raise on the flop is in order. I think the check/call/slow play on the flop is wrong. So many times I see slowplayed sets get beaten by cheap cards. Don't be greedy, get the money in and fast.

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No. What we've learned here is the correct line is to bet the flop, not check raise it. Check raising it pushes everyone else out of the hand aside from the PF raiser. We want to trap them all for another bet by betting out, letting them all call, and letting CO raise.