WRXtasy_03 - 43/22/2.17 - winning player?

[DCWGaming]

This guy has caught my eye recently... I see him around 5/10 6m alot. Every time i've checked (only 3 times...) he has been 4 tabling.

I wasnt aware that a strategy so aggressive could be profitable. Is it? If so, have there been posts about the looser play working well?

Thx

[Victor]

cue excell.....

[kahntrutahn]

I have him at 39/22/1.9 with a lovely 40.53BB/100 over 76 hands =p

[TheMetetron]

I could play those stats and win.

Not as much as I win now, but I could probably get over 1 bb/100 at 10/20.

Good postflop play is the key.

[Jerkass333]

Yep, I have him at 36.5/16 and 20bb/100 hands over 200 hands so far. Seems like he's winning, but he's not the type of guy that will force me to leave a table when he sits, ya know?

[Cerril]

I've only got 40 hands with him at 45/32.5/1.33(PostFlop), he's sitting at -61.5BB/100 (-246). Too small a sample, but the disparity between his WSD and his W$SD seem to imply that he was either terribly unlucky (obviously) or he was making some loose calls.

All I can tell from my HHs is that he seems to call down a bit liberally (though maybe he had me tagged as a LAG) and he was someone I did my share of calling down against. I imagine though his postflop hand selection may be good enough to make him a winner.

Question is, can he beat -you-.

[ALL1N]

Oh dear, not again.

[DCWGaming]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh dear, not again.

[/ QUOTE ]
eh? was this talked about before? link?

And as for his play... I really havent seen anything especially good or bad from him. I dont avoid pots that he's in like i do some other 2+2ers

I'm really more curious/interested in how viable the strategy is, instead of whether or not I can beat him.

[sublime]

Post deleted by sublime

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I could play those stats and win.

Not as much as I win now, but I could probably get over 1 bb/100 at 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um no.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think it's possible?

I really think it's very possible to win being that loose, though certainly not by much. Maybe, I'm just under-estimating the amount of negative EV situations you would get yourself into playing that loose.

Someone wants to pay me enough, I'll do it for 10k hands.

[ALL1N]

search for DERB, or an excel post

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I could play those stats and win.

Not as much as I win now, but I could probably get over 1 bb/100 at 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um no.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think it's possible?

I really think it's very possible to win being that loose, though certainly not by much. Maybe, I'm just under-estimating the amount of negative EV situations you would get yourself into playing that loose.

Someone wants to pay me enough, I'll do it for 10k hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or overestimating how good you are. probably a combination of the two.

I deleted my post, because i didnt want you to think it was a stab at your skill level. this forum is LOADED with people who either underestimate thier skill levels, or overestimate them and its usually due to the bell curve effect of variance.

can you win over 10k hands playing like that? probably, maybe even a lot. which is what makes poker profitable.

[LImitPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I could play those stats and win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your not gods gift to poker, even if you think you are.

Do you do anything but brag?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I could play those stats and win.

Not as much as I win now, but I could probably get over 1 bb/100 at 10/20.

Good postflop play is the key.

[/ QUOTE ]


not a chance

good postflop play is the key but there are certain hands you just can't turn a profit with. right now, to get that, I'd have to tack on 16% more hands somehow (in other words, I'd go from folding 73% of my hands to 57%, or start CALLING with 22% of the hands I'm now folding), then on top of that, not lower my AF at all, which means playing those extra hands just as strongly as the better ones

there is a point where adding hands is not profitable. no matter how good you are, you can't turn a profit defending the bottom 20 or 25% of your hands from the bb against a steal, or your bottom 50 or 60% from the sb in a 1/2 structure.

if you think you can sustain 1 bb/100 like that, then you've been running way too good. I've been running pretty damn good for a long time and I know I wouldn't have a prayer

[noir]

I'm not comfortable with posting exact info relating to someone with whom I don't have some manner of contact. And I mean no disrespect to those that do. Clearly, specificity is important in analysis.

We have traded many blows. 'Til now, mine have done quite a bit of damage.

[TheMetetron]

So I've grossly underestimated the amount of unprofitability those hands have. I figured it would chip away at your win rate, but I guess I didn't realize by how much.

There was no technical analysis in my statement, just what seemed to be true in my head. And I was in no way implying I could do it and only me, I meant any solid postflop player.

Obviously, I've underestimated the -EV of those hands and was incorrect.

[sthief09]

posts like these don't belong here.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
posts like these don't belong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do, however, agree with this.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont avoid pots that he's in like i do some other 2+2ers

[/ QUOTE ]


This is the part of the thread that jumps out at me.

[Entity]

I've got about 1200 hands on him and he's down $1. I'm sure that says loads about how viable his strategy is.

Rob

[sthief09]

obviously I have no idea, but think about what you'd need to do to accomplish this. first you'd need to defend just about anything. probably chop it to 15% fold bb to steal. then you have to start doing some floating with suited connectors and small pairs. then you'd have to basically play any 2 from the sb for a half bet and do lots of semicoldcalling.

the part that I don't think is possible is the AF. think about it. if I remember, you're around 29/22, and probably somewhere around a 2.2 AF. imagine adding all those hands and somehow not playing them any less aggressively than the others, or just playing those others much stronger.

then you have to deal with the swings. you'd probably have like a 25 SD, so it would be much worse. playing like that wihtout much of a WR you'd probably regularly see 300-500 bb downswings. not fun

I get your point, that preflop play means next to nothing especially shorthanded, but it is the foundation for good play. if postflop play really meant nothing then the really good players would be playing 80% of their hands and winning loads of money. the fact of the matter is there are certain hands you just can't play for a profit, and even if you could add them for 0 EV, the emotional stress would cost you money

[TheMetetron]

Nice post sthief. You point out why I'm an idiot. Adding all those hands while keeping aggression up and not being a maniac would be next to impossible to keep profitable.

[MicroBob]

why do you have to keep up agg on the extra hands??

i would also consider stealing more instead of defending more if i had to get to VP42.

but i think almost always defending AND reading your opp
really well COULD be possible.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you have to keep up agg on the extra hands??

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the title of the post is 43/22/2.17, and Meteron was claiming he could win 1bb/100 at 10/20 like that.

[noir]

Kindly explain.

[sthief09]

I was taking him as a base and adding hands. he's raising 22% already. I might buy it if the guy was 45/30/1.7

[MicroBob]

aha. ok.

i was just think vp and pfr.

i still think it could be done with more liberal blind-stealing and agg blind-defense (more 3-betting)

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Kindly explain.

[/ QUOTE ]


this is a strategy forum. this isn't a strategy post. it's a post about some random guy.

generally before making a post, the person should think "will this thread make Josh [me] a better player?" if the answer is no, then don't post it. this thread does not make anyone a better player, and that includes me so he shouldn't have posted it. simple right?

[noir]

I sought to clarify whether you objected to the thread on the whole or particular contributions. I believe it is implicit in my post that I'd prefer that this type of endeavor be done theoretically rather than using one particular player.

[MicroBob]

well...this is true too. so now we're possibly delving into letting this guy play a lot of extra hands aggressively...but to keep his PFR low he would need to open-limp or cold-call with some hands that you and I would raise with.


now I've got the ideal strategy for pulling this off being something weird like raising Q7o from the CO....but limping with AKs on the button.
Something like that anyway.

So you're sacrificing EV by trying to steal with a hand that you perhaps shouldn't be trying to steal with....and also not raising with a hand that you should be raising with.

But the combination of this weird strategy might STILL be profitable with really really good post-flop play.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I sought to clarify whether you objected to the thread on the whole or particular contributions. I believe it is implicit in my post that I'd prefer that this type of endeavor be done theoretically rather than using one particular player.

[/ QUOTE ]


I hadn't read your other post. I don't object to posting someone's name (unless there's reason to believe he contributes here). this type of post just doesn't belong here, as it doesn't make anyone better

[sthief09]

well there is some inherent value in raising Q7o which is you getting excess action when you have AKs, or AA for that matter... shania

[MicroBob]

i've seen the shania reference a couple of times in here but have no idea what it means.

[Trix]

Search the archieves for sredni vashtar posts.

[billyjex]

there's a big long post about shania in these archives but basically it refers to meta game, overall image, etc.

i see this wrx dude all the time, and i certaintly welcome him to the table more than a 21/16/2 guy. he plays too many hands, flat out.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i've seen the shania reference a couple of times in here but have no idea what it means.

[/ QUOTE ]



simplified:

let's say you raise only AA and KK UTG. you won't get any action from anyone who's paying attention. but then say you raise 32s and get to show it down. now, even though you're only raising those 3 hands, people will see the 32s and give you action on your AA/KK. so, even if raising 32s UTG is a losing play in itself, it might be a winner just because people will now think you're the crazy guy raising 32s UTG and give you lots of action when you do have AA/KK, which now makes your AA/KK mcuh more profitable purely as a result of your 32s raises

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
i certaintly welcome him to the table more than a 21/16/2 guy.

[/ QUOTE ]


I diagree on this count. he's way harder to read.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i certaintly welcome him to the table more than a 21/16/2 guy.

[/ QUOTE ]


I diagree on this count. he's way harder to read.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's putting himself in -EV situations with the hands he plays. at 22% he is raising crap sometimes. i'll just let my good hands come and get value out of him. I don't need to know his exact two cards to beat him everytime.

listen, i could put a 21/16 player on his hand a lot easier than this guy. am i going to be making money off of him? probably not.

i'm not saying wrx can't be a winner at 5/10, because a lot of players there are really, really, really bad. however, i don't mind his LAGgy self at my table because i can bet/raise my strong hands against him and get my mediocre hands to showdown against him.

my stats are 21/16/2. i pretty much know when i'm playing a 2+2er when i'm up against him because of the similar playing style/stats. and guess what.. i mix it up a little. i don't play the same against him all the time as i do against the donks.

not too say i'm amazing at this game, but just because i'm 21/16/2 doesn't mean i'm the most predictable guy at the table.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
i've seen the shania reference a couple of times in here but have no idea what it means.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shania by Sredni Vashtar (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=533592&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

Post Flop Application of Shania (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2190032&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1)

Read the posts by me and 1800Gambler in this thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=275593 6&Forum=f4&Words=%2Brange&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Ma in=2755483&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=11131&da terange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&olderty pe=&bodyprev=#Post2755936)

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i've seen the shania reference a couple of times in here but have no idea what it means.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shania by Sredni Vashtar (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=533592&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

Post Flop Application of Shania (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2190032&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1)

Read the posts by me and 1800Gambler in this thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=275593 6&Forum=f4&Words=%2Brange&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Ma in=2755483&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=11131&da terange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&olderty pe=&bodyprev=#Post2755936)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd read the outside two posts, but the one in the middle was really good. thanks.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh dear, not again.

[/ QUOTE ]

[meow_meow]

I've got a player in my db who's is a winner over 2k hands despite have preflop stats that make me salivate:

VPIP: 59, PFR: 4

His postflop play is also passive - Ag 0.6/0.8/1.3 - but not insanely stupid, with a bizzarely high W$SD of 43.

Part of what should make this strategy horrible is the rake this guy pays: 3.5BB/100.

He always single tables 5/10, and the table always has 2 or 3 TAG fish chasers, but he's still afloat.

Obviously 2k hands proves nothing, I just find it intriguing that he isn't heamorraging.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
at 22% he is raising crap sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]


not necessarily.

lots of 28/22 types around here are winning players.
they're not exactly raising with premium cards every time...but that doesn't mean they're raising with crap either.


-------------------



thanks for the shania threads guys. i'll check those out.

[sammy_g]

Am I the only one who thinks it's possible to win with these stats? You're not going to be 3BB/100, but you can win.

A good 5/10 veteran with 30/20/2 stats can win 3BB/100, no question. So we're talking about a +13 VPIP stat increase. Say someone makes these adjustments:

* Adds more stealing hands from CO and Button, say suited connectors and all pocket pairs.
* Completes more liberally from the SB in unraised pots, perhaps any two sooted, Kx type hands, and more offsuit connectors.
* Defends the BB with 2/3rds of his hands or so.
* Limps behind one limper with suited connectors and small pairs.
* Makes more isolation 3 bets with small pairs.

I think would get someone to 40+ VPIP. I'm not sure any of these plays are +EV, but I don't know if any of them are terrible.

The most interesting thing to me is his aggression factor. That is really high for a 43 VPIP. However, this stat takes a while to converge. How many hands do you have on this guy?

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
I've got a player in my db who's is a winner over 2k hands despite have preflop stats that make me salivate:

VPIP: 59, PFR: 4

His postflop play is also passive - Ag 0.6/0.8/1.3 - but not insanely stupid, with a bizzarely high W$SD of 43.

Part of what should make this strategy horrible is the rake this guy pays: 3.5BB/100.

He always single tables 5/10, and the table always has 2 or 3 TAG fish chasers, but he's still afloat.

Obviously 2k hands proves nothing, I just find it intriguing that he isn't heamorraging.

[/ QUOTE ]

It scares me that I am 90% sure I know this player and I am often one of the TAGs to his left. Incidentally, I just checked my stats and he has more of my money then I have of his. Go figure.