I'm leaking so much money :( [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Fryguy

08-24-2005, 10:52 PM

Played about 5000 hands at .50/1 on paradise, logged just under 2bb/100. Went to Empire yesterday, and after 1600 hands my bb/100 has dropped to .94 (read: I lost a ton of money). I'm pretty sure for whatever reason it's due to me just playing terribly.

Somebody please yell at me and/or give me some words of encouragement so that I can get my bb/100 back up to where it was /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

River: (7.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

River: (13 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Guruman

08-24-2005, 10:55 PM

fold hand one if you're going to play it that way. fold turn, fold river.

08-24-2005, 11:31 PM

Hand 1 - I fold this on the flop. Too many threats: flush, 99-AA, A8, etc. This would be different if I had a good redraw in clubs, but as it is it's a clear fold for me.

Hand 2 - Not much else you can do here. You made a long term +EV bet, and the cards didn't pan out.

Hand 3 - By the time he raises the turn, I'm fearing a set (probably QQ) and into check-calling mode.

In summary, I think your play is actually a little too aggressive in Hands 1 and 3. Maybe pay more attention to how many players see the flop?

Then again, I'm getting slaughtered this week on the Empire reload, so maybe I don't know jack, and I'll let the more experienced posters take it from here.

By the way, I think you've lost Hand 1 to a flopped flush, and Hand 2 to a low flush.

Cosimo

08-24-2005, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Went to Empire yesterday, and after 1600 hands my bb/100 has dropped to .94

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't understand enough about statistics to compute a confidence interval for 1600 hands, then I think you might continue to be frustrated by minor, short-term downswings like this.

Yes, minor.

Yes, short-term.

With a 15 BB/100h SD and an EV of 2BB/100h, you will make somewhere between -28 and +92 BB about two-thirds of the time. Let's say you play 1600 hands a day. Once every six weeks, you'll drop 100BB in a day.

If your results so far have been 1BB/100h, there's still about a 40% chance that you're not even a winning player.

This swinginess is good; that's why the fish play. If they were more likely to lose, it'd be more obvious that they should just stop throwing money away. However, a casual player can go months breaking even; even a mild upswing one week might be enough to convince them to throw money away the rest of the year.

RandBriscoe

08-24-2005, 11:47 PM

Hand #1 - Call the flop. No decent club folds here. Hope you get the chance to bet/raise a safe turn card.

FWIW, I think UTG+1 raises a flopped flush, already plenty of action. As a result, I'm inclined to 3-bet the turn.

Hand #2 - Flop call is ok. Bet the turn.

Hand #3 - Meh. Check/call after the turn raise.

Fryguy

08-24-2005, 11:56 PM

I totally understand the concept of a confidence interval. The fact that it happened in coincidence with a site change is what's making me so frustrated about it and questioning lots of things.

::whine::
I've since switched back to a standard layout on the site (I was using an all black screen, no chairs no nothing), and I think that hurt me somewhat as I noticed on occasion when rushed I was having problems quickly identifying table positions without the chairs present.
[/whine]

But to repeat, I'm well aware that 1600 hands isn't a lot, but it just feels like I did a LOT of losing, and a LOT of poor play, as I feel is exemplified at least to some extent by the hands I posted. The more I think about it, the more I realize it's probably a combination of 3 things:

1. a downswing
2. a new site, new opponents, new "feel"
3. possibly a bit of misreading the hand (position, players in hand, etc) due to the new interface and my zealous overdoing of a minimal looking interface.

All well, at least there was a bonus to soften the blow somewhat /images/graemlins/smile.gif

back to the tables tomorrow I guess.

Brice

08-25-2005, 12:15 AM

I think you have to bet the turn on hand #2. If it is raised behind you, call down. A bet here may chase away a lower flush with a weak-tight player that you can not beat.

On hand 1, UTG comes alive meaning he probably has a flush. However, you have some outs so it is worth sticking around in a large pot.

It is good to see you are not folding. Folding in these situations would be a mistake. Keep your head up.

Eeegah

08-25-2005, 12:28 AM

Hand 1: If there's ever a hand where you can fold top pair on the flop, this is it. Nearly every card except for an 8 or a J is bad for you, and the J/images/graemlins/club.gif isn't exactly hot either. Any 2, 4, 6 or 7 opens up the board to varying degrees of straight possilities and the rest put up overcards. Pokerstove says you only have 11.5% equity in this pot, and if you call you're putting in 16% of the pot--and raising puts in even more. Fold.

Hand 2: Just because there's 3 of a suit by the turn doesn't mean someone has the flush. I'd bet out here. I'd also bet out the flop, but I have a bad tendency to autobet when I raise preflop so don't put much weight into that. The river sucks and is mocking you: that's poker. Be glad you didn't lose more.

Hand 3: Call down after he raises the turn. I'm assuming you lost to AQ here.

Saint_D

08-25-2005, 12:35 AM

Hand 1.
This is very borderline trash PF. I think you should chuck it pre-flop. You are just getting odds to call for suited connectors. The jack makes up for the gap. It's still a borderline call.

Pairing your 8 on that board is pretty weak. We want at least a back door flush or strait to keep going. Fold the flop for sure.

hand 2.
Offsuit KQ doesn't play really well against a lot of players. You really prefer this hand HU against a weak limper. If you had been the button a raise is ok. I think I limp this from SB.

The turn puts you in an ugly spot. C/R and fold to the 3 bet?

Bet the river fold to a raise. (Clarkmeister theorem) You have a strong made hand on a 4 flush board. You might fold a T/images/graemlins/heart.gif or lower flush.

hand 3
Calling PF without reads is borderline. Reraise someone with low PRF standards, fold to someone tight.

After that, this hand looks pretty good. I expect the villain to turn over AA-QQ, AK AQ KQ QJ or maybe Ax.

-D

P.S. Don't feel too bad about your downswing. Sometimes they make you work harder and improve more than when you are running hot.

grjr

08-25-2005, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1.
This is very borderline trash PF. I think you should chuck it pre-flop. You are just getting odds to call for suited connectors. The jack makes up for the gap. It's still a borderline call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got to call with J8s on the button after 3 limpers. If you're folding this here you're missing out. In this hand it's a definate fold on the flop though.

TomBrooks

08-25-2005, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Somebody please yell at me

[/ QUOTE ]
Just cut out the bad play, Buster! Get your head together and focus! Stop fooling around! Shape up or ship out.

How's that?

beaster

08-25-2005, 08:15 AM

Hand 1 I fold preflop.

Hand 2 I'm a little puzzled by. My inclination would be to bet out on the turn -- were you looking to check-raise?

Hand 3 I'd slow up after I was raised on the turn. However, I've been known to play that hand the same way you did. Working on it.

08-25-2005, 08:53 AM

Hand 2: is a call on the flop the best play? You have 2 overs with no straight or flush draws, the board is fairly coordinated and you are up against 4 players. After MP1 and button call, there is 13SB in the pot, with two players to come. Your call gives UTG and UTG+2 14:1 to call. This hand will not play well multiway. I probably would have folded (weak?), but if you are going to play, wouldn't a raise be better (to fold overcard hands and make any flush draws pay)?

Also what does the flop check/call actually achieve? If there is no intention to check/raise, why not just bet out?

Sykes

08-25-2005, 10:02 AM

Hand #1 I fold preflop. J9s is the lowest I go with only 3 limpers. Plus I wouldn't even call the flop bet due to huge reverse implied odds. Either raise/fold river. You're usually not winning with the 2 pair.

Hand #2: I would just complete. You're out of position against a pretty big field. If this was suited, it's an easy raise. You need to bet the turn.

Hand #3: I would play it the same except I wouldn't 3 bet on the turn. It looks like your losing to AQ and he decided to slow-down to your set of 8s.

car ramrod

08-25-2005, 10:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river fold to a raise. (Clarkmeister theorem)

[/ QUOTE ]

You should not be doing this into 4 people. That was meant for oop head up.

theghost

08-25-2005, 10:31 AM

Hand 1: 3-bet the turn

Hand 2: bet the turn, see what happens. Then you should probably bet the river too, maybe you can fold a low heart.

Hand 3: I fold this preflop. Flop cap is good, turn 3-bet maybe not as good (but not too bad - no reads so I can't really tell), and I guess river bet is fine after he only called your turn 3-bet.

08-25-2005, 11:38 AM

Hand 1: Fold preflop or raise. If you going to play this hand with a potential of five other players I would at least try to eliminate the blinds with a raise. Once the flop hits you have to bail. You MAY be in front with top pair/mid kicker but I think there are too many cards that will have you drawing dead. Personally I wouldn't play this hand even though it is on the Button. Also, what was the table like?

Hand 2: Don't like the raise from 1st position with four people calling. You're not going to eliminate anyone and your hand isn't strong enough to raise. The flop couldn't have been any worse. Two of your over card outs are hearts and will probably hurt you, leaving you with six outs. Muck after the flop.

Hand 3: I think this hand was played pretty well, maybe a check/raise on the river. Obviously he doesn't have the ten but maybe AK, AQ, QQ. Any reads on MP2? /images/graemlins/club.gif

BatsShadow

08-25-2005, 12:09 PM

grunching:

Hand 1) Fold the river.
Hand 2) Bet the turn. I bet the the river too. There is nothing to suggest anyone has a flush on the turn. On the river, you might now be heads up if you had bet the turn.
Hand 3) Fold Preflop unless you have some crazy read.