Turn decision...

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

Villian is 69/25/1.5 over 46 hands. He has a cr% 2.0 which is large for an average fish, about average from a 2+2 perspective. It's not that useful because of the small sample size.

Krishan

[spamuell]

Seems like a pretty easy turn check to me. You have to call a checkraise, he's not calling both the turn and the river with many worse hands and the few straight draws he might have are fairly likely to bet the river as a bluff because it's the kind of scary board people will bluff at.

[stripsqueez]

i like checking the turn

from what little you have he is not afraid to raise and if you are check raised on the turn its horrible as you are unsure whether to call for the flush draw or call down because he might have a better flush draw but worse hand - its unlikely that giving a free card is going to make a lot of difference and he will often find the bo-bo bluff on the end

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Shillx]

What would you do with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif here? If you check that hand, you should check this (they are basically the same IMO). The pot is small enough that I like a check here. If the pot were say 10 BB then I wouldn't want him getting a free card with something like T8.

Brad

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

Seems like a pretty easy turn check to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Had a little bit of results oriented weakness.

Krishan

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has 7c 6c (one pair, sevens).
Hero has 9d 9s (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 5.25 BB. </font>

[spamuell]

You never know, he might actually have folded the turn had you bet.

[ddubois]

I think this may be one of those cases where it doesn't matter much which action you take, as long as you consider the metagame effects of the outcome.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this may be one of those cases where it doesn't matter much which action you take, as long as you consider the metagame effects of the outcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think this? It really seems like quite a clear check indeed to me.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this may be one of those cases where it doesn't matter much which action you take, as long as you consider the metagame effects of the outcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think this? It really seems like quite a clear check indeed to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt call it a "quite a clear" check. There are good reasons for betting. But I do like checking better

[ddubois]

There are so many variables to consider, and villan's range is so wide, it would take a great deal to fully convince me one action is clearly better than another.

Is this opponent peeling the flop with any two cards between 8 and ace? If so, they have anywhere from 6 to 12 outs; I surely don't mind him folding, and if he calls, that's fine too. If he wouldn't peel with those holdings, then that king shouldn't be especially scary.

You picked up a one-card diamond draw, but villian could have picked up one too. Maybe it's better than yours and he's got many outs (up to 19 outs w/ J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifTx). Maybe it's worse than yours but he'll call. Maybe he's got a pair. Maybe a straight draw. These are all value bets.

If he's got an ace, it's unlikely to be a big one, since he didn't 3-bet a button steal. If he's got a weak ace, is he less liekly to wait until the turn to check-raise, and more likely to go for a flop CR?

A turn bet might be a thin value bet and it might be a semi-bluff. Do you need to know which it is to make the bet?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this opponent peeling the flop with any two cards between 8 and ace? If so, they have anywhere from 6 to 12 outs; I surely don't mind him folding, and if he calls, that's fine too. If he wouldn't peel with those holdings, then that king shouldn't be especially scary.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem is he isn't that loose. The likely hands for him to call the flop are an ace, flush draw, middle or bottom pair. It's not likely that he'll call an ace high board against me with undercards.

Krishan

[baronzeus]

Can someone please explain why this is a check? in a blind steal situation I am betting here every time. Maybe I am just taking Jason Pohl's articles too literally.


But why give any straight/higher flush a chance to draw to a better hand?

I'm genuinely wondering, because I can imagine myself in this situation and I'm betting. Why are we giving him credit for a better hand? He'll probably call the flop with any pair, a gutshot, a straight draw, etc, right?

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone please explain why this is a check? in a blind steal situation I am betting here every time. Maybe I am just taking Jason Pohl's articles too literally.


But why give any straight/higher flush a chance to draw to a better hand?

I'm genuinely wondering, because I can imagine myself in this situation and I'm betting. Why are we giving him credit for a better hand? He'll probably call the flop with any pair, a gutshot, a straight draw, etc, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

i second this. can someone explain?

[baronzeus]

I keep reading stripsqueez's explanation and he seems to agree because we will snap off lots of bluffs. but why give free cards on such a scary board strip? /images/graemlins/confused.gif


thanks

[Lmn55d]

I just want to chime in that I think you're gonna be checkraised a very high percentage of the time here. Guys with stats like this usually aren't check/calling twice or check/calling then check/folding. With draws they go to war on the flop and with pairs they often wait till turn to checkraise you. I like a check behind here he's bluffing the river probably 95% of the time anyway and he probably has few outs if behind. Without diamond you should bet.

[DMBFan23]

the pot is small, and part (or all, or even more) of what we lose by giving a free card to worse hands, we get back by snapping off bluffs, getting a free card, avoiding being checkraised (which despite our decent hand and posibility of outs - it's doubtful he has both an ace AND a higher diamond - is a shitty spot to be in), and inducing river calls with hands that might not have called the turn. letting someone spike a J or a Q is an evil that we may have to allow here - who knows, they may spike the Jd or Qd and pay us off when he would have folded.

EDIT: I'm thinking of 10/20 where, from what I read, one needs to take a "get to showdown" mentality sometimes with good but not excellent hands. obviously against loose passive players you need to value bet more, etc.

[Lmn55d]

ya, nice post.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
the pot is small, and part (or all, or even more) of what we lose by giving a free card to worse hands, we get back by snapping off bluffs, getting a free card, avoiding being checkraised (which despite our decent hand and posibility of outs - it's doubtful he has both an ace AND a higher diamond - is a shitty spot to be in), and inducing river calls with hands that might not have called the turn. letting someone spike a J or a Q is an evil that we may have to allow here - who knows, they may spike the Jd or Qd and pay us off when he would have folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh.

Krishan

[baronzeus]

ahh ok well i need to start checking these then. i am gearing up to move to 10/20 in a week or two and need to prep myself.

[ddubois]

Maybe 5/10 this is a 'doesn't matter', and 10/20 this is a check.